History Against Unbeaten Teams

In what has seemed like a topsy-turvy year in college basketball, with ranked teams knocking each other off almost nightly, there has remained two constants: Illinois and Boston College. Both are undefeated so far, but can either parlay a perfect season into a national title? Recent history would say, "no."

Before we look ahead, let's take a look back at the history of undefeated teams in NCAA basketball and see how they've fared through their seasons and tournament appearances.

First, since 1948 (as far back as the official NCAA record book goes), there have been only nine undefeated teams, the last being Indiana in 1976. Four other teams entered the NCAA tournament with an unblemished record, only to lose in the tournament; two of them lost in the title game, the most recent being Larry Bird's Indiana State team in 1979.

Therefore, the likelihood of either Illinois or Boston College going undefeated is rather slim. But, if they can and make it through the tournament, the chances of them winning the title are very good. The last team to go unbeaten through the regular season an not make it to the championship game was UNLV in 1991 when they lost in the national semifinal.

On the other hand, six teams have won the national title after dropping a game during the season. The 1974 NC State squad led by David Thompson, which took home the trophy with a 30-1 record, is the last team to win it all with an "and one" record. However, it's been a while since anyone has been able to accomplish either feat, roughly 25 or 30 years.

Which is why one of the two remaining unbeatens has a better chance of finishing with no losses than the other and, therefore (maybe), a better chance at winning the "ship." That team? Illinois.

No disrespect to Boston College, but when their remaining schedule is taken into consideration, they have a much tougher row to hoe than do the Illini. The Eagles' schedule the rest of the way, which is eight games, is chock full of tough opponents. Only two of the games is against a team with a sub-.500 record (Rutgers at 7-11). The rest of the games are against teams that have not yet reached double-digits in the loss column.

Saturday, the Eagles visit Seton Hall (10-8), then travel to Notre Dame (13-5) on Tuesday. After that it's Rutgers, Syracuse (20-2), at Villanova (12-5), Seton Hall again, Pittsburgh (15-3), and at Rutgers to end the season. It might be noted that Villanova is the only team Boston College has played before, and the Eagles squeaked out a 67-66 win on their home floor. It might be a different outcome when they travel to 'Nova.

Meanwhile, Illinois has a decidedly easier schedule the rest of the way. Their next two games are against teams they haven't faced yet, but both are mediocre at best. Indiana (10-9) visits Champaign on Sunday followed by the Illini visiting Michigan (12-10) next Tuesday. Then it's all games against teams they've played before and only three of them have winning records.

Wisconsin (15-4) follows the Michigan game and will be looking to avenge the Illini breaking their 38-game home winning streak a couple of weeks ago. Don't bet on the Badgers getting even. Then it's at Penn State (7-14) and on the road against Iowa (15-5), which if Illinois is going to lose a game this year, this one's the most likely (although not likely).

Other than Wisconsin, the Hawkeyes stayed the closest to the Illini in Big 10 play, losing by a scant five points in Champagne. Illinois then has two home games against Northwestern (9-11) and Purdue (5-14), then finish on the road against Ohio State (15-7), whom the Illini beat by 19 earlier in the year.

In the event either of these teams makes it through the rest of the season unscathed, they'll likely take different paths to the Final Four. While Boston College might have a legitimate beef that they should be a number one seed in the tournament, it would be hard to argue against some other teams with losses that they shouldn't be top seeds as well. Plus, one has to take into account that the East is loaded with great teams like North Carolina, Duke, and Kentucky when deciding if BC should be a one-seed.

Illinois, on the other hand, will be a number one seed no matter what, even if they lose a game before the Big Dance. As weak as the west is right now, it wouldn't be too surprising if they were shifted to that region as the top seed. That would make room for Kansas to be the number one in the Midwest (or whatever its name is this year). North Carolina will probably be the top seed in the East and Kentucky tops in the South (again, the names have been changed to protect the tradition of the regions).

So, where does that leave Boston College? Probably as a two-seed in a region where the top team is ranked lower, such as the region where Kentucky is the one-seed. That's not to say that something drastic might happen between now and eight games in the future. In the event BC stays unbeaten and a couple of the heavyweights around them lose, like UNC or Wake Forest or Kentucky, then the Eagles just might grab a top seed somewhere.

That's the beauty of college basketball. Nobody knows exactly what will happen until Selection Sunday. But until then, it sure is fun to speculate.