Friday, May 27, 2005
Daunte’s Peak: Football’s Forgotten Man
He was born in prison to a teenage mother serving time for armed robbery, and was raised the last of 15 foster children. At a no-name college program, he set an NCAA single-season record for passer efficiency, but three quarterbacks were drafted ahead of him in 1999.
At 6-4 and 264 pounds, he can run 40 yards in 4.6 seconds and has a 36-inch vertical jump. He is the most gifted athlete football has witnessed since Barry Sanders. His career passer rating of 93.2 is third-best in league history, behind only Kurt Warner and Steve Young, and in the 2004-2005 regular season, he gained more yards than any quarterback the NFL has seen.
Yet, at 28, Daunte Culpepper's career is over — or never was. So it seemed when he sat on the Pro Bowl bench in Hawaii as the crowd clamored for Michael Vick and Peyton Manning. So it seemed when Vikings owner Red McCombs announced he would sell the team that plays in the league's weakest market.
So it seemed when Randy Moss, the receiver to whom Culpepper apparently owes all success, was traded to Oakland for a disappointing young linebacker and a first-round draft pick.
At least, that's the scoop you'll hear from most major media outlets, if they mention Culpepper at all.
The troubling news is there's truth to that story — if Culpepper hasn't done enough to earn our adulation already, what more can he expect?
In just 73 starts, he's passed for 18,598 yards and 129 touchdowns and added an additional 2,329 yards and 28 touchdowns on the ground — 287 yards and two scores per game. His 2004 passer rating of 110.9 is fourth-best ever, and his career completion percentage of 64.4 ranks second only to Kurt Warner's in league annals.
Still, names like Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Chad Pennington are more likely to prick the ears of casual listeners. Ask fans to name even the best black quarterbacks in the league, and McNabb, Vick, and McNair will likely precede him.
How did Culpepper become the NFL's pariah? Where did the league go wrong in promoting him?
Simple — Daunte missed the window. When Culpepper hit the scene in 2000, the NFL front office already had two poster-boy quarterbacks in Kurt Warner and Brett Favre. When the Rams receded, the league determined that the age of offense was coming to an end and quickly adopted Ray Lewis as the new face of the NFL.
Old habits, however, are hard to break. A league in love with quarterbacks found its windfall of windfalls when Dan Reeves made Michael Vick the first pick in the 2001 draft. Vick would play in one of the league's strongest markets and was eminently marketable to the Madden video game generation. Paul Tagliabue had his messiah.
Through 2005, the league has clung to that decision, despite Vick's shortcomings. And, sadly, in a sport where the race issue is supposed to be a non-issue, apparently we can have only so many black quarterbacks sharing the spotlight. Thanks to Donovan McNabb's successes and Vick's popularity, Culpepper so far has been the odd man out.
He's also been a victim of circumstance and misperception. The NFL likes players who play for winning teams, and the Vikings have struggled in this regard. Through his five seasons at quarterback, Culpepper has led the NFC's most productive offense, yet Minnesota's defense has never finished in the top two-thirds of the league during that same period.
More tragically, Culpepper has been pigeonholed as the guy who throws the ball to Randy Moss. Moss, an astonishing talent, has plagued the locker room during Culpepper's tenure, and the recent Oakland trade was an attempt to end this pandemic, despite myriad press releases to the contrary.
Culpepper is now the undisputed leader of a team without an owner in a market the NFL has all but forsaken. For Daunte, it's a good fit.
The "Culpepper Roll" Gathers No Moss?
The line around the league is — Culpepper's success slumps minus Moss' production. This wart, of course, is entirely genuine. After all, what quarterback wouldn't take a hit without his primary receiver?
If you crunch the numbers for 2004, subtracting The Freak's influence from Daunte's season totals, you'll find that Culpepper threw for 3,950 yards and 26 touchdowns without Moss — a significant loss, though still better than all but six quarterbacks in the league. However, run the same scenario for other top NFL passers and you'll uncover similar results.
Without Marvin Harrison, Peyton Manning logged 3,444 yards and 35 touchdowns — and that's with Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley still in the fold. Deduct Javon Walker's production from Brett Favre's totals, and Favre only threw for 2,706 yards and 18 touchdowns. Donovan McNabb, minus Terrell Owens, accounted for only 2,675 yards and 17 touchdowns through the air.
The bottom line — saying that a quarterback's numbers will suffer without his primary receiver is like saying that Freddie Mitchell will put his foot in his mouth. It's a given. Unless you're the Atlanta Falcons or the Kansas City Chiefs, another receiver will step up to fill that 1,000-yard void.
Even if Moss' primary successor only hauls in 700 yards and 5 touchdowns, Culpepper will still break the 4,000-yard, 30-touchdown mark in 2005.
In three games without Moss last season, Culpepper posted some of his best numbers of the year, completing 71.5 percent of his passes for 765 yards and seven scores, with a passer rating of 112.2. During that period, the Vikings offense averaged 27 points per game.
In fact, given the uncertainty of changing conferences and offensive schemes, it's much more likely that Moss will suffer without Culpepper, rather than the contrary. After all, despite the media hype, Kerry Collins finished the 2004-2005 season with a 74.8 passer rating and only 6.81 yards per attempt.
Only in Your Fantasies...
Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in fantasy football, and he should be the first overall selection in your draft, even though running backs are still king. Yet, even without Moss, Daunte Culpepper is easily the second-best fantasy QB and is worth taking later in the first round.
However, don't buy into the Nate Burleson and Troy Williamson hype. Both of these guys have a lot to prove before they're worth selecting in the mid-rounds of your draft. If Burleson slips, he's worth a shot later on, but there is better value to be had at receiver around the league.
Finally, Randy Moss is a great player, but don't get suckered by the media hype surrounding his move to Oakland. The Raiders offense is still insipid, Lamont Jordan is not the answer at running back, and Moss will struggle to match the number of touchdowns to which his owners are accustomed. If you're forced to decide between Moss and guys like Hines Ward, Chad Johnson, and Joe Horn, stick with the known quantities.