NFL Draft Winners and Losers

The NFL draft — even just the first day — is a big deal, and there's no room for Five Quick Hits, even if they're quicker than usual. I'll throw in some general offseason comments to make up for it.

First Day Draft Winners

* Detroit Lions: This is the third year in a row I've declared them draft winners, and I think this will be the season they prove me right. A lot of people are criticizing them for spending their first selection on Mike Williams, because it wasn't a need pick for the Lions, but it gives them scary offensive options if they put him three-wide with Charles Rogers and Roy Williams. It's also comforting that there won't be a huge drop-off if Rogers or Roy Williams gets injured again, and if any of them leaves through free agency, the team is still covered at wide receiver. I really like the pick.

Detroit went with defense after that, trading away a fourth-round pick for the chance to take Mike Williams' former teammate, DT Shaun Cody, a great value in the second round. In the third, the Lions nabbed Stanford DB Stanley Wilson, who will probably play in nickel packages in 2005. The team only has two selections on Day Two, but there's not much more it needs.

This offseason, the Lions added a starter-quality quarterback (Jeff Garcia) to right the ship if Joey Harrington struggles. Whoever is throwing the ball should have plenty of targets, and Kevin Jones is an exciting prospect in the backfield, with Cory Schlesinger blocking for him. Guards Joe Andruzzi and Rick DeMulling defected (from the Patriots and Colts, respectively) to Detroit in free agency to give the offensive line a huge boost, and Marcus Pollard is on board, too. The offense should be among the league's best next season.

The Lions have one of the better interior defensive lines in the NFL, with Cody joining Dan Wilkinson and Shaun Rogers, and a great defensive backfield that starts Dré Bly, Fernando Bryant, Brock Marion, and Kenoy Kennedy. If Boss Bailey is healthy, he and Teddy Lehman give the team bookend OLBs, and Earl Holmes is reliable in the middle. Even special teams are a strength; Eddie Drummond will be back as returner, and the team's coverage units are among the league's best.

What the Lions got in this draft were depth and versatility. Injuries sunk the team last season after a 3-1 start (the loss was to Philadelphia), but the club seems positioned to fill most of the holes next season if necessity calls. If I'm in Detroit's front office today, I like the way my team looks.

* Adam "Pacman" Jones: Over the last week, there were rumblings that Jones had fallen behind Carlos Hall and could drop as far as the mid-teens. Instead, he was the first cornerback selected, going sixth overall to the Titans.

* Cincinnati Bengals: No one knows how draft picks are going to turn out, but the Bengals certainly seem to have turned things around since Marvin Lewis came on as head coach. First-rounder David Pollack could team with Justin Smith to give Cincinnati a terrific pair of pass rushers; Pollack is a little undersized, but so is Dwight Freeney. Second-round choice Odell Thurman, Pollack's teammate at Georgia, will probably start at middle linebacker. Third-round WR Chris Henry is a first-round physical talent whose personal issues make him a gamble with any first-day pick, but even if he doesn't work out, the Bengals have gotten two solid choices.

* Auburn University: Three players in the first nine picks, and they didn't even get a shot to play for the so-called national championship? A total of four Tigers went in the first round, including two to Washington alone.

* Minnesota Vikings: Got a speedy wide receiver, a pass-rushing defensive end, and a mammoth offensive lineman. Troy Williamson won't come close to replacing Randy Moss, but he'll stretch the field and complement Nate Burleson. End is one of the few defensive positions the team didn't upgrade through free agency, so Erasmus James is a nice fit. Some scouts had a first-round grade on Marcus Johnson, the team's second-round selection. Third-round pick Dustin Fox is seen as a bit of a reach, but this looks like a strong draft so far.

* Matt Jones: The first real shock of the draft came when Jacksonville selected Jones to fill their WR needs with the 21st pick in the draft. Jones, a QB at Arkansas, is probably the best pure athlete in the draft, but few analysts had him projected in the first round, and many teams wouldn't have touched him in the second. This is a risky pick for a team that has bombed on receivers in recent years, but it could also turn out to be the steal of the draft. I would have played it safe with Mark Clayton available, but it's tough to criticize the Jags for rolling the dice on Jones.

* Maurice Clarett: I am stunned that he went on the first day. I will continue to be stunned if Denver does not regret picking him.

First Day Draft Losers

* Aaron Rodgers: Might as well get this one out of the way. Until 12:30 Eastern, he was still a possibility to go first overall, but when the 23rd card had been handed in, Rodgers was still available. Green Bay finally stopped the bleeding by taking Rodgers with the 24th pick, but it was a nasty fall for a prospect expected to go in the top five. I don't envy him the expectations that come with succeeding Brett Favre, either (see Griese, Brian, and Fiedler, Jay).

* Washington: They're here mostly for making the offseason's worst trade. Unless Washington finishes with one of the eight best records in the NFL this season — which is not likely — the 2006 first-round pick they traded to Denver will be higher than the one they obtained, and they sweetened that with third- and fourth-round choices. They even tipped their hand by making the trade during the week rather than on draft day, and so risked losing their man (Jason Campbell) to anyone else who wanted him around the same spot.

Minus the unwise timing of the trade, someone seems to do this every year now. In 2003, the Ravens gave New England first- and second-round choices to obtain the 19th overall pick and select Kyle Boller. In 2004, Buffalo traded first-, second-, and fifth-round picks to take J.P. Losman. Now, in 2005, Washington drops first-, third-, and fourth-round picks for a low first-rounder, used on Campbell. All those trades constitute senseless wasting of draft picks — just to acquire unproven quarterbacks not regarded as the top QB prospects in their respective draft classes.

And while the consensus seems to be that the team wanted Campbell and Carlos Rogers, the draft treated Washington with some irony. Antrel Rolle was widely regarded as the top DB in the draft, and there were probably a lot of excited fans in the nation's capital when he was still on the board at eighth. Arizona was expected to go with offense, and Washington was up next. But the Cardinals took Rolle, and Washington followed with another CB, Rogers.

Later, as the 25th pick drew closer, Rodgers was still on the board. Everyone knew Washington wanted Campbell, but no one had thought Rodgers might still be available. Again, fans held their breaths waiting for a top prospect to drop one more spot. But the Packers snapped him up, and Washington followed with Campbell, marking the second time that Washington had chosen a player of the same position directly behind a top prospect who fell further than expected. First, they took Rogers right after Rolle, and then Campbell right after Rodgers. Even if the team wanted Rogers and Campbell all along, a lot of Washington fans are probably disappointed right now.

* Dan Cody: Rodgers' fall was undoubtedly the most dramatic, but Cody dropped just as far. Projected by many as a late first-round pick, he dropped to the bottom of the second round before the Ravens grabbed him.

Other Notes

* Arizona's selection of J.J. Arrington muddies the Travis Henry picture. Philadelphia is a destination that's being mentioned in connection with Henry's name more and more often.

* I don't think the Cowboys expected Rodgers to be available when they chose DeMarcus Ware with the 11th pick, and I bet Jerry Jones double- and triple-checked with Bill Parcells before sending Ware's card to Paul Tagliabue. "Bill, are you sure you don't want the quarterback?" Rodgers was still on the board when Dallas chose at twenty, too. "Bill, are you positive you don't want the quarterback?"

* The Giants are still paying for the Eli Manning trade. San Diego used New York's pick (12th overall) on Shawne Merriman, and San Diego still has the Giants' fifth-round pick on Day Two. Call me crazy, but I'd rather have Philip Rivers, Merriman, Nate Kaeding, and a fifth-round choice than just Little Manning. There was a lot of talent still on the board when the Chargers took Merriman, and I bet the Giants were missing that pick.

* One of those talents was OT Jammal Brown. A lot of people had Carolina, at 14th, taking Brown, but the Saints traded up to fill a need of their own and may have thrown a wrench into a division rival's plans by doing so. Double-credit.

* Fabian Washington was the first pick that I really didn't like. Oakland traded up to get the player with fastest 40-yard dash in this year's draft, but Washington wasn't a first-round-quality standout at Nebraska and probably won't be able to start on defense for a while, if ever. I thought for sure someone trading ahead of Green Bay and Washington would take Rodgers.

* Similar situation in Seattle. Did I say Matt Jones was a shock at 21? Not compared to Mississippi OL Chris Spencer at 26th. I don't think anyone else had Spencer on their first-round draft board, and while Seattle must have liked Spencer quite a lot to take him so high, they certainly could have gotten him a little later. This wasn't a good value for the pick.

The Seahawks originally had the draft's 23rd selection, but they moved down three spots — for a fourth-rounder. That's a miniscule price for moving up in the first round; Al Davis must have been shocked when Seattle agreed. That tells me the 'Hawks wanted Spencer all along, and recognized 23rd as too high, but wanted to be absolutely certain they got their man and didn't trade down again. If Spencer was the only guy they wanted early, Seattle should have gotten at least a third-rounder, and probably more, before taking him.

Spencer's a junior with upside, but it's unlikely he'll start as a rookie, making this an even stranger choice with Mike Holmgren not guaranteed to be around after next season.

* Roddy White, whom the Falcons took 27th, is a solid pick, and not a surprise for a team desperate for a standout receiver. Most mock drafts had Atlanta taking White; it should be a good match. I question, though, whether he'll be a true go-to receiver. Having two of Peerless Price wouldn't be much better than having one.