Five Quick Hits
* Coup for the Packers landing Jim Bates as their new defensive coordinator.
* Nick Saban has to be pretty happy, getting Minnesota coordinator Scott Linehan to coach his offense in Miami. If only they had players to run it.
* If Duce Staley hadn't held out in 2003, he might be playing in Jacksonville this week.
* Rumor has it that Cleveland's interim head coach, Terry Robiskie, could be back with the club as Romeo Crennel's offensive coordinator next season. That would be a great way for Crennel to start building his staff.
* Johnny Carson was an American icon, probably the most popular man in the United States at the time he retired from "The Tonight Show." We'll miss you, Johnny.
Barring significant developments, I'll be off next week, but check in after the Super Bowl for my breakdown of the game and the third annual All-Loser Team, an all-star team made up entirely of players whose teams missed the playoffs. Happy Super Bowl Sunday!
Championship Game Roundups
Falcons at Eagles
The story of this game was the utter domination of Philadelphia's defense over Atlanta's offense. The Eagles took away Atlanta's running game early, and that put a stop to things. The most telling statistic from the game is Atlanta's third-down conversions: 2 out of 11. That's what happens when you have no passing game. As with Philadelphia's victory over the Vikings last week, even when the game was close, it always felt like the green and white were in control.
In the first quarter, the Falcons had 13 runs and 3 passes. By the second quarter, they were already getting away from the running game, with 7 rushes and 8 pass plays. By the fourth quarter, they were down to one run and 12 pass plays. Jim Johnson's defense is especially geared toward shutting down the passing game, and Atlanta never had a chance to win the game on Michael Vick's arm.
This game featured three signature moments, all among the most memorable of the postseason, and all in Philadelphia's favor: Dorsey Levens' first-quarter touchdown run, a lesson in perseverance; Donovan McNabb's mad scramble before completing a pass to Freddie Mitchell, a reminder that Vick isn't the only QB who can elude defenders; and Brian Dawkins' bone-jarring hit on Alge Crumpler, an intimidating message to Atlanta's receivers.
The Falcons lost in every phase of the game. The offense got slaughtered. McNabb (111.1 passer rating) and Brian Westbrook (six yards per carry) were effective against Atlanta's highly-regarded defense. Punter Chris Mohr had a terrible game. I don't know that there were any matchups the Eagles really dominated; they were just a little better across the board.
Patriots at Steelers
It would be easy to blame the rookie quarterback. It would also be understandable. Ben Roethlisberger showed this year that he can make big plays under pressure, but it's also clear that for now he's most comfortable and most effective as a game manager. Hand it off, hit the tight end on 3rd-and-6, that kind of thing. In that type of offense, three interceptions will sink you. When you look at the stat sheet, everything else was pretty equal.
If you want to break it down a little further, Tom Brady was 14-for-21 for 207 yards and 2 TDs. Forget the interceptions, and Big Ben was 14-for-21 for 226 yards and 2 TDs. Almost identical. Roethlisberger made some nice plays, but he also made mistakes that took his team out of the game. Give the Patriots an inch and they'll take a mile.
Turnovers and field position certainly help to explain how New England scored 41 points against the league's top-ranked defense, but there's necessarily more to it. For starters, and I've mentioned this before, New England's offense is better than it gets credit for. It's a balanced attack, capable of dominating with the run or pass. And as Charlie Weis reminded us on Sunday, it is totally unpredictable and utterly fearless.
Several playcalls seemed to defy not only conventional wisdom, but common sense. Weis is the most daring and original playcaller in the league; the gameplan he threw at the Steelers was one they never could have prepared for.
It bears mention that for the second game in a row, New England's offensive line was extremely impressive.
The Crystal Ball
Super Bowl XXXIX: Patriots vs. Eagles
Jacksonville, Florida
This is the matchup we've been hoping for all year: the best team in the AFC against the best team in the NFC.
New England enters the game with several substantial advantages. One is experience. Most of these guys have a ring or two already. They aren't going to let the magnitude of the game psyche them out. Another is mindset. For all their denials, the Eagles were under tremendous pressure last week. It was a colossal triumph for the organization to finally win an NFC Championship Game, and I imagine the emotional reserves are pretty dry at this point. Two weeks is a long time to refill the tank, but while the Patriots have never taken their eye off the prize, Philadelphia will have to contend with "just happy to be here" syndrome.
The Pats also have a huge coaching edge. Bill Belichick clearly is the best head coach in the NFL, and his coordinators are widely regarded as the best at their respective positions, as well. On the other side of the field, Andy Reid is a very good coach, while Brad Childress and Jim Johnson are excellent assistants. Weis against Johnson could be a battle for the ages. But Belichick versus Reid is no contest. Belichick is this generation's Vince Lombardi; Reid was badly outcoached in consecutive NFC Championship Game losses at home. Andy's had some trouble getting his team prepared for the big game.
For the Patriots to win, they'll need to balance their daring playcalls with a conservative approach to the game. If they don't give up the big play and don't commit any turnovers, the Pats win in a cinch. Ideally, New England will keep Donovan McNabb out of a rhythm and get him frustrated. McNabb is capable of taking over a game with his arm or his legs, but if Belichick and Crennel can limit his effectiveness, the Eagles will find points tough to come by. The Pats frequently dropped seven or eight men into coverage each of the last two weeks, and I think a similar strategy will work against Philadelphia.
Moving the ball against Johnson's defense is a trickier task. The Eagles' secondary is so good that it's tempting to say you blast Corey Dillon and Kevin Faulk all game to wear down Philly's defense at its weakest point. I don't think that would work, though, and I think the Patriots will be far more creative.
Jeremiah Trotter, the heart of Philadelphia's run defense, is mediocre in coverage and sometimes leaves the game on passing downs. The Pats use empty backfields more frequently and more effectively than any other team in the league, and I expect a lot of four- and five-receiver sets from New England. If Trotter stays in, they'll attack him with passes; if Trotter goes out, it's Faulk up the middle. The Patriots have had great success this postseason handing off to Faulk, their third-down back, when the defense expected passes.
For the Eagles to win, they'll need to break Brady's magic spell. When the Pats lose, it usually can be traced to Brady: in New England's four losses over the last two seasons, he has a combined passer rating of 55.0. When Brady throws at least two interceptions, the Patriots are 5-9; when he throws more than two, they're 0-6. If the Eagles can disrupt Brady with pressure and force him into a couple of turnovers, they'll put themselves in position to win.
Brady has to be Johnson's top priority, but the defense also needs to stop Corey Dillon. It doesn't have to shut him down completely, but if Dillon hits the century mark or averages six yards a carry (as he did in New England's rout of the Colts two weeks ago), the Eagles are toast.
On offense, it all comes back to McNabb. He's been the heart and soul of his team for five years, and he's finally taken them to the game's biggest stage. McNabb is capable of taking over a game, and he'll need to be in top form for Philadelphia to leave Jacksonville as winners. I don't expect Terrell Owens to have much impact (if he plays at all), so Westbrook remains the big-play guy.
Carolina hung with the Patriots in last year's Super Bowl thanks largely to three touchdowns of 30+ yards. Even the best defenses can't guarantee they won't give up a big play, and Westbrook is the kind of guy who's a threat every time he touches the ball. Philly's WR corps could come up big, too, of course, but if I'm Reid, I want Westbrook to get 25 touches on offense. I would probably have him do some returning, as well.
I believe New England's defense will force McNabb into some mistakes, and I don't think the Eagles can rattle Brady when the stakes are highest. A Philadelphia win wouldn't be shocking, but it would definitely be a surprise.
Patriots 27, Eagles 16
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