The holidays are winding down and the ritual of exchange and returns is beginning in malls across America. George Steinbrenner is once again watering his money tree, the hot stove is heating up, and fans and pundits are arguing the merits/drawbacks of the current BCS product.
2005 has certainly started off in a great direction.
As New Year's hangovers slowly retreat, the most important thing we can look forward to, though, are the NFL playoffs, finally set in stone after weeks of mediocrity at the lower rungs of both conferences.
It turns out we'll have a bus and a couple of guys named Bill, but not the Bills. There'll be the Pats and Peyton, but no Panthers this year. GB and St. L will be around, but probably no TO. Expect to see Jeremiah, Isaac, and Ahman; and enjoy the services of a Plummer, a Fisher, a Driver, and a Porter. And if all else fails, there's always Earthwind.
Yes, it is time to try to make sense of the chaos and do a little prognostication in search of this year's stallion. Muddle through the stats, records, histories, streaks, advantages, and injuries and saddle up.
NFC
Minnesota vs. Green Bay
Mike Tice and company once again started this year at full stride, and once again they have managed a fantastic collapse to finish the season. Losing four of their last five games, including the finale at Washington in a game that would have clinched a playoff berth, doesn't seem out of place for these Vikes. The temporary absence of Randy Moss, both physically and mentally, is perhaps the only legitimate reason for the slide.
Brett Favre and the Pack are moving in the opposite direction. After struggling early on (a streak capped by the atrocious Monday night game against the Titans), the Packers have put together another division-winning season. With a quarterback that doesn't quit (even when he's tossing up jump balls), a running back in Ahman Green that can dominate a defense in cold weather (when he's not fumbling), and the momentum of the second half, Green Bay is certainly one of the contenders in the toss-up NFC.
Don't expect this game to be as close as the previous two meetings.
Green Bay 24, Minnesota 13
St. Louis vs. Seattle
Seattle will try again against the Rams this weekend. Barring an actual stab in the back, Shaun Alexander should have a field day against a St. Louis team that ranked next to last in rush defense this season. In the previous two losses, Alexander mounted 150 and 176 yard efforts.
The 2004-2005 Rams are not the aerial juggernauts of the past, despite Marc Bulger's numbers. Four of their wins this season have come against weak teams and second strings (Arizona, San Fransisco, and Philadelphia, respectively), with the other two coming against the Seahawks.
If Mike Martz didn't look more like he belonged on a street corner with a rainbow wig and a "John 3:16" sign than on a sideline with a headset and clipboard, then maybe the Rams would have a chance.
Seattle 24, St. Louis 16
Green Bay vs. Atlanta
In 2002, Michael Vick marched the Falcons into Lambeau Field and won a game that not many thought he could. Simply put, the Packers don't lose home games in the playoffs. But they did. This time, Green Bay will take its game to Atlanta and its artificial turf, on which the Pack and Favre don't have the best record. Green Bay's porous defense probably won't be expected to contain Vick in his natural habitat, either. For ego, for retribution, for bragging rights — these are the reasons the Pack will win.
It's not the greatest logic, but it's logic nonetheless.
Green Bay 17, Atlanta 14
Seattle vs. Philadelphia
Seahawks against the Rams. An even matchup. The Seahawks against a rested Philadelphia team. Not even close. You can imagine that over the past few weeks, the McNabbs have been keeping the Eagles well fed with Campbell's chunky soup. I swear, that might be the only preparation needed for them to take care of Seattle.
Philadelphia 35, Seattle 12
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (NFC Championship Game)
1. It's doubtful that TO will be back for this game.
2. The shellacking from earlier in the season is probably very fresh in Green Bay's mind.
3. A perfect time for it to snow, and snow, and snow in Philadelphia.
4. Donovan McNabb and crew might not have the offensive flow after not playing for three weeks (the last two regular season games and the bye week.)
5. If history repeats itself, Philly may very well have a Viking-like collapse and make it another NFC Championship game disappointment.
6. The finest meats and cheeses of Wisconsin are an even match for the chunky soup, and perfect for a postgame feast.
Green Bay 24, Philadelphia 16
AFC
Denver vs. Indianapolis
This game will bear very little resemblance to last week's contest. Jake Plummer has to play near perfect to match Peyton Manning, who is out to prove there's more to this season than just breaking the touchdown record.
Even with knowledge of some of the routes and strategies the Colts might use against them, Denver's defense will be hard pressed to contain both Edgerrin James and Manning.
Indianapolis 35, Denver 17
New York Jets vs. San Diego
The Chargers are certainly one of the best stories this year. Marty Schottenheimer has led San Diego on a dramatic turn of fortunes, and Drew Brees is playing like the quarterback everyone thought he might be someday. Not to mention the effort of LaDainian Tomlinson, whose 1,335 yards this season makes it a little easier for Brees to attack through the air.
Chad Pennington and the Jets are not the team they were in Week 2, and that victory will be a distant memory after their loss in sunny California.
San Diego 31, New York 13
Indianapolis vs. New England
The defending Super Bowl champions will suit up and play the team they beat 27-24 in Week 1 of the 2004 season. The mystique of the streak is over now and the Pats' beat up secondary will have a tough time contending with the precision of Peyton.
49 touchdowns — that's nice. Manning and the Colts want what New England has, though, and that is a championship.
It's tough to bet against New England at home in the playoffs, but if there were ever a year when the Colts had a chance, it's this one. A defense led by Dwight Freeney and his 16 sacks just might give the offense the chance it needs to pull out a big postseason game.
Indianapolis 17, New England 13
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
The Steelers boast a rookie quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger that hasn't lost a professional game yet, a rejuvenated Jerome Bettis that is running like he's got something to prove, and a talented wide receiver trio in Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, and Antwaan Randle El. That, and a defense that is reminiscent of the Steel Curtain.
San Diego's season has been impressive, but by no means enough to pick them against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh 16, San Diego 6
Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh (AFC Championship Game)
1. I'm just saying, Big Ben hasn't lost a game yet. It's bound to happen.
2. Peyton has a couple of things to prove. First, he can win a Super Bowl. And second, he is better than the rookie sensation.
3. I'm from Cleveland, and I just can't pick the Steelers to win.
4. Mini-matchups galore. Peyton vs. Ben. Bettis vs. Edgerrin James. Ward, Randle El, and Burress vs. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.
5. The game will be decided in the last 60 seconds.
Indianapolis 20, Pittsburgh 17
Green Bay vs. Indianapolis (Super Bowl)
Yes, I know we're all excited about Paul McCartney playing at half-time. Oh, and there's the commercials, too. But more importantly, these two teams would certainly put on one hell of show.
Okay, it might not even be worth trying to justify who wins this game since this probably won't even be the matchup, I know this. But it's the matchup almost no one will pick, and it's the game I want to see. So, I'll leave it at this simple defense.
The Colts win after the Pack's emotional tank runs dry after a season of close calls.
Indianapolis 35, Green Bay 13
Whatever the outcomes, whatever the upsets or letdowns, the postseason will invariably keep us entertained and in front of the television or next to the radio, and give rise to a friendly debate or two.
But only one thing really matters, because there is little consolation for losing, as the namesake of the Super Bowl trophy would remind us.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."
January 7, 2005
Bill DeVilla:
It history, especially recent history has taught us anything, it is that the teams with the best defenses usually make it to the Super Bowl: Carolina, New England from last year, the Bucs the year before, the Ravens from a few years ago. Even when the Rams wons their Super Bowl, they had a stout defense. I know that Indy vs. the Pack is what we would love to see as fans, but when have we ever gotten what we wanted: lots of offense, porous defense. The Chargers will defeat Pittsburgh because they are complete and are not expected to win. Indy will beat New England, and the Chargers will get revenge on the road because they are the only team lately that has stymied Peyton and Co. It will be San Diego versus Atlanta, who is the only team in the NFC with a running game (league’s best) and defense. Of course, we could care less about the Chargers versus the Falcons, but when have we ever gotten what we wanted. The Chargers will be Super Bowl champs and L.T. will get his fanfare.
January 7, 2005
Vince Grzegorek:
San Diego is certainly looking like one of the more complete teams in the playoffs, and they showed in week 14 that they could play in horrendous weather by controlling the line of scrimmage on both ends (at Cleveland with a foot of snow and a single digit windchill), but I think the only team that does this better than them is the Steelers.
As for Atlanta, as comfortable as Vick is getting with the offensive scheme, he’s still not there all the way yet. If they lose to the Pack it will be in a shootout, and if they lose to Philadelphia (assuming they get that far), it’ll be because Philly’s defense decides to step up for once and not let the ground game kill them. Either way it should be fun to watch.
The AFC’s uncertain because there are three great teams, and the NFC’s a toss up because there are no great teams.
January 7, 2005
John Grafton:
I guess being from Cleveland you have to pick Indy…..LOL….get over it! Pitt has beaten everyone put up against them and still get no respect. They even beat Buffalo with the 2nd and 3rd teams. If you’re going to prdict in an intelligent manner you shouild leave your heart in “The city of burning rivers”.
January 7, 2005
Vince Grzegorek:
It’s not all a heart thing. I honestly think, all personal grudges aside, that Roethlisberger is due for a loss. Even though he’s had plenty of big game experience and beat two of the ‘best’ teams in the NFL this season, he’ll be facing a defense that finally has some teeth. That, and the Buffalo Bills, as charismatic as they have been, are not the Colts and Drew Bledsoe is not Peyton Manning.
January 7, 2005
J:
3. I’m from Cleveland, and I just can’t pick the Steelers to win.
That says it all. You go with what you want…not what you know will happen. Steelers will win it all and Big Ben will lead the way.
January 7, 2005
dylan chinander:
you are actually picking the pakcers in the superbowl the waqy their defense has played this year.
You’re nuts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I’ll agree with the colts
January 8, 2005
Mark Dubinsky:
Great Defenses win NFL championships. A great offensive game and special teams keeps you in the running, but at the end of the day, its the D that differentiates NFL teams today.
Not that Payton Manning is not a phenom. When the day comes that Colts’ Defense is equal to their offense, nobody will beat them. But that day in not today.
In terms of historical tendencies, something to keep in mind: Open air stadiums are very tough for domed home team to deal with in January (remember the NE snow bowl). Experienced open stadium bad weather teams tend to perform better in the playoffs.
On any given playoff game anything strange can happen. That said, the road to Jacksonville would appear to go through Pittsburgh or Foxboro. And given that, it would be hard to go with the rookie Ben at the helm (although he is a sensational rookie) over Tom Brady who seems to find a way to win when it really counts. Now with Cory Dillon running the ball for N.E., Brady is freed to make some pretty spectacular throws particularly on second downs.
But I did say earlier that the defense was the differentiator and the Pats secondary looks like a patchwork quilt without Ty Law or Tyrone Poole at either corner.
On paper, its Pittsburgh coming out of the AFC, but with Bill Belichick coaching the Pats you just never know. Too close to call for the AFC Championship. Injuries could very well be there deciding factor here.
I can’t see a competitive Superbowl with either the Steelers or the Pats in there for the AFC. I feel that no team in the NFC matches up well with them.
Let’s see where this goes. I am sure it will be a mighty interesting second season for the NFL.
January 8, 2005
Vince Grzegorek:
Well, in the coming month somebody will be vindicated, hopefully me. Although, I’m fully prepared to eat some crow if/when it comes to that.
January 8, 2005
Vince Grzegorek:
Officially 0-1.
January 9, 2005
Brad Oremland:
Indianapolis 17, New England 13 ??
I think it’s much more likely that BOTH teams will exceed 30 points than that they won’t combine to.
January 9, 2005
Bill Belichick:
I think that it is highly unlikely that my PATRIOTS will loose to such a team as the Indianapolis colts. Tony Dungy??? What a fool!
January 9, 2005
Greg Wyshynski:
Make that 0-2 after the San Diego game.
I enjoyed your column, but I think you would have done better to take a deeper look at the Jets/Chargers game. The Jets have one of the best front fours in the NFL, and all night were able to get away with rushing those linemen while keeping the LBs available to stop San Diego’s mid-range passing game to the TEs. As a Jets fan, I was certain they were going to win this game, even with the travel and the fact they hadn’t been sharp. Why? Two words: Marty Schottenheimer. Too conservative in the postseason, and as we all saw, can be his own worst enemy. That 15-yard penalty for arguing a correct call set up a score. in the OT, he waited until fourth down to kick the ball because he used third down to get the ball on the right hash. That’s just awful coaching. If it had been a botched snap instead of a miss, Marty’s head would have been on a spear this morning.
Congrats to anyone who had the common sense to take the Jets and the points against Marty Chokenheimer
January 11, 2005
david phillips:
I love to read what people have to say about the playoffs, not just this board, but even more from the so called “experts.” Most all have been wrong. At the begining of the season, the only info you could find on ESPN or any other sports show about the steelers, was how they would be fodder for the ravens in the division and how they would be lucky to win 6 games. My how those programs have changed thier tunes. Bandwagons are easy to jump on , however, people still want to dismiss the steelers for a variety of reasons. “The Patriots and Eagles were injured when they played them. They barely beat the Jets last time out, They don’t have a good passing game, they almost lost to Jacksonville, they have a rookie qb,” I could go on and on. The fact is most people have no clue what they are saying, because they are simply spewing out what they were fed from someone else. People fail to mention that the Steelers this season have played alot of thier games without thier starting qb, rb, wr, corner, offensive guard, and nose tackle. Add various injuries removing players from 1-2 games, and I will put the Steelers’ injury list against anyone in the league still playing. They didn’t just beat the Pats and Eagles, they destroyed them, both games were over by halftime. This “rookie qb” has outplayed many so called veterns throughout the year, and continues to play at a level at which all future”rookies” will be held to. They played not so well against the Jets due to not having Burress available to stretch the field and allowed the Jets to play run defense only, and when it counted most, the Jets couldn’t stop the Steelers from moving the ball. Fact is the Steelers still won, just like they did at Jacksonville, and just like they did for 15 games this season. I hope to continue reading how Indy or the Patriots will play in the superbowl. The jets come into Pittsburgh and face a team that hasn’t been this healthy since it buried the Eagles and Patriots. Can the Jets win, of course, (if they do, it won’t be because they are the better team) it’s the playoffs, funny things can happen and usually do, however it’s the good teams that can overcome those events and move on, which Pittsburgh has done all season. My prediction: I’m a Steeler fan what do you think I’m gonna say? The only team I can see beating Pittsburgh is Pittsburgh.
January 12, 2005
Micah:
Rams in the super bowl, I said it before they even beat the jets and the eagles in the regular season,…. three words, any given sunday!
January 13, 2005
Brodie:
you are retarded. the pats the jets beat the chargers. indy beat the broncs. the packs are our and clearly the super bowl will be the eagles and the pats with the pats taking it home 3 years in a row. trust me these next 2-3 years are going to be the year of the steel, pats and broncs. just watch and see.
January 19, 2005
Phil:
All PA Super Bowl with the Steelers winning their 5th title….
January 19, 2005
Bill Belichick:
See. what did i tell you under paid geeks, I told you that my PATRIOTS wouldnt loose. But i don’t know about these very lucky steelers. All I know is that BIG BEN has no chance against our AMAZING defence. Jerome Bettis… he’s a washed up has been. If we win which we prbably will, we will be facing the red hot Atlanta Falcons, and until then my boys will be doing some extra cardio exercise so that we can keep up with Michael Vick.
February 8, 2005
John:
Nice Predictions! I only see a couple of ones that you got right. Packers in the Super Bowl? hehe. Weren’t even in the game with the Vikings.
Try your predictions in something you have a clue in. girls volleyball?
john