This is the point in a marathon where some runners hit the wall and must fight on, despite pain and tiredness (unless you're Rosie Ruiz, that is). Three-quarters of the NBA season is over and playoff positioning is now the focus for some of the Association's 30 squads.
Usually, the most interesting stories to any late-season push come out of the race for a final one or two spots in the extra season. It's no different this time 'round. Compared to this time last year, the Western Conference is stacking up pretty similar.
San Antonio's near the top. The middle-tier includes Dallas, Houston, Memphis, and Sacramento. But there are a couple things out of place (three, to be exact).
The Lakers, minus Shaq and Phil Jackson, have struggled to stay above sea level throughout the campaign. Last year's Rocky Mountain surprise, Denver, has played the most rousing round of hot potato when talking head coaches. And where's the '03-'04 conference champ? With a slow start, Minnesota hasn't been a factor since mid-December. That is, until now.
These three teams that made statements in the last postseason are now fighting each other for the final spot in the upcoming postseason. So, in the 20-or-so games left in the regular stanza, who's got the upper hand? In my mind, the edge has to go to the Denver Nuggets.
1) Schedule
When looking at the remaining schedule of all three teams, two have an improving outlook heading toward the playoffs. Entering Tuesday, Denver is left with 20 contests. 12 of those (including the next six) are in the high altitude of the Pepsi Center, and nine feature opponents that are under .500.
Minnesota's path over the next few weeks is a little worse ... but not bad. The Wolves will play 18 times, with 10 of those games on the road. They also get to face eight sub-.500 teams. The Lakers, on the other hand, won't like their run. L.A. is slated to play 12 road games in their last 20, and only six of those contests give them an opponent with a higher loss than win total.
2) Momentum
Coming out of the weekend, the Nuggets were still one of the league's hottest teams, despite a 106-101 loss to Phoenix. The Powder Blue have come up winners in eight of nine games following the All-Star Recess. Just as impressive is their 13-5 record from the first of February.
Meanwhile, the Lakers and T-Wolves seem to be fighting to see who can be the most mediocre. Both squads are even since the break (L.A. is 6-6 with Monday's loss to the Wizards and Minnesota's 5-5). The records get even worse over time, with these two teams dropping below .500 as you expand back to the beginning of last month.
3) Coaching
There's new air on the face of the Rockies, and most of it swept in with the arrival of head coach George Karl. The veteran leader seems to have the team focused in a direction that might end up being higher than the surrounding elevation. The team won game one of the Karl era on January 29th and have kept the blinders on. The resulting 15-5 sprint to this point has experts putting the Nuggets in the playoffs as a dangerous lower seed.
Karl's wealth of experience pushed Seattle and Milwaukee to be consistent playoff fixtures in 11 out of 12 straight seasons. Who do the Lakers and Timberwolves have stalking their sidelines?
With such illustrious names as Pat Riley and Phil Jackson being on the bench in recent history, L.A. has dipped into the obscure. Frank Hamblen's only pro head coaching job before this stint was during most of the '91-'92 Bucks season. That didn't go very well, either (23-42 in 65 games).
To the Lakers' credit, they were forced into the situation with the resignation of Rudy T. But if they weren't playing that well under a two-time champion coach, what can you expect from the current situation?
In Minneapolis, a big name is currently filling the coach's seat. Unfortunately, he really doesn't want to be there. At this point, Kevin McHale would serve the franchise better if he brought out his old 32 jersey and did some wind sprints. Even a percentage of his career stats (17.9 ppg, 7.3 rpg) could help Kevin Garnett in the paint.
It hasn't all been bad. The team is 7-5 since firing long-time coach Flip Saunders, but would I want the X's and O's coming from someone who's played in five Finals or someone who's coached one (as Karl has)?
Putting the factors together, there's not much to suggest that fans from Hollywood or St. Paul will enjoy a playoff push at the end of April. Attention Western Conference juggernauts, bring your oxygen tanks. I've heard the mountain air is pretty thin.
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