Making Fantasy (Football) a Reality

Ah, fantasy football. As we hose the blackened residue of our Fourth of July celebration off our driveways, we diehard football fanatics savor our own celebratory pyrotechnics popping, hissing, and shimmering in the skies of our minds. Much to the dismay of our spouses, significant others, dogs, cats, and co-workers, the yearly grandeur celebrating our nation's Independence Day not only symbolizes the birth of the planet's finest country, but also serves as the unofficial starting gun for this nation's finest pastime — fantasy football.

As I'm sure any reader currently engrossed in this article can attest to, pretty much every website, chat room, sports television show, and football magazine universally offer up their time-tested, tried and true, lead-pipe locks for dominance in your particular fantasy football league beginning at just about this time each and every year. Not to be outdone, Sports Central could not be left off of this pseudo-psychotic smorgasbord of football information, and this article will serve as just that medium.

While nothing on this page should be considered a "lead-pipe lock" and by no means is any information you glean from this writ "time-tested," it can be fairly stated that the content of this article is every bit as accurate as that you would read in syndication or anything you'd hear from persons calling themselves Hector, Victor or the Swami.

Without giving up any trade secrets, these are anything but fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants guesses. Rankings are based loosely on my own opinion, which, as un-scientific as that sounds, is based firmly on statistical analysis, team tendencies and philosophies, 2005 scheduling analysis, and offseason team additions or subtractions. As with any other predictions found under this by-line, all projections, both positive and negative, are based on information current as of the moment this article was submitted.

In homage to America's Birthday, the analysis herein will be presented with a patriotic flair. For all you historians out there, you can skip to the next paragraph of this composition. As for everyone else, let me briefly explain my ranking system.

If a player is "Crossing the Delaware," he is considered to be leading the charge and should be a top-shelf fantasy play in 2005. A player said to be in "Rochambeau's Infantry" denotes that, like the French, he is a valuable commodity if utilized properly. It should be noted that, also like the French, there are far more question marks surrounding those included in this group and any relations with members in this group should be handled with trepidation.

The third and final group, "Arnold's Army" (as in Benedict Arnold), are traitorous individuals who promise the goods, but bring nothing but misery and shattered dreams to any owner foolish enough to buy into their false promise.

Quarterbacks

Crossing the Delaware: There are the obvious choices here, in the form of Indy's Peyton Manning, Philly's Donovan McNabb, and the Vikes' Daunte Culpepper, who rate one, two, and three respectively. Manning's indomitable ability to chuck the pigskin sets him comfortable atop the QB value chart, but McNabb in particular is closing rather quickly, with or without T.O. in uniform (McNabb's 2003 numbers were definite precursors to his '04 season, though the addition of Owens certainly marginalized his developmental curve).

While Culpepper loses some value with the departure of Randy Moss to Oakland, he's still a very productive numbers guy who will feel the impact of a Randy Moss-less offense more in the form of interceptions thrown as opposed to taking a real yardage or touchdown hit.

Beyond the three, there are two up-and-comers who slide into my list of sure-fire stat mavens this season — Jacksonville's Byron Leftwich and the Houston Texans' David Carr. Leftwich has shown signs since his rookie campaign, in which he had more than one gigantic stat game, and has a very favorable schedule in 2005. As for Carr, his main go-to-guy, Andre Johnson, has come into his own and with a relatively cupcake schedule, the four-year pro is poised to explode into fantasy royalty.

Rochambeau's Infantry: While some have the Rams' Marc Bulger as a top-line fantasy performer, he still has lacked the consistency to be considered a sure bet. The Rams do feature a soft schedule with the entire division facing enormous question marks in their respective defensive backfields. But alas, Bulger should face a substantial amount of pressure, which translates into mistakes for a turnover-prone St. Louis offense and will ultimately keep Bulger from his very real potential for a 4,500-yard and 30-touchdown season.

Michael Vick is one big-time receiver away from top flight status himself who will easily trounce his passing numbers from last year with another season of familiarity with his new offensive scheme. Even with his inconsistent passing, Vick's 1,000-yard rushing potential ranks him as a top scorer in most fantasy formats and only his week-to-week unpredictability keeps him from being a top-15 fantasy draftee. Jake Delhomme is the third of this not-quite-ready-for-primetime posse who, if provided a healthy Steve Smith and some semblance of a running game, can give any owner a level of comfort on a weekly basis.

Arnold's Army: To say the New York Jets have a rough schedule may be the most understated assessment to date. There is simply very little breathing room in terms of their opponents' defensive strength. As such, Chad Pennington, who generally lets owners down with an injury, makes a very poor fantasy play this season, even if he does stay healthy for a full slate of games.

Drew Bledsoe is a vogue pick to click this season, but let's not forget that no matter who is yelling at him on the sidelines or what color uniform he is wearing, he still has Drew Bledsoe's lack of poise in the pocket, which is almost always good for 15-20 interceptions thrown. Further, the run-first Cowboys won't score nearly enough touchdowns to offset those negative points.

Trent Green is the foreman of this holy triumvirate, with his deteriorating offensive line, aging and overused Priest Holmes/Tony Gonzalez combo, and his maddening lack of consistency at the receiver position. Better defense equals less offensive points for the Chiefs, which may lead to more wins, but certainly puts a damper on Green's value.

Running Backs

Crossing the Delaware: This year's cream of the crop has it all too good — sunny San Diego weather, emerging talent all around him, coaching staff committed to utilizing his substantial skill — of course I am referring to LaDanian Tomlinson. While the Chargers play a first-place schedule, Tomlinson excels in the red zone and in the passing game, which gives him the intangibles needed to edge out his peers for the clear top spot among all runners.

Priest Holmes, though aging and injury-prone, is still ridiculously proficient as a touchdown-scorer and even playing three-quarters of the season is a solid option in all league formats. Tiki Barber of the Giants has eliminated his fumble-itis and has been rejuvenated by the commitment to him as a power runner Tom Coughlin has made. The Texans' Domanick Davis loses some value being kept out of most goal-line situations, but more than makes up for it with his receiving numbers and ease of schedule.

Freshly-freed Jamal Lewis is a monstrously productive runner who will be scampering with a purpose this year as he looks to dispel any residual character questions. Beyond those five, Seattle's Shaun Alexander, Buffalo's Willis McGahee, Dallas's Julius Jones, the Pats' Corey Dillon, and the Rams' Steven Jackson round out the top.

Rochambeau's Infantry: Generally, an ever-deepening pool of running backs is good news to most any owner in most any league format. Unfortunately, the current crop of runners may be evening out in talent for all the wrong reasons, as the elite backs are beginning to wear down as the youngsters get their legs under them both literally and figuratively. Still, the mid-rounds can be a veritable buffet of low-risk, high-reward performers. Players like Minnesota's Michael Bennett, Carolina's DeShaun Foster, Arizona's J.J. Arrington, Miami's Ronnie Brown, and Oakland's Lamont Jordan all can be had between the third and sixth round, which is where most league championships are won.

Bennett will need to stay healthy, but certainly won't be the center of attention for any defense the Vikes face and stands to gain much more red zone exposure with Moss' move west. Foster also fights an injury-riddled career bio, but could emerge as one of the game's most effective speed/power combos if he does manage to play a full schedule. Arrington and Brown are both rookies in name, but showed tremendous poise in college and should have no problems coping with the NFL's pressure-packed atmosphere. Both can catch the football and both will be playing on vastly improved squads, further enhancing their value to an owner in search of consistency. Lamont Jordan could be the most interesting case of all, as he'll be introduced into a wide-open offensive scheme in Oakland and could potentially make good use of the potential he has been rumored to have as he's languished on the Jet bench.

Arnold's Army: Speaking of those Jets, Curtis Martin will be praying for Jordan as a backup by midseason, as their brutal schedule pits them against some of the most formidable run-stuffing defenses in football. Many owners will look at Martin's history and last year's success as definite signs that this guy is top-15 material, but more savvy fantasy participants will recognize that the heavy load faced last year will not help shuffle the stacked deck Martin's Jets face this season.

Carolina's little-known backup Nick Goings is a strange bedfellow to the well-known Martin on this list, but the injury histories of Stephen Davis and Foster will cause some owners to focus on Goings' strong finish last season. Unfortunately, Goings was a one-hit wonder whose 15 minutes were up last January. Tatum Bell is another whose name echoes throughout most every fantasy football cheat sheet that I've seen to this point. While Bell is certainly a talent-in-training, smart money says that a very determined and underrated Maurice Clarett will cut into his playing time and, more importantly, his short yardage (read: goal line) carries. Factor in the league's second hardest running schedule (behind only the Jets) and Bell may be a reach if taken inside of the first seven rounds.

Wide Receivers

Crossing the Delaware: Anybody who can attract an audience (other than me, of course, but it does remain to be seen just how much of an audience I can attract) will direct you to steer clear of Terrell Owens. I'm selling that stock precipitously. Owens is a man among boys and whether he's injured, sullen, spoiled, or a damn serial killer, you cannot argue with his production. He'll play this season, new contract or not, and he'll produce fantastically this season, new contract or not.

The clear number two guy is, as usual, Randy Moss, only this time he's wearing a different uniform. While there is little truth to the rumor that Al Davis has changed his trademark slogan to "Just throw it to Moss, baby," you can bet your salary that is exactly what Kerry Collins does.

Numbers three, four, and five on my WR list may cause some head-scratching, as they each may not be as well-known as some of their contemporaries. There is no denying that the Titan's Drew Bennett has his stars aligned for a gigantic statistical season, what with the departure of that pesky stat-hoarding Derrick Mason and the very clear maturation Bennett showed last season, especially in the red zone.

The Bears' Muhsin Muhammad was huge last season in Carolina and, while he may lose something in Chicago's rebuilding offensive system, his raw skill is breathtaking and he could easily duplicate his gaudy numbers from a year ago. Larry Fitzgerald gives the Cardinals a weapon that went virtually unnoticed last year, even though he did put up very respectable rookie numbers and, with Kurt Warner chucking bombs this season, should show the game-breaking ability to make the big play we became accustomed to seeing from Larry in college. The usual suspects round out the top-10, with the Colts' dynamic duo of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, the Rams' ultra-consistent Torry Holt, the unsung Hines Ward of Pittsburgh, and the Bengals' superstar wideout Chad Johnson.

Rochambeau's Infantry: Lee Evans of the Bills is one player whose performance is almost totally linked to the development of another. If J.P. Losman winds up being even an adequate QB, which is exceedingly likely, Evans should flourish as both a big-play deep threat and a red zone stalwart and could be the horsepower behind a powerful sports car of an offense. Conversely, if Losman is a flop, Evans will be little more than a very fancy hood ornament on a rusted out El Dorado. Smart money says Losman has his ups and his downs, which would create the same result for the young Evans.

Steve Smith of the Panthers is a player who, coming off injury, may slide under a lot of owner's radars. Smith is fast, strong, tough, and driven and will undoubtedly produce. The Pats' Deion Branch also falls into that category of low-flying prospects that have consistently delivered when healthy and should not be overlooked. The Buccaneers' second-year receiver, Michael Clayton, could well be one of the more productive players this season and is certainly worth consideration anytime after round five.

Quincy Morgan of the Cowboys' should realize his substantial potential with a full year under Parcells, but some caution should be paid to the obvious fact that tight end Jason Witten and running backs Julius Jones and Anthony Thomas will undoubtedly be the beneficiaries of what little red zone opportunities Dallas gets.

Arnold's Army: For all the ability and potential for greatness Buffalo's Evans shows, his veteran counterpart Eric Moulds shows equal potential for failure. While Moulds has consistently proven that he is a Pro Bowl-caliber player, it seems very unlikely that Moulds will put up Pro Bowl-type numbers with essentially a rookie quarterback and a renewed focus on a very gifted running back (Willis McGahee). Factor in Evans' red zone proficiency last season and the writing is on the wall for Moulds. Hopefully, any owner reading this article will heed that writing and will stay away from wasting an early pick on Moulds.

This might seem obvious to some, but any receiver from the Cleveland Browns should be avoided at all costs, especially since tight end Kellen Winslow, Jr. has once again defied convention by his part in asinine activities and/or comments. The Browns have a very rough schedule, have no offensive line, an unproven running back-by-committee approach, and Trent Dilfer at quarterback. Yuck. The Chargers' Keenan McCardell has shown a propensity for being a quality possession receiver, which is fine in yardage only leagues, but his touchdown numbers will never be big as long as Antonio Gates and LaDanian Tomlinson are around and the return of Reche Caldwell from injury will surely marginalize his productivity.

Tight Ends

Crossing the Delaware: No position is easier to figure than the tight end position. There is a very real skill set that almost universally guarantees productivity relative to fantasy football — 6'3" to 6'6" in height, relatively fleet of foot, good hands, short passing offense — still, there are a small handful of these offensive focal points that annually can be expected to rise above the rest. Antonio Gates of the Chargers is tops on this list, and may be one of those players that revolutionized the position. He is better in traffic than his two predecessors, Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe, and Gates is better equipped to battle for "jump balls" in tight quarters.

Baltimore's Todd Heap is more receiver than tight end, but we don't care about all that in the realm of fantasy football and even could prefer that type to those who sustain a more regular beating as an inline blocker. The Giants' Jeremy Shockey should be poised to finally fulfill his tremendous potential by staying healthy throughout the year and will get many looks as Eli Manning grows into his role as New York's signal-caller of the future. Two unsung tight ends in Dallas' Jason Witten and San Francisco's Eric Johnson both will capitalize on some red zone opportunities to score big at their position in the world of fantasy football.

Rochambeau's Infantry: Miami's Randy McMichael is already considered one of the top receiving tight ends in football, but his numbers should be even better as Miami cannot possibly have as poor a red zone offense as they did last season. As such, he should last longer than his ability would ordinarily slot him in fantasy drafts, and should be jumped on as one of the top tight ends selected.

Jerramy Stevens of the Seahawks is not only an enigma because of the bizarre manner in which he spells his first name, but also as a result of his strangely haphazard attitude and actions relative to football. Stevens is a talent, to be sure, and just might eventually act on that potential and be the player Seattle thought they were drafting a few years back. With a reluctant Shaun Alexander, no Koren Robinson and a strong offensive line, look for Stevens to get a lot of opportunities to produce.

The Patriots' Ben Watson is good enough to start on most any team, and may or may not beat out incumbent starter Daniel Graham, but even as a second tight end option, Watson is destined for greatness and is a good fit in the New England offense. Even if Watson catches fewer than three dozen balls this season, a third of those could be touchdowns, which would put him in elite company in terms of fantasy football scoring at his position.

The Jets' Doug Jolley is one of the only skill position players on that team that deserves a second look. Herm Edwards has been force-feeding his ill-equipped tight ends for years and now they have one who is the real deal as a receiver. Though it is very likely going to be a down year for Pennington and the Jet offense on the whole, someone has to produce, and smart money says that someone is Jolley.

Arnold's Army: The Colts' Dallas Clark has a lot of expectations linked to his performance. However, without Pollard in the mix, Clark is no longer an afterthought for defensive schemes and his lack of foot speed will create separation problems from opponents' top cover linebacker or safety. Look for a down year from Clark, certainly not a year worthy of the higher pick some owners will use on the Indianapolis tight end.

New England's Graham will fall off from a production standpoint for little more reason than the aforementioned emergence of his counterpart. With Graham's end zone production last year, some owners will undoubtedly reach for him — don't be that owner. Finally, in what may ultimately win the "it goes without saying" award, Kellen Winslow, Jr. should be indelibly removed from any and all cheat sheets. Most will know why, those who don't, well, just trust me on this one.

Team Defenses

I've treated team defenses a little bit differently in these rankings, as they are almost religiously hard to figure out and my explanations would almost certainly bore you to tears, or worse, bore you into closing this article. So, rather than pour over a bunch of names that you barely know or talk about the subtle differences between a cover-2 defensive scheme and a 46 defense (differences aren't all that subtle, now that I think about it, but I digress), I'll simply present, in list form, the five best and five worst team defenses relative to fantasy football.

Before you send your hate mail, please take into account that in fantasy football, special teams performance and turnovers created (or lack thereof) factor in greatly to these rankings.

Best of the Best

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. San Diego Chargers
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Detroit Lions

They Put the "B" in Bad

1. New Orleans Saints
2. Cleveland Browns
3. St. Louis Rams
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Tennessee Titans

Though I'm sure some post-Independence Day fireworks will emerge from the reading of this article, I do again want to assure all you readers out there (yeah, that's right, both of you) that there actually was a something more than random dart throwing or closed-eye pointing involved in these fantasy rankings.

Ultimately, a true fantasy football champion needs a consistent core to his or her team, more than a couple surprise performers and a lion's share of good fortune. Hopefully, these ratings will help in reaching one or more of those intended results.

Unless you are in one of my leagues, in which case, I made it all up.