NFL Wildcard Weekend Roundup

Five Quick Hits

* Pretty sketchy that John Abraham skipped a playoff game after doctors cleared him to play. It's tough not to think that Abraham has prioritized his status in free agency over the good of his team.

* I'd say the odds that Ty Law plays for New England next year are about 50-50.

* Neither of my Super Bowl picks played this week, so my prediction is unchanged: Steelers over Eagles.

* Great Hall of Fame finalists this year. Off the top of my head, I like Harry Carson, Benny Friedman, Dan Marino, Art Monk, and Steve Young. The only ones I definitely wouldn't support are Richard Dent and L.C. Greenwood.

* Halftime of the Colts game: I call an old college roommate. "Are you watching this?" What a massacre.

Three wildcard teams (the Rams, Jets, and Vikings) advanced to the divisional round of this year's playoffs. History tells us that their chances of winning a second game this postseason are slim to none.

Since the NFL went to a 12-team playoff format, 80 wildcard teams have made the playoffs. Only six of those 80 have won more than one game in the postseason. Those six teams had a combined record of 66-30, including 34-14 in the second half of the season. The 1992 Bills tied for the best record in the AFC. The 1996 Jaguars closed the season with five straight wins. The 1997 Broncos and 2000 Ravens finished 12-4. The 1999 Titans went 13-3. Even the 1995 Colts, with a 9-7 record, won four of their last six before beating a fellow 9-7 (San Diego) and then knocking off Marty Schottenheimer's choking Chiefs in the divisional round of the playoffs.

None of this year's wildcard teams has that kind of résumé. Their combined record was 26-22, with an 11-13 mark down the stretch. These are second-tier teams, and they're going to have a rough time next weekend.

Wildcard Roundups

Rams at Seahawks

Saturday's playoff matchups produced two very exciting games, but only one of them was well-played. This was the other one. The Rams, playing against Seattle, looked like a real threat, but when they play Atlanta next week, the team's weaknesses will be painfully apparent. St. Louis went 3-0 against Seattle this season, but only 6-8 against everyone else. Even in the NFC, that's not Super Bowl material.

Seattle showed flashes of talent — defensive end Chike Okeafor had a great game — but for most of the game, the Rams simply looked better. Head coach Mike Martz approached this game with confidence bordering on bravado, and the Seahawks seemed oddly caught off-guard. By dropping six and seven defenders into coverage, Seattle held Marc Bulger to an 18-32 day (56%), well below Bulger's 65% average in 2004. But by rushing three or four and seldom blitzing, 'Hawks defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes gave the St. Louis QB time to throw downfield, and Bulger's 17.4 yards per completion easily exceeded his regular-season average of 12.3.

It was particularly puzzling that Rhodes held back his blitzers even after Bulger took a hard hit that appeared to at least temporarily affect his thinking process. You don't want to hurt anyone, but if you can force the guy into a quick decision, that's the sort of thing that turns a game around. Count me among those who think Rhodes completely mishandled his defense on Saturday.

Inconsistent officiating did little to help either team. Walt Coleman, one of the worst refs in the league, managed to get the call right on the replay review of Torry Holt's first-quarter TD, but it was all downhill from there. Several questionable calls went against Seattle's defense in key situations. Late in the fourth quarter, Seattle's Ken Hamlin made a very late hit on Shaun McDonald, but no flag was thrown.

The Rams got their playoff win and a convincing sweep over a division rival, but the Martz train ends next week. In Seattle, I believe Mike Holmgren will get another season as head coach, but if I were Paul Allen, I'd part ways with Holmgren. Seattle will be better with someone else, and some other team will be better with Holmgren. A fresh start will help everyone.

Jets at Chargers

In a game that featured both of the AP first-team all-pro RBs, neither team got its running game going. San Diego in particular struggled, with LaDainian Tomlinson averaging barely three yards per carry. The Chargers had so much trouble getting Tomlinson, their biggest weapon, into the open field that late in the game LT was essentially taking the "extended handoff" Bud Grant developed for Chuck Foreman in the 1970s. All nine of Tomlinson's receptions came in the second half or overtime.

With both defenses focused on stopping the run, QBs Chad Pennington and Drew Brees put up big numbers: a combined 54-75 with 598 yards, 4 TDs, and only 1 INT — about the same as Peyton Manning's first half against the Broncos. All four touchdowns were scored through the air, six players had at least 50 receiving yards, and Keenan McCardell made an incredible catch in the second quarter to put the game's first points on the board. Early in the third quarter, Pennington answered with as perfect a pass as you will ever see, a 47-yard TD to Santana Moss.

The deciding difference in this game came from the sidelines, not the field. I like Marty Schottenheimer and I was pulling for the Chargers, but Marty and his staff got outcoached. They particularly mishandled playcalling and clock management. Schottenheimer's teams are 4-5 at home in the postseason, and those are games you're supposed to win.

Broncos at Colts

The box score shows a 49-24 Indianapolis victory, but the real final score was 35-3. The Colts dominated the first half so thoroughly that the last two quarters mattered even less than the Week 17 game between these clubs.

When Manning has a blah first quarter and you're still down 14-0, it's not going to be a good day. Manning is getting all the accolades, but Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne made plays on their own to facilitate Indy's blowout win. In the second quarter, Manning found his rhythm and the Colts easily put the game away. Manning's gift is making everything look easy. He hit Wayne perfectly in stride, putting the receiver in a position to pick up yards after the catch.

The NFL went out of its way to give Indianapolis an edge, but the Colts never needed it. I don't have a problem with the large fine directed at Denver's John Lynch for his hit on Clark last week, but the league's emphatic insistence that Lynch and his teammates would be ejected for hitting the Indianapolis receivers struck many league observers as ridiculous and unfair. I have no doubt that the Colts would have dominated this game without any help from the NFL, but it's upsetting that the league went to such extreme measures to protect the brilliant Indianapolis offense.

Vikings at Packers

Last season, I went 9-2 in my postseason predictions. The year before, I was 8-3. So far this season, I'm 2-2.

The Vikings finished this season so poorly that it was hard to imagine Minnesota beating the Packers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. Minnesota, though, has potential. It's a good team on paper, but played with no heart for the last month or two of the season. The Vikings came into Green Bay fired up and at the top of their game, while the Packers came out flat and never really hit their stride.

The Packers underperformed in almost every facet of the game. Despite sacking Daunte Culpepper four times, Green Bay was unable to generate a consistent pass rush. Culpepper had 338 net yards and a 137.1 passer rating. Randy Moss, playing on a gimpy ankle, had two TD catches. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay averaged only 3.6 yards per carry and Brett Favre threw four interceptions. It didn't help that Pro Bowl WR Javon Walker missed the second half and CB Ahmad Carroll was the victim of two questionable penalty calls that gave the Vikings first downs, but Green Bay wasn't up to the task anyway.

I don't understand why Chris Berman and the FOX crew gave Favre a free pass for the stupid penalty he took at the end of the first half, tossing the ball to Walker from three yards beyond the line of scrimmage. If Favre had slid, Ryan Longwell's field goal attempt would have been 23 yards instead of 28, and that five-yard penalty might have been the difference on a close miss. Instead of criticizing Favre, though, sycophantic television announcers laughed and praised him for it.

The Crystal Ball

Jets at Steelers

Remember that opening paragraph about wildcard teams winning a second game? The 10-6 Jets closed the regular season with three losses in their last four games, and now they're going on the road against 15-1 Pittsburgh. No 15-1 team has ever failed to reach its conference championship game. In fact, the previous 15-win teams won their first playoff games by an average of more than two touchdowns. Luck and perseverance will get you only so far. The Steelers are probably the best team in the NFL, and they're not going to lose at home to the Jets.

Pittsburgh, unlike San Diego, can stuff Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan without leaving its secondary wide open. When these teams met in Week 14, Dick LeBeau's squad held Martin to three yards per carry and intercepted Pennington three times. Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley combined for 108 yards and 4.2 per attempt, but Plaxico Burress didn't play and Big Ben Roethlisberger had a rough outing. I don't see that happening again. I think the Steelers will be way too much for the Jets and win by double-digits.

Rams at Falcons

St. Louis finished the regular season 8-8 and limped into the playoffs with some help from a Philadelphia team that rested its starters against the Rams in Week 16. The Rams are 1-6 when they don't play in Seattle or St. Louis. The team's only road wins were against the Seahawks and 2-14 San Francisco. Against teams outside the NFC West, St. Louis is 3-7 with an 0-5 mark on the road. That includes embarrassing 20-point defeats against Buffalo and Green Bay, 0-6 Miami's first win, and a 17-point loss to the very Atlanta team the Rams face on Saturday.

When these teams met in Week 2, the Rams were held to 30 rushing yards on 15 carries, while Michael Vick alone ran for 109 and completed a season-high 73.7% of his passes. The Falcons were 11-3 before dropping two meaningless games at the end of the season. They're 7-1 at home.

Both of these teams are unpredictable, but it would be lunacy to predict a Rams win. My faith in Atlanta has been shaky all season, but the Rams may be the worst team ever to win a playoff game, and I can't see them making it two in a row. Atlanta's pass rush will pressure Bulger, and he'll have at least one turnover. Falcons RB Warrick Dunn has given the Rams fits for years, and Vick had his best game of the season against them. Falcons by 10.

Vikings at Eagles

What are the odds, do you think, that the Vikings can put together two great games in a row? Not so good? Minnesota came away from Green Bay with a convincing victory, but they got some help from the Packers. Donovan McNabb probably won't throw 4 INTs against Minnesota's 29th-ranked pass defense. Minnesota likely won't score 31 points against Philadelphia's second-ranked scoring defense. That defense, led by all-pro safety Brian Dawkins, sees McNabb every day in practice and probably won't allow Culpepper to run for 54 yards. The weaknesses Minnesota exploited against Green Bay this weekend don't exist in Philadelphia.

Three of Philadelphia's four starters in the secondary made the Pro Bowl, and the other, CB Sheldon Brown, isn't the kind of weak link Carroll proved to be against the Vikings. Run defense remains the weakest area of the Eagles' excellent defense, but Minnesota, the least run-oriented team in the NFL, is unlikely to take advantage of that.

We still haven't seen Philadelphia's offense without Terrell Owens, but it seems safe to say that versatile RB Brian Westbrook will play a key role. Westbrook gained over 700 yards both rushing and receiving, with an eye-popping 14 gains of 20 yards or more. Teams who devote too much attention to Westbrook, however, risk letting McNabb beat them — either throwing to his other targets or on the ground.

The Eagles match up really well against the Vikings, and they're the better team to begin with. This is Minnesota's third road game in a row, and it isn't going to be close: Philadelphia by 17.

Colts at Patriots

Easily the most compelling matchup of the weekend, maybe even the whole postseason. Manning and the Colts have struggled against New England, going 0-3 the last two seasons, including a decisive loss in last year's AFC Championship Game at a time when the Colts had looked red-hot.

The Patriots are always game, and they seem to step things up a notch for the postseason, but I don't think they're capable of beating Indianapolis without several serious mistakes from the Colts. With Ty Law on injured reserve and Richard Seymour's status in question, New England's defense simply doesn't have the resources to slow Manning down right now. We saw Manning torch Denver DB Roc Alexander time and again this weekend, and there's little reason to expect that New England's battered and depleted defensive backfield will do much better.

New England will keep the game close. The offense is better than it gets credit for, and I wouldn't be shocked if both teams score more than 30 points. The Colts didn't see much of Corey Dillon in the season opener (seems like years ago, doesn't it?), but they'll get a heavy dose of him on Sunday. Charlie Weis will attack Indy's aggressive defensive line with screens and draws and quick slants, and the Patriots will get their points. It just won't be enough. Colts by 10.