Chasing the Dream: Forecasting the AFC

Cincinnati? what?!? Baltimore is going to take the AFC North. you didnt mention Todd Heap will be back and healthly. plus the addition of Derrick Mason- one of the best WR’s in the NFL. these guys are going to help Boller have a breakthrough season on a Drew Bress type of scale. the Ravens may have lost some LB’s but what about adding Samuri Rolle to what was already the best secondary? Chester Taylor replaced Jamal Lewis nicely when he was out w/ injuries and is going to keep him from being overworked as you mentioned. sorry, but you totally overlooked all the additions to the Ravens though free agency and coming off injury. these guys are a legit Super Bowl caliber team.

Good comments, Eric, but I just don’t buy them. Boller is no Drew Brees….accuracy is why Brees was able to breakout like he did. Boller just isn’t that accurate. Mason is not a good complement to Boller, and I think this year’s results will bear that out. I do say that the Ravens could be a 12-win team…it’s not like I think they’ll be awful…but adding Rolle, while a good move, is more of a parallel addition, as they lost a starting CB and S in free agency. And Taylor can be as “nice” a replacement as he wants, he is no Jamal Lewis and with a backfield of Boller and Taylor, this team is not a threat offensively, so I wouldn’t hang your hat on that idea.

But great dialog! You make your points well, and we’ll just have to wait and see! Thanks for reading…

Hi ya Matt,

I enjoyed the predictions, however I too will have to disagree on the Ravens. They are just too loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Boller only has to be average for those guys to make the post season (see Trent Dilfer). Terrel Suggs pro bowl 04), is an upgrade over the beat up Boulware. Adalas Thomas isn’t shabby either. They may not make the Super Bowl, but I see them competing for the AFC North crown. Keep up the fun articles!

ihave been telling that the bengals willlget the big game

Sorry Matt but I disagree with a lot of your predictions. First off patting yourself on the back for predicting that Atlanta would have a good season this year is ludicrous! Gee, they get back Michael Vick and switch to a defensive scheme that fits their players… I wonder how they will fair? Don’t forget that the Falcons were a trendy pick the year before when Vick got hurt in the preseason. And calling the Eagles to go to the Super Bowl is also no real feat, they had gone to the previous three NFC Championship games and aside from the trendy Seahawks pick in the early weeks of the season many “experts” felt that the Eagles were thee pick to make for the NFC.
Your AFC East predictions are pretty interesting. Obviously the Patriots are the favorites being that they’ve won three of the last four Super Bowls. As you said I think the loss of their two coordinators will obviously hurt their team, however the systems are already set in place; so until they start losing major players they should still be a very strong team. The Jets still have the defensive backfield questions as you have already pointed out but we must also remember that they are installing a new offense under Mike Heimerdinger (I think I misspelled his last name). I think it will take Pennington some time to adjust to the new offense, we also must note that Curtis Martin has yet another year of wear and tear on his body and though he seems like he will be around forever he won’t. The pickup of Coles is excellent though, Pennington always seemed to have great chemistry with him. Your 9-7 record for the Dolphins is interesting to say the least. They bring in a very successful college head coach, replace their GM, draft a RB who split carries his entire career, let go of Patrick Surtain, have their defense get one year older and slower, and perhaps may have their power-back who now weighs 195-pounds return and you increase their record by 5 wins?!?! A.J. Feeley is not the answer at QB and proved to be incompetent when he did manage playing time. Ronnie Brown is not going to survive being the only threat on their offense in a division where defenses ranked 2nd, 7th, and 9th overall. You ask me to trust you, but you have to do a lot more convincing before I’ll do that. Finally we have the Bills. Half-way through the season they looked like they were competing for the first pick in the draft and ended the season barely missing the playoffs. Perhaps their 9-7 record will not be repeated, it is Losman’s first year as a starter. But it seems like you call the release of Bledsoe into question. Bledsoe as a starter was 23-25. This past season he completed 56.9 % of his passes for 2932 yards with 20 TD’s and 16 Int’s. Pretty rookie numbers don’t you think. If Losman’s numbers are similar then Buffalo should be in pretty good shape. The loss of Pat Williams should not be underestimated, he was truly dominating at times. But back-ups Ron Edwards and Tim Anderson should not be underestimated either, neither should Sam Adams who was voted to the Pro-Bowl AGAIN last season. Buffalo’s defense will still be in the top 5 this season. Left Tackle and QB are the two questions for this team. Losman’s adjustment will be helped by Eric Moulds and Lee Evans, who in my opinion form one of the top recieving duo’s in the NFL.

That’s enough for now… I’ll post more later.

PS: AFC East Standings at the end of the season…
NE-11-5
NYJ-9-7
Buff-8-8
Mia-5-11

Well…that certainly is a mouth full!

First off, I appreciate your comments…though I see you clearly missed my “tongue-in-cheek” tone regarding my picking “expertise”. Obviously, nobody can divine the future, especially when the season is still three months away.

On to my rebuttle….like your points about the Jets and the Pats…but you are way off on the Fish. Look, for all the A.J. Feeley doubters out there, get off the ESPN propoganda wagon and take a look at how the guy actually performed. Yes, he started very rough. But by the last five games of the season, he was better than advertised. Yes, he through 5 picks against Buffalo, but 3 of those were CLEARLY not because of his skill but due to mistakes by receivers or dropped balls. No, he is not Joe Montana or John Elway, but give the kid a chance! Not only that, but Frerotte may well be Miami’s QB this season and they are going to be running Minnesota’s high octane offense, so the days of run right, run left, incomplete, punt should finally be over. Lastly in regards to the passing game, they have a quality set of receivers in Chambers, Booker, Boston, McMichael and Thompson that WILL make their QB better, regardless of whom it winds up being.

The defense is definitely a year older. But they signed Keith Traylor, Kevin Carter, Tebucky Jones, Mario Edwards and Vonnie Holiday, drafted promising youngsters Matt Roth and Channing Crowder. Last season, they didn’t have Seau, Bowens, Chester or Madison and Surtain for much of the year and STILL ended up as a top 8 defense. They lose Surtain, sure, but still have Reggie Howard, Madison, Will Poole (though he’ll miss the year) and Edwards, so it isn’t like the playing with nothing in the defensive backfield. This is just a ridiculous argument…their defense is still going to be top 10 easily. Finally, about Ronnie Brown, it is obvious you didn’t watch too many Auburn games the past two years. Yes, he split time. But the guy is a horse. He won’t carry the ball 30 times in the NFL, and shouldn’t, but 15-25 is reasonable and will make him effective, he brings lots to the passing game, can block and has breakaway speed. As for the 195-lb Williams (he will, by the way, gain much of that back in the 3 months after he starts training), he should be able to handle 5-10 well-placed carries a game and, if nothing else, will give them a secondary runner who isn’t named Travis Minor. Miami, if you look at their roster, is better at every single position but cornerback this year, and they had room to give up at that position (#2 pass defense in football last year).

Look, your points are valid, to an extent. But I want to point out the inconsistencies with your arguments. You talk of Sam Adams, who is older now and reason him as a prime factor to the Bills success. I don’t debate this, but a paragraphy earlier you used “another year older” as a reason the Fish won’t succeed defensively. Likewise, you talk of the Bills receivers “easing Losman’s transition”, but neglect to point out that Miami’s receivers, now healthy, will be able to provide the same support to an inexperienced Feeley. Just for future reference, these contradictions discredit your otherwise very valid points…it is something you see often on team fan post sites and really doesn’t do much in terms of making your case.

All that said, I am glad to see my opinions generating some discussion! I appreciate the comments…keep them coming!

Alright, I took a look at Feeley’s stats over las season game by game. Especially focusing on the last five games. His last five games (as he did not play in week 17) were against SF, Buff, Den, NE, and Clev. Against SF he was mediocre completing 51% of his passes for 2 Td’s and 1 Int, those numbers pale when one realizes that they were playing San Fransico. Buffalo seemed to give him problems as you pointed out. I did not see the game so I do not know whose fault the Int’s were, but he threw an Int to 360 pound DT Pat Williams which was returned 20 yards for a TD, afterwhich Williams pleaded with the training staff for oxygen. Throwing Int’s to linemen is always rough. Feeley did throw 3 TD’s in that game, but he took 51 pass attempts that game! They Dolphins were in catch-up mode for the entire game after Terrence McGee returned the opening kick-off for a TD. Of those 51 attempts he completed 25, good for 49% of his passes. Against Denver he completed 48% of his passes with 1 TD and 1 Int. Mediocre at best. New England in my opinion was his best game all season. He wasn’t spectacular, but he made good decisions and led his team to their one point edge of NE. His final game against Cleveland was uninspiring. He completed 25/43 for 176 yards for one TD, lost a fumble, and got sacked for an 11 yard loss by Gerard Warren (lol).
Reading these stats cause me to think that the negative opinion of Feeley that you refer to as “bandwagon” is far better described as “reality.” Perhaps Feeley will improve, but not by 5 games in arguably the toughest division in football. Maybe they should just start Gus Frerotte who might be adequate until he head-buts another wall.
Their offense should be far more creative with Linehan calling the plays. However it usually takes a year for players to feel comfortable in an offense. Especially recievers, by the way I am intrigued by your confidence in Miami’s recievers ’ ability to raise QB play. They obviously did it this past season when they helped their QB’s achieve ratings of 61.7, 67.1, and 41.0 (Marty Booker is easily their highest rated with 118.8 average). The reason I say that Buffalo’s WR’s will help Losman’s development and ignore the Miami WR’s aid to their QB is because Miami’s WR’s haven’t been able to do it. Chris Chambers is a very talented athlete but but he has never had a 1,000 yard season. Marty Booker is a wiley old veteran, but he’s a possession guy. David Boston hasn’t caught a pass since 2003. You are correct that Randy McMichael is a great TE though.
My point in saying that the Miami defense is a year older is a little blurred. The defense Dave Wannstead ran was based on team speed, thus he had fast, if undersized players (i.e. Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor). When a team’s defense is speed based then age is detrimental. A point that I forgot is that Saban is going to be switching that up. I feel that it will probably take Saban a season or so to get the players that he wants to fit in his scheme. My point was not saying that Miami’s defense would be awful, but this year it may be the worst in the division which means that they’d probably still be ranked in the top 10 in the league. But I do not think that Miami will be as strong defensively as their were last year or the year before.
It’s true that I was never able to watch Ronnie Brown in college. He could very well be an amazing back, but though his production in college was impressive he still split carries. RB’s in the first round aren’t sure-bets. Look at Curtis Enis, Thomas Jones, and Ron Dayne as some busts. I think Brown will be a good back, but if I were a Miami fan I would hold my breath for awhile. Ricky Williams makes too much money and is too much of a team distraction to recieve 5-10 carries a game. He wouldn’t be worth it, they should sign me for 5-10 carries a game!
I think you took my endorsement of Sam Adams too highly. I realize that he’s a year older, but he doesn’t have to be fast (unlike Miami’s defense), just take up a lot of space to close off running lanes. Honestly I thought he’d be washed up a few seasons ago, but his production has been strong and it doesn’t look like that’s going to stop. His prescence will help Buffalo’s run defense as Edwards and Anderson probably cycle in and out. That was my point on emphasizing the prescence of Sam Adams which goes against your idea that Buffalo will struggle against power games. As I stated above saying that Buffalo will aid Losman’s development while not endorsing Miami’s WR’s is not a contradiction. Lee Evans had a great rookie year, Eric Moulds is an All-Pro, though he is slowing but is still a very good reciever who consistently beats double-teams, Josh Reed has been disappointing but he is solid in the slot. Chambers is talented but hasn’t produced as much. Booker is a solid possession guy but not much more. Boston is a workout freak who is injury prone. I don’t think the three compare to eachother.

Look, we could have this back-and-forth forever…you’re points are all valid and backed up with your inferences from and perception of statistics and situational information. But I must retort to a few of the items to which I take issue.

I never said A.J. wasn’t mediocre. I just said he isn’t as awful as he is portrayed. That team was a wreck last season….no running backs, no offensive linemen, injured receivers…a total wreck. For him to put up the numbers he did, which weren’t all-star worthy but weren’t the bottom of the barrel, either, speaks to the fact that he has POTENTIAL. As for the receivers, Boston didn’t just “last catch a pass in 2003”, he caught over 70 of them for a team that didn’t pass that often. If you can look at Chris Chambers and see anything other than a fantastically dynamic receiver, you just flat don’t want to, because the guy is dynamite, 1000 yard seasons or not. Booker is a good possession guy, and a GREAT complement to Chambers. Keep in mind that teams played Miami with six and seven guys in coverage..not exactly condusive to big numbers, if you know what I mean. With at least the threat of running the ball, Feeley will be that much better and his receivers aren’t going to hurt that development. That was my point. Ronnie Brown is as sure a thing as there has been, you can take that to the bank. I’m not saying he’s Gayle Sayers, I’m saying he is going to be solid immediately. He can block and catch, which already puts him head and shoulders above any other back they had last season. John Gruden called him the best RECEIVER in the draft, even better than the actual wide receivers. He ran a 4.4-40, can run through tackles and isn’t injury prone. Splitting carries on Auburn isn’t exactly a bad thing. What would YOU do if you had he and Williams both. This is a glass half empty/half full type of argument…did Brown get half of the carries because he wasn’t able to sustain the constant punishment? More likely, he was so impressive that he TOOK half of the carries from a RB in Cadillac Williams that many considered the best in college football for the past two seasons. To me, that’s not a bad thing. The Dolphins still have speed on defense, to wrap this up…Taylor is one of the 3 best at his position in football. Holliday and Carter have been two of the more consistent and versatile D-linemen in the league over the past few years. The secondary and linebackers can still run and tackle. No way they finish as the worst D in the division (J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets). Oh, and what you forget about Ricky is he is already signed. His contract is designed to give him under $1 million this season, if you leave out the bonus money he may or may not earn. He is certainly not too expensive to play. There has been talk that he’ll demand more money, but I would dare say he isn’t in a position of leverage and he’ll take what he can get. As for being a distraction, that is overrated. These are grown men. I’m sure the coaching staff will have broached the subject with the players, thus eliminating any distraction angle.

As for your comments regarding Buffalo…I am fully aware of their strategy on defense, and my point was Williams made Adams what he is. Without him, you can double team big Sam and STILL get your center or guard out in front to handle the linebacker. As good as Edwards and Anderson may be, they don’t require more than a one-on-one OG matchup to neutralize. That’s why I say they’ll have problems with the power running games. You are a bit dellusional regarding the receivers…Booker and Moulds are mirror images statistically and physically over the past 4 years (a fair sampling considering the age and experience of both)…Moulds 319 catches, 4019 yds, 21 TDs, 49 20+ gains, 13 40+ gains/Booker 299, 3613, 19, 50 and 11. Booker is younger. That matchup is a wash. I think we can both agree Reed in the slot vs. Boston in the slot is not exactly a landslide in either direction…each have their value, both have loads of potential, both have loads of downside. That leaves Lee Evans vs. Chris Chambers and you can’t tell me with a straight face that Evans is better than Chambers, regardless of what argument you use.

Again, this is great discussion fodder….but you cannot so quickly dismiss my points if you really take the time to review them.

I am a big Dolphin fan that is very optimistic about the team. Right now I don’t think that A.J Feely is the answer to the team, I don’t think he has gotten a fair shot to prove that he is the answer. All last season the guy got planted because of lack of protection. It was the offensive line’s first year playing as a coheisive unit which makes me think that they will be alot better this year, especially with Hudson Houck coaching the oline. We have a solid running back in Ronnie Brown. I think he will be a star in the leauge very soon. He draws a strong comparison to Ladainian Tomlinson and will be a franchise back. I still have doubt about Ricky Williams who I think should just leave the team alone. He ditched the team when they needed him the most which is just selfish. Chambers hasn’t had a QB that could really give him the ball which makes me think that he has got the potential to be great. He also has Booker, Boston, and Thompson to take some of the pressure of him.

Whatsup, I’m an optomistic Dolphin fan who is very glad to see a sportswriter finally giving the team some well deserved credit. I gotta say 9-7 is a pretty ballsy prediction, but the team definetly has the potential to go somewhere in the near future.
Out of all the off season additions the Dolphins had, my favorite addition is Nick Saban. Nick Saban is a genius head coach in the Bill Bellicheck mold who is definetly the best coach Miami has had since Shula.(If you remember, Jimmy Johnson was quite bad in Miami) Saban runs a tight ship, he’s a no nonsense kinda guy that isn’t out to get all the best players, just the right players for his system that can win games for his team. On defense he likes versatile, smart players with size and strength that can tackle well. Miami’s D is loaded with versatile lineman that can play the DE/OLB, and DT/DE. Kevin Carter, Jason Taylor, Vonnie Holliday, Matt Roth and David Bowens are all examples of this. In the secondary we have smart veterans that can run, cover well, and have a nose for the ball. It’s very unfortunate about Will Poole because he’s going to be a very good corner in this league.
On offense, Saban isn’t too agressive but he isn’t the type of guy to be overly conservative to protect his defense either. With him and Scott Linehan at the helm I have all the confidence in the world that the offensive play calling will be galaxies better than the absolute garbage play calling of recent years. Miami has the pieces of the puzzle in place on offense for Linehan to succeed nicely. Linehan likes to run 3 wideout sets with a TE and one RB. The dolphins have 3 starting quality, potentially pro bowl quality recievers in Chambers Boston and Booker, a very good TE in Mcmicheal, and a very promising versatile young back in Ronnie Brown. The o-line of the dolphins has also been much improved with the signing of Stockar Mcdougle, the emergence of Rex Hadnot, Damion Mcintosh and Jeno James being Healthy, and the signing of Hudson Houck which was HUGE. Hopefully Vernon Carey gets in there as a starter as well.
As far as the play of Feeley last year goes, find me a succesful qb in this league who has NO running game to support him, and NO pass protection to keep him confident in the pocket and give him time to throw. If you can find me a succesful qb who had to face that kind of adversity, than I will admit Feeley is no good. Fortunately for me, there were no succesful QBs who had it as bad as Feeley did, and whenever Feeley did get time to throw, whenver the fins could muster up half a running game I saw a QB in Feeley that was confident, tough, accurate, and had one hell of a throwing arm. He’s gotta learn the playbook but that’ll come in time.
All that said, I will admit that a 1 year turnaround to 9-7 is less that likely but I don’t think that it’s out of the question at all. If this team stays healthy, if the offensive line learns from Hudson Houck and plays better, and if Ronnie Brown is the real deal, this will be a team to be reckoned with for years to come.

I just want to say I agree with you completely, Cincinnati all the way but New England is going to fall apart just like any other dynasty. I don’t see them making it this year.

Matt I don’t know why you are so high on Miami’s recievers. Chris Chambers against division opponents last season averaged 4 rec. for 32.4 yards and .4 Td’s (Stats taken from http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?statsId=5499). Not exciting numbers. I don’t get to watch Chambers play except against AFC East teams. That’s why I’m not impressed, he can’t seem to break the double team against the division. Blame the offense, blame the quarterback, or lack of another option. But the bottom line is that against division opponents he does not produce as much. If he’s single covered then he’s a dynamic exciting reciever, double-team him and challenge him and you’ll most likely make him ineffective.
Your stats for Booker and Moulds are a little too convienient for me. Remember that in 2002 Moulds hurt his hamstring and though he played 13 games he was severely limited. I think a better comparison would be to take Booker and Mould’s best 4 years. Booker’s best average for four years is 74 rec, 903 yards, and 4.75 Td’s. Mould’s best average for four years are 87 rec, 1257 yards, and 7.25 Td’s. Also remember that Moulds has gone to 3 Pro Bowls to Booker’s one.
I can also make the argument that Moulds has never really had a great QB to throw to him. Flutie was serviceable as was Bledsoe from time to time, but once defenses figured out how to keep Flutie in the pocket and realized that Bledsoe was incapable of leaving the pocket the two were limited at best.
I still don’t know enough about Ronnie Brown to come to a conclusion… I just try to remind people that he’s not in the Pro-Bowl yet.
I find it interesting that you are confident in the Jets being less effective on defense than the Dolphins considering the Jets had a higher ranked defense last season.

I should clarify that I don’t think that the Dolphins will be terrible, they will make big steps forward. But to say they will win 5 more games in the toughest division in football isn’t based in reality. They haven’t done enough to merit that.

PS: Lee Evans in the next few years will be easily a better reciever than Chambers, interesting because they went to the same High School and College. Oh the drama! (-=

I have been a huge Bengals fan and have had to endure the last 15 years of “Bungledom”. The fact that nobody is laughing about the Bengals going to the Super Bowl is still a little amazing to me.

It’s good to be a Bengals fan again. The AFC North is the toughest division in football.

Mike, there is no way Evans will be as good as chambers. Chambers was covered so well by the east last year b/c they all knew the fins had no running game and were often running dime and nickel sets. Plus with Boston, Booker, and mcmike on the field i dont see him being doubled that much. You sound like a bills fan to me… lets look at your secondary… well let clements cover chambers. And McGee on Booker.Boston would likely be covered by Greer or Thomas(idk who Nickel is) and they would both easily be burnt against boston. Then your safeties are old and not very productive. Troy once was a fin, that was back when he was still good, now he’s lost a step..no, a few steps. And Milloy, how many picks has he had over the last 3 years??? TWO!! So as you can see the secondary of the Bills has no chance against the Fins receiving corps. So to say that chambers who i feel will be covered by clements will not be productive against the bills or any team in the east for that matter is ridiculous. And Beside if you try to double him (youd have to go to dime or quarters) you would get torn apart by Ronnie cause your interior linemen arent as good as last year.

That aside, matt id like to thank you for this great article. Im not sure about the bengals in the superbowl but i definitly agree with you on the fact that they will be a much improved team. There running game is going to be insane this year, Rudy is great and Perry will be ready to help lighten the load for him this year. Also Palmer got a lot better throught out the year last year and i ecpect to see him continue to improve this
year.
Nice article!!

Brian I hate to inform you that David Boston has lost a step since he started body building instead of being a reciever. No 240 pound reciever is going to burn anyone, he might win the match-up due to size advantage.
Lee Evans is a little smaller than Chambers but is faster (he was timed in the low 4.3’s during the combine). The two’s rookie stats are also similar. Chambers caught 48 balls for 883 yards and 7 TD’s. Evans caught 48 for 843 yards and 9 TD’s. Evans might have a bit of a sophomore slump this year (it happens to a lot of recievers) but he is going to be very dangerous in the years to come.
I don’t see how anything you said negates the fact that Chambers hasn’t been productive in the past against double-teams, especially within in the division. Clements has shut down Chad Johnson (Johnson was held to 2 rec for 10 yards), Anquan Boldin (4 rec for 50 yards), Darrell Jackson (4 for 45), and Jerry Porter (3 for 45), and Nate often single-covers these recievers. Nate Clements is one of the most underrated CB’s in the league, he shut down Chad Johnson while Champ Bailey got burned by him.
Either way, I expect Chambers to have a pretty decent year (50rec 800-900 yards and 8 or 9 TD’s) but all this talk about him being in the upper-echelon of recievers is a little premature. I’m open minded, let’s see if he can impress this year.
Lawyer Milloy in our defensive scheme is more like an additional linebacker than a coverage safety. So his two int’s are more like a bonus. What is crucial is his 62 tackles and 4 sacks. Troy Vincent has lost a step, hence his move to Free Safety. His stats this year weren’t up to par because he was moving to a new position and he only played in seven games.
I’m also not really sure why you feel that in order to double Chambers you have to be in a Nickel or Dime, unless Miami is going to be in contstant 3 reciever sets.
Again I would stress that the reason I don’t think Chambers will be productive against double-teams is that he really hasn’t been in the past. If the Dolphins would have gotten a better QB then maybe. But with Feeley throwing to him he’s not going to be better than pretty-good.
Either way I think my prediction of the AFC East (Being NE-11-5 NYJ-9-7 Buff-8-8 Mia-5-11) is far more realilistic. At most Miami will be a 7-9 team. I just don’t think they’ll make strong enough strides with a new coaching staff with different offensive and defensive philosophies, an at best questionable QB, and a tough schedule, to go 9-7 this year. Maybe next year.
We’ll see how your fins fair against the “helpless” Bills secondary next season… (-;

i like the south pick. im not so sure that cin will be that good to beat my jags in the playoffs but who knows. I allso dont the fins will go 9 and 7 i think mabey 6 and 10.
GO JAGS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have to disagree with you regarding the impact of losing Boulware and Hartwell on the Ravens. Hartwell is a very good middle linebacker. He is a two down/run stuffing linebacker, who is not at all versatile. He was never on the field in passing situations, because he can’t rush the passer or cover anybody. With Ravens going to 4-3 or 46, there was no room for Hartwell in the starting line up.
Boulware could be a bigger loss. However, he was going to be a backup this season and rush end in passing situation, opposite of Suggs, which would’ve been a great luxury. Boulware missed an entire season last year and Adalius Thomas stepped in to the starting lineup generating 72 tackles and 8 sacks. Ravens also drafted Dan Cody from Oklahoma in the second round, who is slated to backup Thomas and rush the passer in the nickel package. Don’t forget that Cody was at one point ranked as a top ten prospect in the draft, far ahead of Cincinnati’s Pollack. He was unspectacular at the combine, which is what allowed Terrell Suggs to slide to the Ravens few years back, and teams found out that he was struggling from depression during his sophomore season at OU. These factors overshadowed his production and future potential during the draft, but should not limit his impact on the field. Tommy Polley might be a question mark at weak side LB, but other then that the unit is solid, with limited depth.
You are absolutely correct regarding lack of dominating run stopping defensive tackle, as this remains a weakness for this defense. There are prospects there between Kemoato, Edwards and Franklin, but it’s a thin line in both size and depth.
You also left out multiple additions on offense, along with vast improvement in the coaching staff.

Reference your “forecasting.” I can not believe you idiots get paid for this crap. Cincinnati? Give me frigin break!

Bill,

Who says anyone gets paid? This is only one fan’s article, and at least he had the guts to post his picks and accept criticism like yours. Thanks for the note. :)

Matt, Bengal fans have been much tortured over the last decade before Marvin Lewis was Hired as our savior of fotballs abyiss. I must say you must be paying attention. It is hard for the other teams fans to relize what they will be in for this year. I think for the most part it will be something like. ” I can`t believe this is happening” The rat bird fans know what I am talking about. We hung 24 second half points on there vounted defense. But thanks for the props. It should be a fun year. Who-Dey

See Marc James, that is the typical perspective from most of the “unknowledgeable armchair quarterbacks” who dwell on past assumptions and projeect them into future circumstances. Yes, the Bengals have been mired in perpetual embarassment for the greater half of my existence. But, for you to say, “give me a friggin break,” only proves your ignorance. What is so “friggin” ridiculous about the proposition of the Bengals? What’s wrong with being only 1 of 2 teams in the entire league with their O-line returning (and finally healthy)? And a quarterback that had a rating of over 90 for his remaining six games, which included Pitt, NE and Baltimore? Or Chad Johnson, the best receiver in the league and AFC yardage champion 2 years running; with TJ, who had almost 1,000; and Warrick, who had almost 1,000 the year prior; or Chris Henry who was likened to Randy Moss predraft; or Kelley Washington, who may come into his own, as most great WR do, in his third year; or Rudi, who broke the single season rushing record last year; or a defense that is greatly improved with a beefed up D-tackle in Robinson, which allows the overtly-athletic Thornton to move to the weak side; and Geathers, a stud at GA who had 3 sacks in 4 starts last year, bookending with Justin Smith, the leaugue’s most underrated player, as well as the NFL DE tackles leader; and Odell Thurman with Pollack - Future pro bowlers to compliment the ever-sturdy Simmons; and Deltha Oneal to go with PROBOWLER Tory James, back with Madieu Williams at Safety, whom should have won ROY honors last year. Yeah, sounds pretty “friggin” ridiculous to me…

Interesting and well thought out predictions. Of course if it were this easy we could all become rich betting on the games.

To respond to the comments on the Broncos.
Last year they were a top five or six defense and offense. The acquisition of the Browns D line is just a cheap way to add competition into the mix. The loss of Reggie, who was decent but probably not worth the money, should be adequately replaced by Cortney Brown.
Essentially, training camp and preseason will probably give the Broncos a D line at least equal to last years even if most of the Browns players get cut. It will probably be slightly better. (Just having Trevor Price back should help.)
All things being equal, which of course they’re not, the Broncos should maintain a top five defense.
The main off-season activity for the Broncos was addressing their biggest weakness. Special teams. This should dramatically improve the team.

But, as you said, they play a tough division in the NFC East, and each of the AFC west teams have gotten better.
I see them winning their division, though any of the AFC west teams have a legitimate argument, at this time of the year, for being the top dog.

It’s fun to make predictions.

Thanks for your predictions, Matt.

While the Dolphins , Bengals, and Ravens picks have been largely disputed here, I can’t believe no one has quibbled with your calls on the Jags and Chiefs. Frankly, pegging the Jags at 12-4 in 05-06 is just insane. Sure, this article posted before the truth came out about Fred Taylor — though you should have seen it coming — but Taylor’s presence in the lineup doesn’t translate into a half dozen wins. Byron Leftwich is one of the most overrated QBs in the league, Del Rio is one of the worst coaches, and the Jacksonville secondary is going to get torched all year by the likes of Manning, McNair, and Carr. No way the Jags come within even 3 games of your prediction.

As for the Chiefs, who you have in last place, they stand the best chance of any AFC West team to win the division. Sure, their defense stinks, but even so they lost 6 contests last year by 7 points or fewer. Trent Green is quietly one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Priest Holmes is healthy, and if the slightly upgraded D can convert even 3 of last year’s close losses into wins, KC will match the record you have for the “division-winner” Chargers. The Chiefs are primed to do better than 7-9, and there’s just no way they’ll fall below the suddenly, inexplicably overrated Raiders.

This is a joke right the Browns having a worse recor than last year? And the Bengals going 11-5? My friend you are mistaken.

I have a question, not a comment?
Can you briefly explain how the NFL scheduling works - it has never made sense to me. Of course, I understand that the better teams play the better teams, etc., but how many games outside your division, and especially, outside your league (AFC playing NFC team) does each team play and how it that decided?

What edition did Peter King mention his Montclair softball team?

Please let me know

thank you