2005 NFL Preview: Atlanta Falcons

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Last Year

The Atlanta Falcons have had their own war of the worlds the past couple of seasons with and without Michael Vick. After their lives were shaken violently by a long-lasting Vick injury in 2003, they were thrilled to get their protagonist back in a fulltime role last season. He consistently displayed his irreplaceable value and eventually led the franchise to its second NFC Championship game ever.

The Falcons' running backs were also a large reason for the team's success as they ran like aliens were chasing them and carried the scoring load throughout the season. A lack of offensive balance eventually led to the Falcons' demise, but that is one area that they will look to address as they head into 2005 with high standards.

What We Learned From Last Year

As Jim Mora, Jr. took over as the full-time Falcons' head coach, his enthusiasm generated a buzz around the NFC South squad. His original focus was to teach Michael Vick a variation of the West Coast offense and keep him in the pocket as a passing quarterback.

That plan failed miserably as Vick was rarely comfortable in the pocket and was even less effective as a passer.

The statistics were downright frightening:

Passing offense: ranked 30th
Passing touchdowns: ranked 28th
Vick's completion percentage (of QBs who started at least nine games): ranked 27th
Vick's quarterback rating: ranked 20th
Vick's passing yards per game: ranked 30th

Mora tried to stick to the script as long as he could, but it became evident that keeping Vick in the pocket was more dangerous than letting him run free.

Even the addition of Alex Gibbs to the coaching staff, along with his offensive line expertise, didn't translate for the Falcons in their pass protection.

Vick was trashed in the pocket and had the highest per-game sack average. The only quarterback to be dropped more than him was David Carr, but he played one more game.

But even when he did have time to throw, Vick had very few options to look at. Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler emerged as a favorite target as he was on the receiving end of nearly a third of all of Vick's completions. The rest of the receiving corps was completely useless. The overpaid Peerless Price underachieved in his first season as a Falcon, but was even more of a disappointment in year two. He had zero 100-yard receiving games and finished with three touchdowns and less than 600 yards on the season. 2004 first-round selection Michael Jenkins was never a factor — he had seven receptions as a rookie — as his development was unhurried.

While Mora's magic touch wasn't evident in the passing game, his fingerprints were all over the league's first-ranked running game. Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett, and Michael Vick all averaged at least four yards a carry and combined for 20 rushing touchdowns. Dunn received most of the handoffs — and recognition — but Duckett quietly put together another strong season. He averaged 4.9 yards a carry and only had one less touchdown than Dunn (8).

The Falcons' offensive play last season is reminiscent of the 2004-05 Phoenix Suns. When they could run wild in the regular season, they seemed unstoppable, but when they were forced to slow their game down and execute against quality NFC opponents, such as the Philadelphia Eagles, they just couldn't do it.

Defensively, the Falcons were in the middle of the pack. They were pretty much just okay at everything they did. They played smart, rarely gave up long distance plays, and kept the game close.

The one area where they did excel was generating sacks, but even though they led the league in that category, they still never struck fear in any opponents. The addition of Rod Coleman was quite possibly the greatest reason for that as he forced opponents to pay a ton of attention to him on the defensive line. That freed up Patrick Kerney to set a new career-high for sacks with 13.

Aside from Coleman, the defense was fairly weak up the middle and could have been much worse had safety Bryan Scott not emerged as a quality strong safety.

One key note to observe about the Falcons was their time of possession. Although they ran the ball 58% of the time, and were obviously successful doing so, their defense was still on the field more than the offense (offensive TOP 29:10, defensive TOP 30:50). Other quality rushing teams such as Pittsburgh (defensive TOP 26:01) and Denver (defensive TOP 27:23) were able to give their defense some more rest.

This Year

The Dirty South has become a seasoned hotbed for the rap game, but the talent in Atlanta isn't only limited to kicking lyrics.

The Falcons have kept their core of football talent together and have added a couple of other goodies to the roster.

Their offseason 1-2 step of adding wide receiver Roddy White (draft) and linebacker Ed Hartwell (free agent) addresses two immediate needs: offensive swagger and defensive toughness.

While the expectations on White will not be lofty in the beginning, he should give a shot in the arm to a horrific receiving corps. Matter of fact, he already has. His voice alone has added a hint of cockiness and a sense of confidence to a fairly quiet offense. The Atlanta-Journal Constitution listed some of his memorable quotes from his time in college at Alabama-Birmingham:

"I don't know why y'all even showed up today. It's going to be real ugly."

"I will never be guarded by you no matter how hard you try."

"My little brother could be out here doing his thing and scoring a couple touchdowns against you."

He hasn't just been talking — he's been walking the walk and coaches are impressed with his ability to suck in any pass in his vicinity.

The staff has also liked the way Michael Jenkins has moved in his second season and the one-time incumbent, Peerless Price, will have his hands full in training camp simply vying for a starting job.

The passing game wants some sugar, gimme some, but it still remains unproven. The offensive line is a weakness and until Vick can exhibit an accurate passing arm, this offense is still a one-trick pony.

After the Philadelphia Eagles laid out a perfect blueprint to stymie Vick and the air attack in the Championship Game, the Falcons should expect to see more of the same type of defense from their 2005 opponents. The key is to limit the running game by clogging the box with eight or nine defenders, make sure the defensive linemen keep containment, and force every gain to come through the air.

What are they going to do if the passing game hasn't progressed any since last year? I'll tell you what, they will fail a lot more.

On defense, the pop-tart squad that was soft in the middle should get a boost from Ed Hartwell. The combination of Chris Draft and Jamie Duncan was not adequate, but Hartwell can be a tackling machine when he gets crunked up. He's averaged 75 tackles over the last three years playing next to Ray Lewis and his presence should allow Keith Brooking to pass rush more often.

The secondary and defensive line remain strong with only one conceivable breach: strong safety. Bryan Scott filled that void last season, but he is being moved to free safety while Keion Carpenter and Ronnie Heard will compete for the other safety job.

The rest of the defensive backfield is robust. DeAngelo Hall and Jason Webster only started 10 games last year and with Kevin Mathis as the nickel down corner, the Falcons have one of the better secondaries.

The defensive line is stout and keep an eye on rookie Jonathan Babineaux, who will compete for reserve minutes and is very quick for a tackle.

The Falcons will try not to slip up or get got, but there will be many teams gunning for their number one contender spot. They are no longer a sleeper team and they will not walk to any easy victories this time around.

Over/Under: 9.5

Like it or not, the Falcons will not win 10 games this season. Considering they were one of only four teams with a winning record in the NFC, their path to success stands to be much more arduous. Last year, they only had two games against winning teams, but this year's schedule has them pitted against four in the first five weeks. Outside of their division, they play: PHI, @SEA, @BUF, MIN, NE, NYJ, @MIA, GB, @DET, and @CHI.

Fantasy Sleepers

Roddy White and Michael Jenkins may look attractive — as fantasy options — but it's better to stay away until they prove something. Take a shot with T.J. Duckett, who totaled 509 rushing yards in 13 games last season. His yards per carry average has increased in each of his three seasons and although he shares carries with Warrick Dunn, his smaller co-worker has only played all 16 games in a season once (which was last year).

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