Ask around and you won't find many folks overly surprised that former Secretary of State Colin Powell did not win the 2005 Indianapolis 500.
Most don't know General Powell was even on the track, but he was the early leader in his Victory Red Corvette convertible. His was a 400-horsepower production version capable of hitting a top speed of 186 MPH. Not your typical IndyCar, just the newest in Chevrolet's long heritage of pace cars. Any question of a ceremonial front-runner winning the Indy would, of course, be ludicrous.
So why was anyone hanging in suspense over the 2005 Baltimore Orioles?
If you're an Orioles fan, the epiphany that your team is the Colin Powell of the American League East has already dawned. You held the lead for 73 games, playing your best baseball in eight years to do so. Despite a foray of injuries, you've throttled all 400 horsepower into service. Yet every time you glanced back, images of the Red Sox and Yankees grew larger in your rear-view mirror. They've got 700 horses and have been drafting you all season, waiting for the real push that is about to begin.
Interleague play is now over. There are no more stops to pull into for servicing by pit crews wearing National League uniforms. The Grand Marshall has dropped the green flag and the Birds are dutifully pulling off the track.
Of course, the baseball universe from Commissioner Selig to casual fans dispersed among small markets between the coasts, would love them to stay out there. They embrace parity, which has eluded baseball since its last strike in 1994. A two-team field does not beget compelling drama year after year. Their growing disinterest is evident in stadiums such as Camden Yards, where attendance fell 34% from 1997 to 2003 as the O's fell from American League East champion to fourth place.
Of the few teams that embody the potential, the Baltimore Orioles are the most desirous answer to baseball's prayer for parity. Baltimore, birthplace of the New York Yankees and Babe Ruth, host of the memorable 1969 and 1979 World Series, professional home to Cal Ripken, Jr. — professional sports' iron man and icon for the mythic notion of player as role model. What more decisive triumph than for the Baltimore Orioles to overthrow the oppressive rule of Boston and New York and reclaim former glory from the midst of this division of behemoths?
The 2005 start certainly broke from recent molds. While the Red Sox and Yankees slept off postseason hangovers, Baltimore seized first place on the strength of what had been its biggest unknown — starting pitching. Rodrigo Lopez (7-3, 4.47 ERA) and Sidney Ponson (7-5, 5.42 ERA) anchored a rotation that once posed too many questions for analysts to validate the O's as a contender. Recent call-ups Erik Bedard (5-1 in nine starts, 2.08 ERA) and Daniel Cabrera (5-7, 5.48 ERA) provided the value-added that analysts were afraid to rely upon, while well-traveled Bruce Chen (6-5, 3.54 ERA) has been the surprise they could not foresee.
On May 21, Bedard pitched seven shut-out innings against Philadelphia for his fifth consecutive win and the 27-15 Orioles held first place by three games. Then, a nagging pain diagnosed as a strained ligament in his left knee sidelined Bedard before his next start and figured to cost him another two. He has yet to return and the O's have gone 15-19 since.
Not that the disabled list has been a solitary confinement for Bedard. Kurt Ainsworth, the 26-year-old right-handed starter who missed most of 2004 with elbow surgery, and Jason Grimsley, a key bullpen acquisition in 2004 who underwent Tommy John surgery last fall, both expected to contribute in 2005. Neither has thrown a pitch and both remain on the 60-day DL.
What's more, the entire outfield has seemed more like a battlefield with starters Larry Bigbie, Luis Matos, and Sammy Sosa all serving time on the 15-day DL. B.J. Surhoff, a fill-in starter during these injuries, is now filling in on the DL, as is catcher Javy Lopez, who was added on May 25 and has yet to return.
Those who haven't given up the cause certainly have ammunition. Despite their fall, the Birds are still playing .550 baseball and are firmly in the wildcard hunt. Miguel Tajeda has settled any arguments over who is the best shortstop in baseball. The performances of Brian Roberts and Melvin Mora make theirs an all-star infield. The O's will be comparably healthy as the schedule makers reconvene intra-division play where they were 19-11 heading into this week. Best of all, is there a better acquisition before the trading deadline than Erik Bedard?
Try Curt Schilling and the real Randy Johnson.
The truth be told, Baltimore's biggest problem has always been exogenous. The Red Sox made the O's look like Sunday drivers in overtaking them over last week-end. Boston is now firing on all cylinders and should improve with the return of Schilling and the riddance of those stranded runners and bullpen demons that warmer weather has begun exorcising.
The Yankees haven't kept up to Boston, but with $208 million of assorted superstars in the dugout, there's always someone zigging when another zags. Their trick is to get two superstars zigging at the same time. That and another $20 million of midseason salaries thrown in for good measure will propel New York past the Birds, as well.
Starting this week, the Orioles have 22 head-to-head opportunities remaining with their two nemeses and they've won nine of the first 14 games. Like water, this success will seek its own level and wash away the remnants of suspense that once gripped us in the process.
Having 13 of those games played in Camden Yards shouldn't be a comfort to the Chesapeake Bay region. Over the last two and one-half seasons, a Boston or New York visit has meant a 25% spike in attendance, bolstered by commuting or carpet-bagging Red Sox and Yankee fans that increasingly fill every city. Unfortunately, the hometown O's are 11-27 in those games but the crowd goes home happy.
This anticipated gate will further augment the coffers already endowed by the O's settlement with MLB over the relocation of the Washington Nationals, not to mention some luxury tolls paid by the Red Sox and Yankees as they pass by the Birds. Just don't look for any to be reinvested any time soon. ESPN's Buster Olney has called Baltimore's front office the slowest moving in baseball. They appear content with beguiling fans into believing they've suffered the anguish of Job and no rushed decision will remedy this.
That's another problem with injuries — they create a false-positive diagnosis while making folklore of the injured and absolving management. In reality, this year's DL only accelerated the inevitable.
In the end, what legacy might these 2005 Birds leave baseball's loyal parity partisans? I'm afraid not much more than a broken wing and a prayer.
June 29, 2005
Alan Engel:
I have always enjoyed reading different views on the internet from around the country on the pennant races. This has been especially true this year inasmuch as I must confess to being a lifelong Orioles fan. I don’t usually reply to those various stories, but today I was so moved. For what it’s worth, here goes.
It has been an interesting first half of the season. I know many pre-season prognosticators have been waiting for months to declare the Orioles’ early season success over. Many in the Northeast want to believe that the Yankees and Red Sox are the giants of the AL East, if not of all baseball — the cream waiting to rise to the top. Perhaps. With the Red Sox, this may be true. But only “maybe.” As for the Yankees, I don’t think so.
In any one season, the final standings have far less to do with the size of the markets or the payrolls. Ultimately, it has to do with how the teams perform on the field. That is part of what makes baseball so entertaining. The first half of the season is usually a pretty good indicator of what to expect for the rest of the year, that is, it is usually statistically significant. Still, the season is long. It is not quite half over.
Prediction: The Orioles and Red Sox will battle for first all summer. The Yankees and Blue Jays will battle for “Most Mediocre” (the team closest to .500 at the end of the season). The unfortunate Devil Rays will continue to play close to Triple A quality.
It is interesting how the Orioles seem to have imitated the Red Sox’ and Yankees’ recent past success: Great hitting and good pitching. This year, the Orioles fit that description better than either of the other two.
The Orioles, Red Sox and Yankees all have excellent hitting. The Red Sox and Orioles are somewhat similar teams, but the Orioles have better pitching. In the long run, the pitching usually tells. The Orioles starters have been unknowns until now, and may not be performing any better than Boston’s or New York’s, but the O’s bullpen is superior. The Orioles could surprise everyone by going to the play-offs, and not necessarily as the wild card team.
Among the thirty Major League baseball teams, Baltimore, Boston, and New York are about even, ranking at the top in all of the hitting categories. Looking at team pitching, however, Baltimore is about in the middle of the pack, significantly better than both Boston and New York, and Boston is better than New York. With respect to ERA and WHIP, all three teams are similar, though of these three, the O’s are the best, the Yanks the worst. As for OPS and BAA, the O’s are in the top one-third, the Sox and Yanks are in the bottom one-third.
Interestingly, Toronto is the only team in the division with pitching as good or better than Baltimore’s. That is why the Yankees will struggle to stay out of fourth place and why the Blue Jays must not be overlooked.
The Yankees have excellent hitting but weak pitching, including overrated starting pitching. Like most teams, the Yankees really are playing close to their potential. They hit very well. Their hitters are doing about what can be expected. Unfortunately for Yankee fans, the pitching is about what should have been realistically expected. Many preseason comments were made about the Orioles’ supposedly poor pitching, without closely examining second half 2004 performance. Many of those comments really applied to the Yankees.
If the Blue Jays can score a few more runs, even they could finish ahead of the Yankees. By the end of the season, King George’s off-the-field performance may prove to be more interesting than his team’s on-the-field performance. Poor Joe Torre. He deserves better than to be blamed for how little, a lot of money, sometimes buys. On a relatively lesser scale, we’ve all been there before!
It should also be noted that none of the above even tries to take into account the fact that the Orioles have played so well despite missing for significant periods of time nearly every field position player in their starting lineup and their top-performing pitcher. It could be argued that a healthy team in the second half might well exceed the first half performance.
The law of very big numbers suggests that when results have occurred at a certain frequency for a significant length of time, all other things being equal, those results are likely to continue at about the same pace. Of course, baseball players being human anything is possible. Still, if AL East division performances continue as they have into the second half of the season, something like the following may well be expected:
AL East Final Standings?
Boston 94-68
Baltimore 91-71
New York 82-80
Toronto 81-81
Tampa Bay 57-105
It’s a long season. Given the Orioles’ statistical superiority to date, the top two standings could easily be reversed. Of course, as every investment advisor warns, past performance does not guarantee future results. One thing can be counted on, however. For baseball fans (and, I hope, especially for Oriole fans), it will be interesting to watch.