Who Will Rule College Hoops in 2006?

To say this year's NCAA tournament was a treat would be the equivalent of saying LeBron James is athletic. The four regional finals alone had four overtime periods, the championship showcased the top two teams in the land in a game that was tied with three minutes left, and Roy Williams will never again be called the best coach to never earn a championship ring. It's no wonder the championship ratings were up 43% over last year.

The rims have barely been re-netted in St. Louis and already fans are clamoring for next season's tip-off. Who can blame them after a tourney like we witnessed? Across the nation, eyes were glued to televisions as the likes of Raymond Felton, Rashad McCants, Marvin Williams, Luther Head, Deron Williams, and Roger Powell showcased their considerable talents. And that was just in the finale.

Throughout the rest of the tourney and regular season, we marveled at the diverse talents of Louisville's Francisco Garcia, Washington's Nate Robinson, Connecticut's Charlie Villanueva, Vermont's Taylor Coppenrath, Chris Paul at Wake Forest, Hakim Warrick at Syracuse, Aaron Miles and Wayne Simien at Kansas, and Salim Stoudamire and Channing Frye at Arizona. This season had more star power than Mars Attacks.

In college basketball, though, star power arrives and dissipates like quicksand. Every player listed above is either a senior or a solid bet to make the jump to the NBA, along with a few others that aren't mentioned (will Sean May really stay after giving his draft status such a huge shot in the arm in the Final Four?). That means the field is relatively wide open again for a championship run in 2006, and you can bet there are already plenty of teams who think they've got what it takes to cut down the nets next year.

The fact is, there are four teams who stand head and shoulders above the rest. An early Final Four prediction if you will, should the stars and brackets line up. Of course, it's preposterously early to be making predictions, and injuries, chemistry problems, transfers, hirings and firings, and many other variables will play a role in who's dancing next March.

After the excitement of Monday's thriller, however, basketball fans don't care. What do we want? MORE BASKETBALL. When do we want it? NOW. With that mantra in mind, I've prepared an early look at who might compose next year's Final Four. Enjoy playing king of the hill while you can, UNC. Your best five (May, McCants, Felton, and the two Williams) might all be gone by opening tip next year. A similar warning to Illinois, Louisville, and Michigan State faithful; none of your squads made the cut. Find out who did and why.

Duke Blue Devils

Pros: Sorry, Duke-haters. The facts are that the ACC's top offensive player, J.J. Redick (21.8 ppg, 40% on three-pointers), will be back to tag-team the conference and nation again with Shelden Williams, a legitimate Player of the Year candidate, should he develop a more complete offensive game to complement the 11.5 rebounds and 3.75 blocks a game he averaged last year. Williams and Redick, who is already the NCAA's all-time leading free throw shooter at 93.8%, should have plenty of help from both the experience of Shavlik Randolph and Sean Dockery and the youth of an amazing recruiting class.

Leading the class will be PF Josh McRoberts, a 6-11 specimen who can shoot from outside and pass like a two-guard — possibly the nation's top recruit last year. Also coming aboard will be New York PG Greg Paulus, who's such an effective athlete that he's started on his varsity squad since eighth grade and was a Rivals top-100 recruit ... as a quarterback in football. Sprinkle in Eric Boateng and Jamal Boykin, another pair of legit talents, and Coach Krzyzewski has amassed the best class in all the land. Coach K himself is, of course, another major reason why the Dukies could be scary good this year.

Cons: Losing Daniel Ewing will be noticeable, especially in the beginning of the year when all that youth is still trying to gel with the studs Redick and Williams. A tough ACC schedule may also make it that much harder for the Blue Devils to get a high seed in the NCAAs, although that wasn't much of a problem this year. And, as always, Coach K's bunch will sport a big bulls-eye and get every team's best shot. Last year, they prematurely lost Luol Deng to the NBA after one season, and Shaun Livingston before he ever played a game. Will anyone else make a surprise early exit this year? Overall, not much to like about this team.

Oklahoma Sooners

Pros: The Sooners will return unheralded forwards Taj Gray (15 ppg, 8 rpg, 56% FG) and Kevin Bookout (11 ppg, 59% FG) for veteran coach Kelvin Sampson. Also G Terrell Everett (13 ppg, 5 rpg, 5 apg) is and will be a standout defensively; at 6-4, he's long enough to really bother other guards. Oklahoma has as good of chance as anyone to add SF Brandon Rush, the brother of Kareem Rush and probably the third or fourth best prospect in the nation. G Drew Lavender played much better coming off the bench last season, and he'll probably be able to thrive in that role again. G Lawrence McKenzie averaged 10 ppg, but, more importantly, brings experience to the table. Sampson's bunch lost only two seniors, and neither of them were of great consequence.

Cons: Until he proves otherwise, Lavender is too inconsistent for an extended quality tournament run. Whether he can clean up his play will have a huge impact on how far the Sooners go in March. During one January stretch, the guard had consecutive games of 0, 10, 20, 23, 11, 8, and 3 points while playing anywhere from 29 to 36 minutes in each of those games. When Oklahoma wins, Lavender averages 12 ppg on 43% shooting. When they lose, he's right at 7.7 ppg and 24% accuracy. He's this team's X factor.

Connecticut Huskies

Pros: Like Duke, UConn will have a great deal of experience meshed with youth. They will once again boast one of strongest frontcourts in the country, even with the heavy loss of big man Charlie Villanueva. Rudy Gay will back for his sophomore campaign, and is a kid that could flat out be a stud. He played especially well towards the end of last year, averaging 16.4 ppg, 2.4 bpg, and 52.7% shooting in the Huskie's last five games. Gay has range out to the arc, but is only an average passer, and needs to board better. Rebounds were hard to come by last year with Josh Boone and Villanueva on the court, but Gay should notch it up a peg this year.

Boone (12 ppg, 8 rpg, 2.58 bpg, 61% FG) is another major factor back with experience. PG Marcus Williams (9.6 ppg, 7.8 apg) is quick enough to be better defensively, but is great at distributing the ball. Sometimes he does too much, however, and gets into turnover problems. Incoming seven-footer Andrew Bynum has potential, but might not see a ton of minutes this year with a load of talent in front of him. Then there's Jim Calhoun, freshly inducted into the Hall of Fame. Don't count on success going to his head. A lot of people will rightfully pick UConn to win it all in 2006.

Cons: Can they really replace all that Charlie Villanueva brought to the table? Is Marcus Williams ready to take the next step, or has he peaked as a good player that will never be great? Perhaps the most concerning question after last year's early tournament exit — do they have the right makeup to win when it counts?

Kentucky Wildcats

Pros:: Tubby Smith returns, hopefully along with leading scorer and senior G/F Kelenna Azubuike (15 ppg, 5 rpg, 49% FG) who is no guarantee to come back. (Ed. Note: He declared for the NBA draft and signed with an agent April 7th.) Like most college kids, Azubuike was inconsistent defensively, but he did provide offense when Kentucky needed it. To elevate his game, he'll need to become an improved passer and ball-handler. Now-sophomore PG Rajon Rondo is a definite factor on both ends (8.1 ppg, 51% as a freshman). He had at least one steal in every game last year, including eight during one contest vs. Mississippi State.

Sophomore C Randolph Morris is a 6-10, 266 lb. specimen who averaged 9 ppg on 53% shooting, but was inconsistent defensively. Morris's play dropped off at the end of last year, and he'll have to work on conditioning if that was the cause. Senior G Patrick Sparks showed everyone what his forte was in the big dance when his three-pointer danced around the rim for eons before sending UK to overtime against Michigan State (the Wildcats lost anyway, but it was an incredible shot). Sparks averaged 11 ppg and shot 37.6% from downtown, but is he too one-dimensional?

Cons: Losing Chuck Hayes hurts more than some folks in Kentucky would like to admit, and Rondo doesn't have three-point range yet. For that matter, he doesn't have free throw range yet, hitting on only 60% of his free throws. Plus Morris still has a lot to learn before his game is fully developed. How fast the youngsters develop will determine exactly how far this team might go in March. If Sparks gets hurt, teams will just play zone and exploit Kentucky's lack of outside shooting.

What do we want? MORE BASKETBALL. When do we want it? NOW. I'm with you, college hoops fans. Projections and analysis will have to do for now, though, and while the 2005 NCAA tournament was a star-studded act that will be hard to follow, have faith that the above four teams and a host of others will make the 2006 season a memorable one. Until then, it's good to be a Tar Heel.

Also rans: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida