Wednesday, June 8, 2005
Chasing the Dream: Forecasting the AFC
Each year, as May meanders into June, sports personalities throughout the land cast their inferences onto the masses in regards to the upcoming football season.
Though the football season is still a faint glimmer on the horizon, much of the offseason movement has concluded and the once-murky picture has become considerably more pristine. Where there once was a huddled mass of humanity, there is now a very discernable group of figures, each representing a unique team and each carrying with it varying degrees of hope and despair as they set a reasonable bar over which they wish to jump during the 2005 season.
Fans like me — self-proclaimed experts with nothing in particular to gain — revel in this time of year. It is an opportunity for each of us to measure the expectations each team has set for itself and to report on just how realistic these expectations are. Better yet, it is an opportunity for us to bend the public's collective ear with little consideration for anything beyond our own opinion, a concept which if mimicked in any other setting at any other time of the year would be a gross affront to the "Sportswriter's Code" bylaw regarding "fair and balanced" coverage.
To that end, I see clairvoyance as a trait we each exhibit in one capacity or another, and my gift just happens to be the divining of football results based on little more than a cursory review of rosters, depth charts, and stat sheets and a good amount of crazed assumption.
Okay, okay, so sometimes my crystal ball is a bit cloudy. Last season, for instance, my preseason soothsaying forecasted a championship tilt between the Eagles (score one for my "third eye!") and the Broncos (well, one out of two ain't bad). Also, and quite notably, I had Pittsburgh figured as a middle-division team — oops. But, to my credit, I anticipated a big year from the Atlanta Falcons and they certainly did not disappoint. The bottom line is at least I'm not boring the masses with a story on how Brett Favre is the center of the universe or about some 10-and-up sports team I coach in Montclair, NJ (no offense intended to Mr. Peter King of Sports Illustrated fame).
So, with a wing, a prayer, and a good amount of coffee, I offer up my 2005 pre-preseason NFL forecast. For the sake of convenience, I've broken this into AFC and NFC in two separate articles. I'll take a look at the AFC first.
AFC East
New England Patriots 12-4 Miami Dolphins 9-7 New York Jets 9-7 Buffalo Bills 6-10
And the Winner is...
As usual, the Pats are the class of the AFC East. Clearly, all three teams chasing them made huge strides in the offseason, but it will change little come playoff time. As in most every other year since 1990, all four teams will field competitive teams. Unfortunately, each has a huge question mark (Buffalo and Miami at quarterback, New York in their defensive backfield) that will keep them from overtaking the Patriots, though you certainly can see the gap closing if you pay close enough attention. Losing Romeo Crennel and Charlie Weis will cost New England about two wins, but that won't be enough to keep them from hosting a first round game come December.
What Were They Thinking?
The Buffalo Bills have to win this offseason's "We Went to Bed With a Beauty-Queen and Woke Up With a Gargoyle" award. As the 2004 season ended, things looked very good for the Bills as they narrowly missed making the playoffs after an atrocious start to the year. The next thing you know, defensive stalwart Pat Williams is gone along with QB Drew Bledsoe and the reigns turned over to the unproven J.P. Losman.
To follow that up, tackle Jonas Jennings isn't pursued, leaving Losman lacking solid pass protection. Even the impressive Willis McGahee won't be able to save the Bills, who will struggle against the power running games of their division foes and won't be able to put up enough points to consistently win games.
Surprise, Surprise
No, I have not been drinking. And neither have you — that Miami record is correct. Though it is a certainty that this will create much ridicule and/or anger, the fact is the Dolphins were very close in all but two of their losses last year and still field a solid defensive unit, a well-rounded receiver corps, and a promising stable of backs, assuming Ronnie Brown is healthy and Ricky Williams is drug-free. You'll just need to trust me on this one.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals 11-5 Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5 Baltimore Ravens 9-7 Cleveland Browns 3-13
And the Winner is...
Cincinnati, but barely. There are no facts to suggest that the Steelers' run last season was a fluke, but I think the Bengals are finally ready to come of age and parity (not to mention a full year of film on Ben Roethlisberger for opponents to review) should cut Pittsburgh's win total down at least a little bit. The Ravens are the x-factor here, as they could easily be a 12-win team, but I'm just not so sure that an overworked running back and mistake-prone quarterback will be able to finish games off, and I think the loss of LBs Peter Boulware and Edgerton Hartwell are going to sting that defense. Better luck next year for Crennel in Cleveland, but, as they say, you cannot succeed until you fail first.
What Were They Thinking?
I hate to harp on it, but Baltimore letting both Peter Boulware and Edgerton Hartwell leave town will be the undoing of the Ravens' chances this season. Ray Lewis is very obviously losing a step (though he still blows stuff up, he's more of one of those old, swinging wrecking balls now as opposed to the explosive device they use on the Las Vegas casinos, which he used to be more akin to). They are still without a real run-stuffer in the middle of that line. They can move to a 46 defense (which they intend to do part of the time in '06) all they want, but you can't do that without well-rounded, versatile linebackers and they let two of those walk.
Surprise, Surprise
There aren't too many surprises in this grouping of teams, but Cincinnati being projected as the division winner may be one thing that catches some flak. It is a relatively simple formula I used — they have a slightly more favorable schedule than the Steelers. Otherwise, most everything else is equal, and I think their records will indicate that.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars 12-4 Indianapolis Colts 11-5 Houston Texans 8-8 Tennessee Titans 4-12
And the Winner is...
Tentatively, it will be Jacksonville, though much rides on the health of halfback Fred Taylor. Indianapolis is still the most explosive team in football, but they do have to travel to their personal House of Horrors once again in Foxboro, Massachusetts and that defense just doesn't convince me that they'll win all the games that they should. The Texans are slowly but surely getting there, but really needed to do a better job of rebuilding the linebacker unit there. The Titans are in full rebuild mode and won't be much of a factor.
What Were They Thinking?
Tennessee's draft has gotten mixed reviews throughout this offseason. From where I'm sitting, however, there are some serious oversights that need to be addressed. First of which is Adam Jones being taken with the sixth overall pick. Yes, Jones is talented, but he also has some character issues and it has been proven time and time again that you cannot rely on a rookie cornerback to excel at the NFL level. As deep a defensive back class as there was this year, it would have made much more sense to trade down and take a tackle mid-round.
Additionally, Michael Roos, Courtney Roby and Brandon Jones could have been had in later rounds, which leaves one wondering if perhaps Jeff Fisher and Co. are looking at securing an early spot in next year's draft as they develop this year's raw group of draftees. Well, if so, mission accomplished.
Surprise, Surprise
Many pundits see Indy as a lock in this division. I do not. I look at it this way: Peyton Manning cannot possibly repeat his otherworldly performance of a year ago. He can come close, but 49 touchdowns is just plain ridiculous. Additionally, they still haven't fixed their defense, and never will be able to as long as they spend so much money on the other side of the ball. Of all the truths in professional football you are going to hear, none is truer than this tidbit: no team has ever won a championship with just average linebacker play. Go ahead and look it up.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers 10-6 Denver Broncos 8-8 Oakland Raiders 8-8 Kansas City Chiefs 7-9
And the Winner is...
San Diego will take the division with a Week 17 victory at home against the Broncos. By the way, circle that day on your calendars — it should be one of the most entertaining games of the year and the division will almost certainly be riding on it, one way or another. Playing both the AFC and NFC East this season isn't going to do this division any favors, but I would strongly suggest tuning in to any of these four as they play head-to-head. Take Denver out of the equation and you're looking at three of the most explosive offenses this side of the Arena Bowl and the Broncos aren't exactly the 2000 Ravens themselves.
So, as you review the standings, you can pretty much just invert the teams based on strength of defense. Chargers are a hair better than the Broncos, the Raiders are behind both of them by more than a small margin, but look to be slightly better on offense, which balances things a bit. The Chiefs are taking steps, but unfortunately they still have no consistent wide receivers and they have an older Priest Holmes and an overrated, also older Trent Green running the ship.
What Were They Thinking?
Denver lately has seemingly developed into a very odd enigma. They make moves just for the sake of making moves and don't really attempt to fix those areas that need fixing. Case in point: signing the Cleveland Browns' 2004 defensive line. I realize Mike Shanahan has been anointed as some sort of genius in NFL circles, but even he can't be arrogant enough to think he can make the very same players that anchored the league's worst run defense into defensive stalwarts.
Another factor of note, the team lacks pass rushers, so, naturally, they let their top pass-rusher leave via free agency. I can already hear all the Denver fans chiming in with their Clinton Portis-for-Champ Bailey propaganda, but I just don't know what, exactly, that proved. Their defensive stats were almost identical to what they were sans Bailey, and they lost one of the more promising young backs in the game. To follow that up, they let loose their top rusher from a year ago, in what seems to be an annual event. I just don't get it, but I guess I don't have to.
Surprise, Surprise
As good as anyone wants to tell you Kansas City has become with their many moves to bolster the porous defense they trotted out weekly last season, it just doesn't add up to automatic success. Pat Surtain is a stud, but is a bit frail and certainly can't carry a team single-handedly. Derrick Johnson will be a good pro, but has a learning curve to conquer before I anoint him as the second coming. Kendrell Bell, who is also brittle as a ladyfinger, is a fantastic playmaker, but not as consistent as you would hope. They did little to bolster their interior defense, and that is where your bread is buttered come the second half of the NFL season.
For an offense that is growing progressively less explosive, you would like to see bigger steps taken to anchor the defense rather than a handful of moves that do little more than make the team a bit flashier.
Playoff Picture
Division winners: New England, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, San Diego
Wildcard entrants: Indianapolis, Pittsburgh
Round 1: Pittsburgh over San Diego, Cincinnati over Indianapolis
Round 2: New England over Pittsburgh, Cincinnati over Jacksonville
AFC Championship Game: Cincinnati over New England
There you have it! In a shocker, the Cincinnati Bengals upset the defending champs and punch their ticket for Super Bowl XL in Detroit, Michigan.
The best part about picking this early is if I'm wrong, this article will pretty much be an afterthought by December. The worst part is, if I'm right, this article will pretty much be an afterthought by December.
Such is the lot of an NFL soothsayer.
Stay tuned for the NFC preview on Friday, June 10th!