Originally, this piece was going to be crafted as a look at the race for the wildcard in the National League. A quick glance at the standings will show you the teams involved (excluding Chicago and Houston) all reside in the tightly-bunched NL East. Although all of the East teams are .500 or better, no team from the East will be able to win the wildcard with so many games left against each other.
Houston pulled off one of the great comeback stories in wildcard history when they snuck up and past everyone a season ago. There is little reason to doubt they could do it again. Health always remains an issue when discussing the Cubs, but IF IF IF Mark Prior and Kerry Wood are healthy, the Cubbies will make a run. That's why the only hopes for an NL East squad to make the postseason remain
New York Mets
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No team still in contention in the National League has been more consistent at being inconsistent than the Mets. Win two, lose one, win one, lose three. That has been the M.O. all season. The Mets haven't won more than three games in a row since May, and although the NL East race is tight, you can't expect to win hovering around the .500 mark all season long.
Schedule
The rest of July will have the Mets face the Padres, Dodgers, Rockies, and Astros. If this is to be a contending team, they will have to be at least 4-5 games above .500 playing three of their four series against the weak NL West. August has matchups against the Pirates, Giants, and Diamondbacks on the soft side, but the Cubs, Nationals, and Phillies on the strong side. No team in baseball has played better against the Nationals then the Mets, and they have also owned the Phillies.
If they didn't run into the Braves, with whom they still have six more meetings with in September, they could very well with the NL East. If they happen to be right near the top of the standings in the final weekend of the season, they finish at home against Colorado. How much better of a final opponent could one receive?
Trade Deadline
The common question come the trading deadline is who will buy and who will sell. The Mets should do neither. Although it's not fashionable to keep a team together in this day and age, if the Mets can do just that, they should be the first to dethrone the Braves within the next two seasons. With David Wright and Jose Reyes still learning to be big-leaguers, GM Omar Minaya better steer clear of going all Steve Phillips at the deadline. They only part they should move, but most likely will not be able to is Mike Piazza. He will be a free-agent come seasons end, and all indications show that he will not be returning to Queens.
Key to October
Consistency. They do have enough talent and starting pitching to make it to the postseason. Carlos Beltran has not lived up to his potential, but has shown the flashes of brilliance that prompted the Mets to spend more than $100 million to acquire him. Pedro Martinez is healthy and dominant, and when Cliff Floyd, Beltran, and Mike Cameron are firing on all cylinders, there are very few outfields capable of smashing more home runs then the Mets. Unfortunately, they are a year or two away from putting it all together.
Florida Marlins
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Coming into the season, this was a fashionable pick to finally dethrone Atlanta's dominance in the NL East. However, after coming out of the gate hot, the Marlins are drowning in the Florida humidity. Their pitching staff, with the exception of Dontrelle Willis, has been sketchy. The Al Leiter project didn't work, and A.J. Burnett appears to be on the first train out of Miami as soon as they can work an acceptable deal. Will Josh Beckett ever be healthy again? If its not a blister, it's a strained muscle or a bruised ego that constantly keeps him from being penciled in.
Schedule
The Fish wrap up July with games at San Francisco, and home against Pittsburgh and Washington. The NATOs are followed up by a trip to St. Louis before things calm with a two-week stretch seeing the Reds, Rockies, Diamondbacks, and Giants. September will sink Florida. The Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Astros, and Braves are the only opponents Florida will face, with 15 of those 22 games on the road. Florida finishes at home against Atlanta in what no doubt will be a meaningful game — for Atlanta.
Trade Deadline
It seems borderline inconceivable that Florida would be shopping not only A.J. Burnett, but Mike Lowell, and shopping them in a package together. Lowell makes a ton of money, one of the factors keeping some suitors away, but what can the Marlins get back in return? If the Marlins are to trade Burnett, they should hold him until the last minute before the deadline to get a desperate team to bite on a solid three starter at best (see the Mets' deal for Carlos Zambrano in 2004).
Key to October
Survive September. An easy schedule in August will have to propel Florida out of the basement, because going .500 in September will be an extremely daunting task. Dontrelle Willis has shown a propensity to have a severe drop off in the second-half of the season, and Beckett will most assuredly be injured with missing genitalia disorder.
Philadelphia Phillies
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Who would have thought the Phillies would get better production at first base with Jim Thome out of the lineup? Ryan Howard has been on fire since replacing the injured slugger in the lineup, smashing 4 home runs and 13 knocked in since taking over. The worst thing the Phillies have going for them, however, is playing at home. Citizens Bank Park is creeping up on Coors Field and the Juice Box in Houston for the best launching pad in the league. The loss of Randy Wolf has not helped a pitching rotation with a team ERA of 4.59. Can't blame the defense with the lowest total number of errors (45 at press time) in the league.
Schedule
The Phillies close out July with the Dodgers, Padres, Astros, and Rockies, with their final seven games on the road. The Cubs will be in the city of brotherly shove to begin August, but the Nationals, Padres, and Mets to close August will be their toughest opponents all month. September will be almost as difficult for the Phills as it will be for the aforementioned Marlins. The Phillies will see the Braves seven times, the Mets four times, as well as the Marlins six times. The only reprieve in September will be the 23-26 against the Reds. They will close at Washington during the final weekend of the season.
Trade Deadline
Dump Billy Wagner. Teams should be salivating at the prospect of landing the closer, even if he will only be on loan through the end of the year. Wagner has been pretty adamant in his stance that he has little desire to return to the Phillies. If the Red Sox could find a way to look past the internal nonsense plaguing Beantown as of late, Wagner would already be in a Sox uniform.
Dump Jim Thome, if you can. Every team still in the hunt could use a bat, and there is plenty of tread left on the tires of Thome. The Phills will have to assume some of that monster contract, but it will be well worth it in return with Howard ready to take first, and young prospects that are MLB-ready.
Key to October
Forget the past. Whether it's Larry Bowa or Charlie Manuel or Emanuel Lewis, no one can get the full potential out of the Phillies. There is always dissension, always turmoil, always mediocre baseball. Much like Florida, September will knock Philadelphia out of the race and the opportunity to ship out Wagner and Thome is a clear-cut sign this team needs to rebuild and start fresh.
Washington Nationals
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The feel-good story of the first half of the season is starting to crash back to reality. Livan Hernandez has been nothing short of a stud, but can you name anyone else on the rotation? Chad Cordero has been simply amazing, but how many times can you squeak out one-run wins? The Nationals have lived dangerously all year, but with juggernauts like the Brewers and Rockies taking series from you, the fairy tale is starting to turn end with a violent thud.
Schedule
After tanking a very winnable two-week stretch of their schedule, they close July with the Astros, Braves, and Marlins. August will see games against the Padres, Astros, and Cardinals, but also the Rockies and Reds. A very balanced month. September will see all NL East foes with the exception of a six-game stretch against the Padres and Giants. If they are to hold onto the division lead, they will have the opportunity to sink every team in it with seven against Florida, six against the Mets, and tilts against Philly and Atlanta.
Trade Deadline
Are they allowed to make anymore deals? The acquisition of Preston Wilson won't set the world on fire, but at least the 29 other teams that own the squad gave them some help. They could use some help offensively, but there is very little to get and very little chance they could get it.
Key to October
Remain confident. No one expected them to get this far, use that as your battle cry. Play with a chip on your shoulder. If you don't know how, Jose Guillen will be more than happy to show you. Frank Robinson can only take these guys so far, it's up to the core (Guillen, Wilkerson, Hernandez) to get them to the promised land. It's not inconceivable, but it remains unlikely.
Atlanta Braves
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How in the world are the Braves in second place? Injuries should have decimated this team. The fact that the starting outfield at the start of the season was Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi should have decimated this team. Having more rookies than a NBA summer league team should have decimated this team. Watching your closer blow game after game should have decimated this team. Yet they are ready to pounce on Washington and head back to the playoffs. Andruw Jones would get serious MVP run if the Lee boys (Carlos and Derrek) weren't putting up Triple Crown numbers. He single-handedly has carried this team, and is finally reaching the status of a complete baseball player instead of just a gifted defensive star.
Schedule
Closing out July at Arizona, vs. Washington, and vs. the Pirates will not exactly strike fear into the hearts of men. August sees the Reds, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Brewers on the schedule, once again making August the month the Braves can steamroll the competition and regain their seat on the throne. Much like the other NL East teams opponents, the only squads out of the NL East Atlanta will face will be the Reds and Rockies. If the other four teams in the division can't pound on the Braves, this race will be over by mid-month.
Trade Deadline
Do nothing. The return of Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton to the rotation will be as if they were midseason acquisitions. The same could be said of the return of Chipper Jones. The future and present are bright for Atlanta. There is no reason to mortgage the future when the division is so winnable in the present while standing pat.
Key to October
Play Braves baseball. Until they lose, they are the favorite. No team in Major League Baseball finds more ways to win (in the regular season) than Atlanta. They get the clutch hits, the timely pitching, and how often do you see Atlanta lose games themselves? They have to be beaten, and Bobby Cox has made an art form out of avoiding self-implosion.
In the end, the Braves are your NL East champions.
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