The time of the tournament is approaching fast, which means several of the nation's finest programs are gearing up for postseason mode. Over the long haul, having a big name in a big-time conference increases those chances for getting in the field of 65.
Over the next few weeks, numerous journalists, experts, and regular peeps will make their guesses on who will make it into this year's hollowed bracket. But there may be a difference in the tone of conversation. Like the previous few seasons, the mid-major conferences are starting to field some tourney-worthy squads.
Of course, the seven big dogs (ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, C-USA, Pac 10, and SEC) will dominate the space reserved for a national championship run. By my calculations, these conferences will average five tournament spots apiece (35 total teams).
Utah's Salt Lake squad and Cinderella-no-more Gonzaga are mid-major locks for the dance. Add in the remaining 23 league tourney champs and the top spot in the Ivy League, you've got 61 pieces filled with parking space for four more party wagons. But will the occupants of these at-large spaces turn out to be big-dog SUVs or mid-size sedans? Nine teams give the smaller brother cause for hope.
George Washington (13-5, 5-3)
Sagarin #: 56, College RPI: 80The nation's darlings out of the gate, the Colonials got noticed after upsets of Maryland and Michigan State on back-to-back days in early December. After eight straight wins, a bump in the road came at West Virginia. Then, as GW was getting back on track, their balance took a hit.
Losses in three out of four games have clearly put this team on the fringes of getting an invite. Their upcoming schedule won't help that much, with the toughest tilts coming at Temple and Dayton. My prediction is they'll run out their last eight and get a couple tourney wins, making everything right with the world again.
Nevada (14-5, 7-2)
Sagarin #: 67, College RPI: 54Last year's tourney dark horse is still running strong without Kirk Snyder, Todd Okeson, or head coach Trent Johnson. Unfortunately, that didn't help the Wolfpack in their return game at Kansas (they got crushed). That leaves wins at Georgia and against UNLV as standout victories (sort of).
Reno's team has been tripped up at home by UTEP and Fresno State during the WAC season, but the blue and gray do get a second shot at both teams. The 'Pack also has a bracket-buster date with America East-leading Vermont. I think Nevada has a great shot to return to the Madness, granted they get to the conference tourney finals.
Pacific (16-2, 10-0)
Sagarin #: 39, College RPI: 24The Tigers were another West Coast team that surprised some folks in the '04 tournament. This season, Pacific is running through their schedule with steamroller force. Their only scratches came at Kansas and to San Francisco by three.
Even with the fairly small conference affiliation, the ratings systems above seem to like this squad. In the end, I don't think anybody (even Utah State) will stop this team from taking the conference tourney. Enough said.
Southern Illinois (16-5, 7-2)
Sagarin #: 33, College RPI: 16The Salukis have had a great run of NCAA tournament appearances over the last half-dozen years. The Pride of the MVC since the late '90s, SIU has gotten in the minds of basketball junkies again. Victories over UTEP and Vanderbilt helped them win one of the early-season Vegas tournaments.
The biggest flaw with this squad is the road. All five losses have come away from Carbondale. Unless the Salukis fall flat, their record and ratings should get them in, but road woes don't sit pretty with the selection folk. Wins at Northern Iowa, Illinois State, and Kent State could help alleviate that.
St. Mary's (CA) (19-5, 6-1)
Sagarin #: 52, College RPI: 34Gonzaga may be the recent bully in the WCC, but the Gaels have flexed quite a bit of muscle this season. St. Mary's has already taken down the 'Zags at home in conference. Outer league wins against Air Force and at Cal aren't shockingly great, but do provide some backbone.
With its remaining schedule, the Gaels could conceivably reach 24 or 25 wins before even hitting the league tournament. However, sheer number of belt notches doesn't provide them with a ticket to dance. Another win over Gonzaga on Thursday, however, might.
UTEP (17-4, 7-2)
Sagarin #: 45, College RPI: 57The other half of the WAC duo that threatens to return to the tourney, the Miners got an inside track by beating Nevada in Reno. UTEP, who also has a new coach this season, has wins over Arizona State and Princeton, as well as a close loss to Southern Illinois.
A WAC title for UTEP would go a long way to impressing the selection committee, but with half the season left, that's not so easy. A voyage to Honolulu, visits by Nevada and Fresno State, and a Buster game at Pacific will keep things interesting for the Miners. But again, make the league tourney finals, they should be fine.
Vermont (15-3, 10-0)
Sagarin #: 25, College RPI: 20The Catamounts are one darling that might be getting a little too much credit. Vermont did take Kansas to the edge in the season opener. But for a team whose biggest wins are at Northeastern, at Holy Cross, and against BU, the ranking seems high.
No worries, though. The maple boys are rolling through the America East so far. One big obstacle remains when the Catamounts go to Boston U. All they really need to do is go on the road and take down Nevada on Bracket Buster Day. That'll shut me up.
Western Michigan (14-6, 7-3)
Sagarin #: 44, College RPI: 41Basically, this team is the best chance for the MAC to get an at-large bid this year. The Broncos don't have a stellar record and haven't faced any top tier teams. But they are a solid squad, gaining wins in Blacksburg and Charleston early in the season.
A win against Northern Iowa in a couple of weeks could help their cause. However, an impressive run the end the Mid-American season is probably the best solution toward solving the at-large puzzle. The ratings may be solid (that word again), but I don't know if that will be enough against even the mediocre heavies.
Wichita State (16-3, 9-2)
Sagarin #: 32, College RPI: 18Wichita State possesses a highly-regarded team leading a difficult mid-major conference. Even though the Shockers have lost at home to Manhattan and at Indiana State (nothing you'd like to brag about), a solid schedule includes a victory over Southern Illinois.
The Shockers took a hit Tuesday night, falling at Creighton. However, if they get back to their winning ways on the road (games left at Illinois State, Miami (Ohio), and SIU), southeastern Kansas should be able to rejoice with their northern neighbors come selection Sunday.
March 13th, I only expect half of these teams to really be sweating. Vermont and Pacific should already be in with conference crowns, along with one of the MVC and WAC teams on this list. But as we learn in most years, there's always a sucker punch thrown in during the fight for a league championship.
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