April showers may bring May flowers, but for NFL General Managers, the April selection draft brings strategy sessions and player negotiations.
The NFL offseason generally exists in four main phases: free agency part one, college prospect evaluation, the selection draft, and free agency part two.
By the time the selection draft comes around, teams have attempted to fill some needs with available free agents. Free agents are proven NFL players and therefore bring lower risk than a first round draft pick.
Well-priced free agents can also be very cap-friendly and provide a team good value for the cap space that a veteran can be signed for compared to the sky-rocketing signing bonuses that first-round draft picks now command.
Several NFL people shake their heads at the astounding numbers that are now part of first-round draft pick contracts. Remember, these draft picks, while they may have impressive college stats, have never played a down of NFL football.
How much value did the New York Giants really get for the $20 million signing bonus, the largest ever for rookies, for Eli Manning and the loss of their third-round pick last year and both their first- and fifth-round picks this year?
Sure, he played in place of Kurt Warner later last season. He had to. You don't keep that kind of money and future selections on the bench. Unless, of course, you are the San Diego Chargers. The man they acquired in the Manning trade, Philip Rivers, he of the $14.5 million signing bonus, sat on the bench all year.
Drew Brees was drafted as the first pick on the second-round in 2001 and signed for a $1.9 million signing bonus (after holding out and missing 19 practices). Now, after a 27 TD and 7 INT season for Brees, who is more valuable to the Chargers?
Brees commands big money this year and he signed the franchise tender from the Chargers for over $10 million for this coming season. But Brees is now a proven veteran. Who knows what kind of year the Chargers would have had with Rivers under center?
The point is, Brees' contract was very manageable and didn't waste a great deal of cap space. Now that Brees is proven, his contract can be based upon his past numbers. Manning and Rivers' contracts are based upon draft position and not much else.
Somebody has to be drafted first and those players command big dollars. However, NFL teams are less inclined to want to pay those big dollars these days. This free agent season was fairly low-key with few huge signings.
Some players tested the waters and found that most teams are not willing to pay contracts that include big signing bonuses that then impact on the salary cap for years into the future whether the player is still playing football for them or not.
Manning and Rivers are examples of wasted cap dollars. But, you say, what about Peyton Manning? He more than earned his big bonus he signed for after being the No. 1 pick in 1998.
Okay. How about Ki-Jana Carter? David Klingler? Ryan Leaf? Akili Smith? Jeff George? Tim Couch? Joey Harrington?
If you were to add up the signing bonuses for these players, the sum would be greater than the gross domestic product of several third-world countries and these guys aren't setting the third-world on fire, either.
Once again, the high draft picks received the high signing bonus and made very little impact on the game.
Take another look at that list above and the fact that all of the above players except one are quarterback jumps out at you.
That's why right now the most frightening place to be is in San Francisco and Miami.
Both teams are attempting to recover from horrendous seasons. Both teams have new head coaches. The media and fan pressure to improve is huge and to make matters worse, these teams have the first two picks in the college draft and wouldn't you know it, there are two quarterbacks who are being touted as the top prospects.
History shows that the odds of the top QB prospect being a franchise-type player worth the big signing bonus are pretty slim. The chances that both Alex Smith of Utah and Aaron Rodgers of California will be worth $40 million in guaranteed money between the two of them are almost none.
Remember, Peyton Manning was chosen first and Ryan Leaf was taken second.
Even the legendary class of 1983 that produced six quarterbacks in the first round shows that chances are about 50/50 that teams will get it right.
Sure, in 1983, John Elway was the first QB selected and in fact first overall. Good pick. Quick. Name the second QB chosen. Did you choose Dan Marino? Jim Kelly?
The second QB and sixth overall choice was Todd Blackledge from Penn State.
Kelly, out of Miami, was the third QB and 14th pick. Right behind Kelly, the New England Patriots chose Tony Eason from Illinois.
Down at number 24, Ken O'Brien from California-Davis was selected by the New York Jets and sneaking in before the first round was over some guy from Pittsburgh named Dan Marino who was chosen by the Miami Dolphins at number 27. Back in 1983, there were only 28 picks in the first round.
So, even in the glory year of 1983, we have Elway, Marino, and Kelly against Blackledge, Eason, and O'Brien. The greatest QB draft in the history of the NFL yielded a 50-percent return for teams who went for a QB in the first round.
So, given the history of choosing quarterbacks, what must San Francisco and Miami be thinking? They are probably thinking that they would like to trade out of the top spot. But who is going to trade with them?
The problem with selecting first is that you have to pay first. The first overall pick gets the first overall money. If you can get your guy with a lower pick, why trade?
Maybe somehow, the 49ers and Dolphins will find someone who wants a fistful of picks in future years and would be willing to entertain a trade if they receive future draft picks. But again, the threat would have to be that their guy would not be on the board unless they make the move.
In order for one team to want to do this, they would need to feel that they are trading for a sure-fire, franchise player. Trouble is for San Francisco and Miami, that guy doesn't exist this year.
Even the RB position seems to be packed full of guys who can play and who could easily be chosen later in the round and then signed for fewer dollars.
Ronnie Brown and Carnell Williams from Auburn are seen as highly-ranked prospects. This is interesting when neither one could keep the other off the field at Auburn. Why would a team in the NFL pay first-round, first-string signing bonus money to a guy who split time with another back in college?
Because someone has to be picked first and that someone gets the cash.
Put yourself in the shoes of the San Francisco 49ers. They have fallen hard from their lofty perch in the NFL and managed to tie the all-time franchise record for losing last season. They have a huge void at the QB position and hometown boy Aaron Rodgers is available. If not him, Alex Smith from the Cinderella-BCS-crashing Utah Utes is also for the taking.
Move across the country. The Miami Dolphins were fortunate enough to have one of the all-time greatest quarterbacks play for them for years. However, they have not come close to replacing him. The fans are screaming for a quarterback and the lack of progress on that has already reaped one head coach casualty.
Given all circumstances, whether they like it or not, both the 49ers and Dolphins may find themselves in place from which there is no escape. It is very likely that both will select a player that they would have been happier to choose several places further down the list.
Both teams will then pay through the nose for him and maybe even see that player holdout over contract demands.
After all the hand wringing, the odds say that at least one of these players will be a bust.
And the price of admission to watch all this is only about $20 million.
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