Friday, June 10, 2005
Chasing the Dream: Forecasting the NFC
As promised, part two of my hard-hitting documentary reporting on the upcoming NFL season. Okay, it is neither hard-hitting nor is it a documentary, but it is a part two and it is a well-known fact that everyone loves sequels. So without further ado, here are my 2005 NFL pre-preseason projections, NFC-style.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 11-5 Dallas Cowboys 10-6 Washington Redskins 7-9 New York Giants 6-10
And the Winner is...
Why mess with history? The Eagles should have no problem wrapping up a sixth-straight division title, though Dallas will certainly create some headaches along the way for Andy Reid and his charges. I want to add that this is not contingent on T.O. playing ... Owens is a difference-maker and worth all the trouble he causes (at least in my estimation), but you have to figure that his presence will help them in some games and hurt them in others, creating a status quo effect for their final record.
I will also add that this mantra only applies to the regular season and if the Eagles don't have the Mouthy One for the playoffs, they are in some deep doo-doo. The Cowboys will be too inconsistent on offense to pose a real threat to the Eagles, but should still give some teams fits. The 'Skins need to get their house in order, or else they may find themselves further down in the standings than I see them. The Giants are a work in progress and on the upswing, but seem to lack the kind of consistent defense you would have to see to consider them a real threat to the others in this division.
What Were They Thinking?
The Redskins have not taken a hard enough line with their players lately, and it is beginning to cost them in the worst way. Arrington bullies the franchise around like they're his personal prison bitch (please forgive the frank metaphor, it was the best I could do) and it is obvious they are willing to let Sean Taylor come and go as he sees fit. This is all a reflection of their much-maligned owner, Daniel Snyder, who implies through his actions that money talks and BS walks, but then lets the BS stomp his franchise into the ground.
To his credit, he's trying harder these days by bringing in legendary character coach Joe Gibbs, but he neglected to realize that Gibbs hasn't coached the "new era" of money-hungry malcontents Snyder helped create in today's game. Until a few feelings are hurt in Redskins Park, it doesn't seem likely that the culture of privilege and disrespect will cease to prevail anytime soon.
Surprise, Surprise
Many experts (and just about every misguided Cowboy fan) have hitched their wagons to the Dallas Express this off-season, first stop, Playoffville. Well, I just don't see it. The 'Boys are knocking on the door, but, much to the chagrin of all those blue star-toting yahoos I see daily in Houston, Drew Bledsoe is not the answer to their woes.
Without getting into too much detail, the Cowboys, on paper, are little more than a better coached and more disciplined version of the Redskins. Hard-hitting safety, above-average running game, slow-footed and sack-prone quarterback, solid offensive line, suspect pass rush — the similarities are startling. Yes, Bill Parcells will coach them to a few very impressive victories this season. Just as likely, Drew Bledsoe will have himself three or four huge performances. They should make the playoffs, but Rome was not built in a day, and they had some fellas a heck of a lot smarter than Bill Parcells working on that place, so don't expect too much come January from the silver and blue.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 Detroit Lions 9-7 Green Bay Packers 6-10 Chicago Bears 6-10
And the Winner is...
Minnesota should have no problem taking this division, but they will. On paper, the Vikings look like easy money — they took some very substantial steps to remake their defense into a juggernaut, they seemingly replaced their one major loss on offense (Randy Moss), they have a deep corps of talented runners (Whizzinator not included), and they are coming off a promising 2004 postseason run. All that may be true, but injuries are a concern, Daunte Culpepper may regress without Moss as a security blanket (let's not forget Daunte's alarming propensity for turning the pigskin over) and a defense that reshaped will need time to mesh.
The Lions are a promising offensive team with a solid defensive backfield and some athletic linebackers, but will be undone by their lack of a consistent pass rush. Brett Favre is still very good, but his supporting cast is not. The Bears are hard to get a read on, and may wind up outperforming my predictions, but I can't give them the benefit of the doubt quite yet.
What Were They Thinking?
Mike Williams is a fine receiver. Mike Williams will fit in perfectly with Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Marcus Pollard. Mike Williams give the Detroit Lions one of the most potent passing offenses any of us have seen (outside of the RCA Dome, anyway). But you have to question the Lions' logic of selecting him with the 10th overall pick in the '05 draft. Not when you need a big tackle and there are some on the board (most notably, Travis Johnson). Not when you are desperate for pass rushers and there are still several on the table (Shawn Merriman, DeMarcus Ware, and, to a lesser extent, Erasmus James). While I don't doubt Williams will develop into an excellent pro receiver, it just isn't a wise pick when you are a team on the verge of punching through a decade-long barrier of futility.
Surprise, Surprise
Aside from the aforementioned justification for Minnesota not running away with this division, some Brett Favre fans may be wondering just what I was thinking in putting such little faith in the "Lambeau Leap." Green Bay still lacks any kind of consistency from their defensive backfield, and when you are looking at this division, that is not a good thing. Yes, Favre will amaze us for yet another season, but he is not 28 anymore and will not be able to outscore every team they play.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 11-5 Carolina Panthers 10-6 New Orleans Saints 6-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-11
And the Winner is...
Atlanta, and it won't be as close as the records indicate. Carolina has a relatively light schedule, which will give keep them close and may allow for a backdoor playoff entry, but don't have enough firepower to hang with the Falcons, especially with Vick finding his comfort level in the west coast offense. This will be the last year of Jim Haslett's tenure in New Orleans, as Aaron Brooks will finally spell the end of his embattled coach. The Bucs are in rebuild mode, but they'll pick up a few cheap wins along the way.
What Were They Thinking?
Retaining Jim Haslett was not only a humongous surprise to many NFL analysts, it was a monumental mistake. Ol' 'roid-head has proven to be more abrasive than an S.O.S. pad in his six years in southern Louisiana, and I've met nutria with better personalities (if you aren't sure what a nutria is, think of the offspring of a big dirty possum mating with a big, dirty rat — they call them "chicken" in Cajun Country and some kids even take them as pets).
I'll grant him the leniency of having to deal with a quarterback who has the distinction of throwing the best (and perhaps only) spiral toward the wrong end zone in the league's storied history, but it has become painfully clear that Haslett's motivational speaking skills were picked up while waiting for an Ultimate Cheeseburger in a Jack-in-the-Box drive thru. If not for Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn, the Saints would be a four-win team — but, since they do have that dynamic duo, they'll be a six-win team without a coach once December rolls around.
Surprise, Surprise
If the Carolina Panthers were a stock, I'd be selling. Yes, they had a great late season run last year backing up their Super Bowl appearance one year earlier. True, they had more than their share of injuries and still managed to tread water. This makes them a good team, not a great one. They say that once is an accident, twice is a trend, and by this logic, you have to realize that DeShaun Foster is injury-prone and Stephen Davis is about to become a huge investor in wheelchairs.
You can't win it all without a stable running game, and no matter what stats you through at me about the Nobody McWho's that carried the ground game down the stretch last season, that was little more than an anomaly and I am confident the future will bear this out as truth. Until Davis or Foster prove to me that they can remain healthy and effective, the Panthers will be chasing rather than chased in the hunt for championship glory.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals 9-7 Seattle Seahawks 7-9 St. Louis Rams 5-11 San Francisco 49ers 4-12
And the Winner is...
Arizona, I'd like to introduce you to the playoffs ... playoffs, this is Arizona. As hard to believe as it is, the Cardinals should finally get back to the postseason in 2005. The NFC West is to the NFL as PBS is to cable; undeniably a part of it, but no one really wants to watch. As such, the Cardinals are the hot-riser while the others are either stuck in neutral or barreling recklessly toward the edge of a cliff in reverse.
The Seahawks have officially missed their window as they look to rework a disappointing defensive unit. The Rams are a tired bunch, who may well put on a show or two but will ultimately fall victim to terrible coaching decisions and a confused, haphazard defensive scheme. I won't say much more about the 49ers, other than to say that they will be on the way up in a year or two with Mike Nolan now running the show, but as for now, not so much.
What Were They Thinking?
I could fill a filing cabinet with stories about St. Louis Rams coach Mike Martz here. Chris Chandler, coach's challenges, missed timeout calls, fourth-down conversion attempts — the decision's have mostly been quite mind-numbing. However, I'd be remiss if I didn't use this space to question the benching of future Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk. I fully understand that Marshall is a realist and knows that his days are numbered. I am equally aware of the talent young Steven Jackson possesses.
Faulk, as a team player, will likely take the party line and reiterate whenever a microphone is in his face that he just wants to do what is best for the team, but if you know anything about Faulk, you quickly will realize that this is a huge mistake for the chemistry of that team. Almost certainly, Faulk will be motivated to give his all and should perform to the top of his ability. This is good. But what isn't good is the dissension a move like this creates. An "old guard" and "new guard" will develop within the locker room, some of whom question Faulk's role, others who maintain that a talent such as Jackson should be used as often as possible.
All the while, Martz will be calling far too many passing plays. The sad thing is this all could have been avoided if Martz just would have not opened his rather substantial pie hole in early May and would have made a similar announcement after training camps began. As innocuous as that premature announcement may have seemed, you can quote me come November — this is the beginning of the end in St. Louis. I'm talking unmitigated disaster here.
Surprise, Surprise
Seattle is a franchise in transition. As solid a job as they did in the offseason in terms of player retention, at least one onlooker (yours truly) sees a team that is running in place. QB Matt Hasselbeck may be putting up some very nice statistics, but he isn't winning games for the Seahawks. Shaun Alexander is miserable in the northwest, doesn't respect his coach, and is a three-game losing streak away from talking his way into pariah status in Seattle. The receiving corps seemingly gets thinner and thinner each year. While many still maintain that this team is ready to take the next step in their progression into the game's elite, I just don't see it that way.
Playoff Picture
Division winners: Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, Arizona
Wildcard entrants: Carolina, Dallas
Round 1: Minnesota over Carolina, Dallas over Arizona
Round 2: Atlanta over Dallas, Philadelphia over Minnesota
NFC Championship Game: Atlanta over Philadelphia
Super Bowl: Atlanta over Cincinnati
It's as easy as that. Atlanta takes the title away from Philadelphia and then handles Cincinnati in Super Bowl XL to bring Michael Vick his first NFL title. Questions and comments are welcomed, except from you bitter Cowboy fans, because y'all just don't make any sense. As for the rest of you, fire away!
I'm not one to make a bold prediction and then bury it under some stack of articles in hopes of it just fading into cyberspace. What's written here is binding as far as accountability goes. As a journalist, I have a certain standard to live up to and intend to stand firmly behind my printed words.
Unless, of course, I'm wrong. But that's why pencils have erasers.
Don't miss part one: Chasing the Dream: Forecasting the AFC