Breaking Down the MLB Trade Deadline

As the summer heats up in Major League Baseball, serious trade talks annually begin to percolate. Generally by this time in June, the buyers and sellers in the midseason free-for-all are not only defined, but are already working the phones. Contenders are looking for that missing piece or two for their championship puzzle, while the pretenders are hoping to unearth some salary cap relief for next year's worst-to-first transformation.

And, of course, misinformation is prevalent as idle chatter regarding what surely is (or is not) going to happen floods the information superhighway.

The 2005 season will be no different, and some very juicy scenarios are beginning to develop, both real and imagined. The usual suspects in Cincinnati, Kansas City, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, and Colorado will certainly be divesting themselves of some talent this month, but some surprise teams also have clearly identified themselves as sellers in Houston, Oakland, and Seattle after beginning the season with much higher hopes than June's reality would indicate.

It remains to be seen just which teams do, in fact, pursue additions from the league's also-rans. Surely, the New York Yankees will at least make an effort to fortify their fading hopes of postseason glory, though a losing June may trigger Steinbrenner's "chaos gene" to reemerge, which, while always comical, would lead to the embarrassing release of once-respected veterans like Gary Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Bernie Williams, Tony Womack, and perhaps even Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina.

While smart money and recent history dictate the "Evil Empire" (as it is known in New England circles) will indeed try to buy renewed hope, other scenarios aren't as cut-and-dried in some of the nation's larger markets. In Chicago, the Cubs and White Sox both find themselves firmly ensconced in playoff races, though admittedly taking very different roads (the Cubbies are up-and-down as they have struggled to cope with a shocking array of major injuries while the Sox owe their consistent early season success to the solid formula of fabulous starting pitching and lineup stability). It is not clear in either case that the market will have what each team needs to really shore up already solid (if healthy) rosters, but both have deep, talented farm systems and intelligent, aggressive general managers.

Elsewhere, both the Dodgers and Angels find themselves one or two difference-making players away from strong contention for their respective division titles. As money isn't a real roadblock in either case, it is a good bet that both will at least make an effort to plug a hole or two by the trade deadline. The other big market team still finding themselves in a relative position of power, the New York Mets, may be tapped out in terms of roster and salary flexibility, but don't rule out at least one big move as GM Omar Minaya has long been recognized as one of the game's best and most shrewd deal-makers.

Neither defending league champion looks to be inclined to make significant changes, as both Boston and St. Louis will both gain key acquisitions later in the year as they grow healthier. However, the other mid-market teams still treading water in Texas, Arizona, Baltimore, Atlanta, Florida, Washington, and San Diego should each be involved in some capacity in what promises to be a trade season the likes of which MLB hasn't had in several years.

Now that the stage is set, let's take a look at some of the moves that make the most sense and a few that may take you by surprise. While it is annually proven that nobody can accurately divine the future (who would have thought in early June last year that Carlos Beltran would end up wearing the star in Houston, for instance?), I have deigned to put my reputation on the line and offer up my view on what course of action the division and wild card contenders look to take in their drive for playoff glory.

AL East

New York Yankees — As an avid Yankee-hater, I feel like a bit of a sellout putting them first on this list. But the reality is they have the deepest wallet and therefore no player is off limits to them and any trade talks have to start in the Bronx. You just know George won't settle for his club's current sub-.500 performance and he will make a strong push to bring the Rocket out of his Houston purgatory. That said, I don't see Roger going back to the Yanks, but I do see one or two big moves being made.

Their biggest need is in centerfield (or left, as they can move Hideki Matsui permanently to center), and, as their farm system is now depleted, they can realistically only deal with a team desperate to rid itself of some big contracts. That team is the Reds, and a deal involving both Ken Griffey, Jr. and Eric Milton makes a lot of sense. Cincinnati would likely require only a couple of mid-level prospects in return (perhaps 2B Robinson Cano and a young pitcher like Jorge De Paula or Sean Henn) as they have openly stated a conviction for wanting to blow the whole thing up and start over from scratch.

Baltimore Orioles — This is another team that may make a run for Eric Milton in Cincinnati. However, they could be more comfortable with their rotation than one would suspect, in which case Milton doesn't make a whole lot of sense. A more likely move, also involving the Reds, would be a deal for outfielder Adam Dunn, though he is the one player that Cincinnati may require a whole lot for in return. The Orioles are in a pretty good position to deal, as Jorge Julio is a youngster with good stuff and experience as a closer and a commodity with which Baltimore could comfortably part.

In my estimation, the first of the two most likely potential scenarios would be for Baltimore to package Julio and Jay Gibbons to Cincinnati for Adam Dunn and a veteran situational reliever like David Weathers or Kent Mercker. The second possibility would be for a less aggressive deal involving Julio and a lower-level prospect or two being shipped to Tampa Bay for Carl Crawford. In any event, Baltimore will be hunting for an outfielder or a spot-reliever to solidify their pen.

Boston Red Sox — Don't expect any moves in Beantown. The defending champs are happy with their current lineup, have plenty of pitching that can only get healthier and aren't likely to take on any significant additions in payroll unless a player like Roger Clemens avails himself to the organization, which is a highly unlikely scenario. If any move gets made, look for a Desi Relaford (Colorado) type or possibly the Phillies Placido Polanco if Philadelphia falls out of contention to be brought in for infield depth. Beyond that, the Red Sox are in an enviable position once again for a run at a division crown and another World Series title.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox — It is no secret that they are quite happy with the results they've gotten thus far from their starting rotation. For that matter, their bullpen has been surprisingly solid throughout the early season, as well. And, as Frank Thomas rounds into form, it is becoming more and more apparent that the ChiSox aren't going away anytime soon. The team does have some holes, though, most specifically at third base. For that reason, Oakland's Eric Chavez makes a lot of sense here.

Chicago has some promising young arms they could peddle in any deal (Brandon McCarthy, Felix Diaz, Ryan Meaux), some solid positional prospects (3B Micah Schnurstein, OF Brian Anderson) and may even be willing to part with OF Aaron Rowand or IF Willie Harris. Another potential deal would involve those Cincinnati Reds and their new third-bagger, Joe Randa. He would come at a much cheaper price, but may not be too big an upgrade over Crede, who currently mans the hot corner on the South Side.

Minnesota Twins — Historically, the Twins have not been major players at the trade deadline. They use players they've developed as well as any organization in baseball and have a very solid, very deep bullpen that has allayed any need for a stockpiling of starting pitchers. If any move is made, it will certainly revolve around their time-tested philosophy of good-fielding, fundamentally-sound ballplayers and a relatively conservative coaching approach.

The only deal outside of some nickel and dime acquisitions to watch would involve Kansas City's 1B/DH Mike Sweeney, who would bring some punch to a lineup lacking a real big stick in the middle. The Twins certainly have the mid-level prospects that the Royals would require in return for Sweeney, but the question is would Minnesota be willing to risk facing those players on a yearly basis in a division rival's uniform?

AL West

Texas Rangers — This team is a healthy mix of young and old and has certainly surpassed some relatively tempered expectations through the first one-third of the season. They are, quite clearly, comfortable with their everyday lineup as they feature the best young infield in baseball and have a solid if unspectacular set of outfielders. The bullpen is one area of concern when thinking about the duration of the season, but a more pressing need is for another dominating presence at the top of that rotation.

Enter one Roger Clemens. Roger has a pretty sweet deal in Houston, as long as you ignore the team's on-field performance — unfortunately for the Astros, Clemens is far too competitive a cat to make this concession, even for his hometown team. The Rangers make the most sense for the Rocket, who, in the twilight of his career, would understandably like to remain as involved in his teenage sons' lives as possible.

Texas, who doesn't have a great deal to offer in terms of minor league depth, does have a glut of corner outfielders with power (Jason Conti or Jason Botts), unproven but promising young arms (Jose Veras, Scott Feldman), and even have a blue-chipper whom they can part with in infielder Adrian Gonzalez. In any case, this source feels fairly confident that Clemens will indeed wind up participating in meaningful games come September, and the Rangers make a whole lot of sense in terms of proximity to his family and in terms of long term help they can send the struggling Astros in return.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim — (Or whatever they call themselves these days.) Ridiculous name-change notwithstanding, the Angels have put together a couple of the more interesting offseasons on record. This has left the team in a very comfortable long-term position. Few moves make a lot of sense, but acquiring a Barry Zito (Oakland) or a C.C. Sabathia (Cleveland) may be key to the Angels passing the Rangers for the division title. The availability of Sabathia is a big question mark, and Zito is unlikely to be sent to a division opponent, so it is much more likely that Anaheim/Los Angeles/California is the eventual landing spot for Cincy's Eric Milton.

Speaking of Cincy, Adam Dunn would be a great fit here, but it doesn't appear that the Angels have the guns to out-bid some of the other teams that would get involved if and when Dunn is put on the market. One last scenario to watch involves the health of Vlad Guerrero. If his rehab has a setback or two, look for the Angels to hit the ground running in search of a power-hitting outfielder named "Wilson" like Colorado's Preston or Pittsburgh's Craig.

NL East

Atlanta Braves — If I've learned anything over the past 15 years, it is to never rule out Braves GM John Schuerholz when discussing anything baseball related. The Braves franchise has become one of the most enviable in terms of front office direction and coaching in all of professional sports and it seems inconceivable that they would stand pat and risk ending their run at division crowns in the newly-rejuvenated NL East Division, especially there are moves to be made.

Two names that jump out at me in terms of possible key acquisitions are Oakland's Eric Chavez and Ugueth Urbina of Detroit. It is no secret that the Braves have closer issues, and Urbina certainly fits that bill and could be had relatively cheaply. Chavez is a bit more appealing in terms of marketability and long-term impact, but would be considerably more expensive. Plus, with Chipper Jones' move back to third, it may be a bit too much to ask of Jones to vacate his preferred defensive outpost once again. Adam Dunn is also a possibility here, or maybe even Wily Mo Pena, but both won't come cheaply and Atlanta has never been one to mortgage the future for the present.

All that said, Urbina makes the most sense in a deal involving a couple of the Braves mid-level minor league prospects. A dark horse deal, however, could surface involving one of the Braves young starters (Horacio Ramirez or Jorge Sosa), RP Danny Kolb, and AA slugger Scott Thorman in a move that brings star closer Brad Lidge over from Houston.

While it may seem like a long shot for the Astros to deal a young and promising closer, the team is in rough shape, has little in terms of developed talent in the minors, and, aside from an aging Clemens, only Lidge can bring real value in return. Getting Kolb could potentially minimize the loss of their closer (though he has struggled of late), and Thorman is for real as a prospective big league slugger. Still another option involves Kansas City's Mike Sweeney, who could be had for a song.

Florida Marlins — The Marlins are in a bad position in terms of trading. They don't have a whole lot of room for error and cannot really trade away any of their major league-ready players. Still, with as many good arms as they have throughout the organization, they could make a handful of small moves to solidify some weak spots. Potential targets include roll players such as Oakland's Eric Byrnes, Kansas City's Matt Stairs, or Pittsburgh's Tike Redman and may also include some bigger-name, higher-priced guys like Colorado's Preston Wilson or Seattle's Randy Winn.

New York Mets — New York's "other" team has put together a relatively deep, considerably overpriced roster of once and future all-stars. As it appears so far, the aging veterans should hold up just long enough for the young stars-in-the-making to develop into legit weapons come this fall. Still, it wouldn't hurt the Mets to pick up one or two proven vets to come off the bench and spell their other vets every now and again.

Names like Jose Vizcaino (Houston), Alex Gonzalez, Julio Lugo (both of Tampa Bay), and Matt Lawton (Pittsburgh) come to mind. Another very real possibility would be for Minaya and the Mets to go after a middle reliever like Seattle's Shigetoshi Hasegawa or Jeff Nelson before all is said and done. While I'm not ready to call out a blockbuster for this team, I wouldn't rule that out, either, as the Mets have proven to be free with their money and GM Omar Minaya can work the phones with anyone.

Washington Nationals — Still in the race in early June, it would be more than a shock to see Washington make any type of move that may interfere with momentum or team chemistry, obvious strengths for this nomadic franchise. It seems much more likely that they fade to the middle division in the NL and build on the positives of 2005 without breaking hearts (or the bank) in their first season in Washington. Much credit is owed to MLB, who have kept their promise and put a competitive squad on the field in the nation's capitol, but I wouldn't expect to see any midseason changes of any great shakes.

Philadelphia Phillies — Yes, I realize that all five NL East teams are included on this list. But, at the time of writing, all five are fully in contention for both the division and the wildcard spot in the National League. The Phillies have the most tenuous hold on this standing, though, and I fully expect them to be out of contention by mid-July.

One thing that can be said about the Phils, though, is that they have some very powerful minor league bargaining chips in 1B Ryan Howard and OFs Shane Victorino, Chris Roberson and Randy Ruiz. Any combination of these, along with maybe Polanco or Endy Chavez, could net a top of the line rotation guy (A's Barry Zito or Seattle's Ryan Franklin), which would dramatically change the outlook for the Phillies and their fans.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs — Many observers would think that the Cubbies are exhausting all leads for bullpen help. Those observers would be mistaking. Since Ryan Dempster's apparent successful transition to closer, LaTroy Hawkins' departure, and Mike Remlinger and Joe Borowski's return to health, the 'pen has fallen into place of late. Roles are more well-defined and the performances are beginning to reflect the comfort level each has found knowing what parts of the game may belong to them.

There remains some questions, though, in the rotation, which has been held together with bubble gum to this point and has miraculously held up (kudos, by the way, to Glendon Rusch, who has quietly slid in behind Roger Clemens, Kenny Rogers, Dontrelle Willis, and Jon Garland as one of the most consistently dominant starters of the early 2005 season).

This last point is the most relevant, and the Cubs' minor league system is still stacked with talented prospects (position players Matt Murton, Felix Pie, Brandon Sing, Ryan Theroit, Buck Coats, and Ronny Cedeno; pitchers Carlos Nolasco and Jae-kuk Ryu) which could land them any number of the big-name pitchers that could find themselves on the market, most notably Oakland's Barry Zito. Another potential spot to be filled is a power-hitting outfielder like the Reds' Dunn or the Rockies' Preston Wilson.

While the Cubs may hold back on making a move with Nomar Garciaparra, Kerry Wood, and Mark Prior all looking to come off the DL sooner rather than later, they have perhaps the most firepower in their minor league system and could really be the trend-setters once the trading begins.

St. Louis Cardinals — This just in, the Cards are good. I think it is not a stretch at all to say that the team will not be making any major moves here. They have as stable a rotation as there is, their bullpen has shown up all year, and their lineup is the envy of baseball. Never say never, though, and middle-to-long relief like the M's Hasegawa, Ben Weber of Cincinnati, KC's Andy Sisco, or Pittsburgh's Solomon Torres are all possible targets, if they can be had at the right price.

NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers — There is not much to speak of in terms of movement in this entire division, but the Dodgers would stand to reason as the most likely to make any kind of impact move. A situational power-pitching reliever would be a strong fit in their pen, and their lineup could use another power hitter. Perhaps a deal involving SS prospect Joel Guzman and AA pitcher Chad Billingsly could net Kansas City's Mike Sweeney and Mike MacDougal, both good fits for the Dodgers. Another hope would be swinging a deal with the Reds for Sean Casey and one or two of their relievers, but that wouldn't sate the franchise's desire to get a middle of the order run-producer, which really should be their priority heading into the trading season.

San Diego Padres — The Pads feature a stable, effective starting rotation and are seemingly content with the lineups they currently put out on the field each day. However, beyond Scott Linebrink and Trevor Hoffman, have some question marks in the bullpen. San Diego does have a couple of major league-ready power hitting prospects in Jon Knott and Ben Johnson (both outfielders) that could be shipped to a team like the Houston Astros for a package including situational reliever John Franco and utility man Jose Vizcaino, which would seemingly make a great deal of sense for both clubs.

Another option, though exponentially less likely, could see the Pads making a run at an impact player like Oakland's Chavez by dangling those same two prospects and promising young catcher Miguel Ojeda. One final possibility would be for San Diego to use some of their bargaining chips to acquire a middle infielder the ilk of Philadelphia's Polanco or Kansas City's Joe McEwing.

Arizona Diamondbacks — By all accounts, won't make a move. They consider themselves very fortunate to be where they are at in the standings, and, like the Nationals, will likely rest on this season's laurels and make a big splash during the offseason rather than risk upsetting the apple cart on a fruitless mid-season acquisition.

As you can see, there is a multitude of scenarios that may or may not play out. By all appearances, players like Kansas City's Mike Sweeney, the Reds' tandem of Eric Milton and Adam Dunn along with the dynamic Oakland duo of Eric Chavez and Barry Zito look to be the most likely to find a new home. Though there does promise to be a plurality of action up to the July 31st trading deadline, many of the moves likely won't generate the attention of a Nomar Garciaparra deal or a move involving Randy Johnson. Still, it is these lesser publicized moves that champions are made of.

No matter what transpires, I would strongly suggest paying lots of attention to Major League Baseball through July. The balance of power in the league could well depend on what does, or does not, get done.

And that isn't just idle chatter.