Friday, January 7, 2005
NFL Playoff Predictions, From Start to Finish
The holidays are winding down and the ritual of exchange and returns is beginning in malls across America. George Steinbrenner is once again watering his money tree, the hot stove is heating up, and fans and pundits are arguing the merits/drawbacks of the current BCS product.
2005 has certainly started off in a great direction.
As New Year's hangovers slowly retreat, the most important thing we can look forward to, though, are the NFL playoffs, finally set in stone after weeks of mediocrity at the lower rungs of both conferences.
It turns out we'll have a bus and a couple of guys named Bill, but not the Bills. There'll be the Pats and Peyton, but no Panthers this year. GB and St. L will be around, but probably no TO. Expect to see Jeremiah, Isaac, and Ahman; and enjoy the services of a Plummer, a Fisher, a Driver, and a Porter. And if all else fails, there's always Earthwind.
Yes, it is time to try to make sense of the chaos and do a little prognostication in search of this year's stallion. Muddle through the stats, records, histories, streaks, advantages, and injuries and saddle up.
NFC
Minnesota vs. Green Bay
Mike Tice and company once again started this year at full stride, and once again they have managed a fantastic collapse to finish the season. Losing four of their last five games, including the finale at Washington in a game that would have clinched a playoff berth, doesn't seem out of place for these Vikes. The temporary absence of Randy Moss, both physically and mentally, is perhaps the only legitimate reason for the slide.
Brett Favre and the Pack are moving in the opposite direction. After struggling early on (a streak capped by the atrocious Monday night game against the Titans), the Packers have put together another division-winning season. With a quarterback that doesn't quit (even when he's tossing up jump balls), a running back in Ahman Green that can dominate a defense in cold weather (when he's not fumbling), and the momentum of the second half, Green Bay is certainly one of the contenders in the toss-up NFC.
Don't expect this game to be as close as the previous two meetings.
Green Bay 24, Minnesota 13
St. Louis vs. Seattle
Seattle will try again against the Rams this weekend. Barring an actual stab in the back, Shaun Alexander should have a field day against a St. Louis team that ranked next to last in rush defense this season. In the previous two losses, Alexander mounted 150 and 176 yard efforts.
The 2004-2005 Rams are not the aerial juggernauts of the past, despite Marc Bulger's numbers. Four of their wins this season have come against weak teams and second strings (Arizona, San Fransisco, and Philadelphia, respectively), with the other two coming against the Seahawks.
If Mike Martz didn't look more like he belonged on a street corner with a rainbow wig and a "John 3:16" sign than on a sideline with a headset and clipboard, then maybe the Rams would have a chance.
Seattle 24, St. Louis 16
Green Bay vs. Atlanta
In 2002, Michael Vick marched the Falcons into Lambeau Field and won a game that not many thought he could. Simply put, the Packers don't lose home games in the playoffs. But they did. This time, Green Bay will take its game to Atlanta and its artificial turf, on which the Pack and Favre don't have the best record. Green Bay's porous defense probably won't be expected to contain Vick in his natural habitat, either. For ego, for retribution, for bragging rights — these are the reasons the Pack will win.
It's not the greatest logic, but it's logic nonetheless.
Green Bay 17, Atlanta 14
Seattle vs. Philadelphia
Seahawks against the Rams. An even matchup. The Seahawks against a rested Philadelphia team. Not even close. You can imagine that over the past few weeks, the McNabbs have been keeping the Eagles well fed with Campbell's chunky soup. I swear, that might be the only preparation needed for them to take care of Seattle.
Philadelphia 35, Seattle 12
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (NFC Championship Game)
1. It's doubtful that TO will be back for this game.
2. The shellacking from earlier in the season is probably very fresh in Green Bay's mind.
3. A perfect time for it to snow, and snow, and snow in Philadelphia.
4. Donovan McNabb and crew might not have the offensive flow after not playing for three weeks (the last two regular season games and the bye week.)
5. If history repeats itself, Philly may very well have a Viking-like collapse and make it another NFC Championship game disappointment.
6. The finest meats and cheeses of Wisconsin are an even match for the chunky soup, and perfect for a postgame feast.
Green Bay 24, Philadelphia 16
AFC
Denver vs. Indianapolis
This game will bear very little resemblance to last week's contest. Jake Plummer has to play near perfect to match Peyton Manning, who is out to prove there's more to this season than just breaking the touchdown record.
Even with knowledge of some of the routes and strategies the Colts might use against them, Denver's defense will be hard pressed to contain both Edgerrin James and Manning.
Indianapolis 35, Denver 17
New York Jets vs. San Diego
The Chargers are certainly one of the best stories this year. Marty Schottenheimer has led San Diego on a dramatic turn of fortunes, and Drew Brees is playing like the quarterback everyone thought he might be someday. Not to mention the effort of LaDainian Tomlinson, whose 1,335 yards this season makes it a little easier for Brees to attack through the air.
Chad Pennington and the Jets are not the team they were in Week 2, and that victory will be a distant memory after their loss in sunny California.
San Diego 31, New York 13
Indianapolis vs. New England
The defending Super Bowl champions will suit up and play the team they beat 27-24 in Week 1 of the 2004 season. The mystique of the streak is over now and the Pats' beat up secondary will have a tough time contending with the precision of Peyton.
49 touchdowns — that's nice. Manning and the Colts want what New England has, though, and that is a championship.
It's tough to bet against New England at home in the playoffs, but if there were ever a year when the Colts had a chance, it's this one. A defense led by Dwight Freeney and his 16 sacks just might give the offense the chance it needs to pull out a big postseason game.
Indianapolis 17, New England 13
San Diego vs. Pittsburgh
The Steelers boast a rookie quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger that hasn't lost a professional game yet, a rejuvenated Jerome Bettis that is running like he's got something to prove, and a talented wide receiver trio in Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress, and Antwaan Randle El. That, and a defense that is reminiscent of the Steel Curtain.
San Diego's season has been impressive, but by no means enough to pick them against the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh 16, San Diego 6
Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh (AFC Championship Game)
1. I'm just saying, Big Ben hasn't lost a game yet. It's bound to happen.
2. Peyton has a couple of things to prove. First, he can win a Super Bowl. And second, he is better than the rookie sensation.
3. I'm from Cleveland, and I just can't pick the Steelers to win.
4. Mini-matchups galore. Peyton vs. Ben. Bettis vs. Edgerrin James. Ward, Randle El, and Burress vs. Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, and Brandon Stokley.
5. The game will be decided in the last 60 seconds.
Indianapolis 20, Pittsburgh 17
Green Bay vs. Indianapolis (Super Bowl)
Yes, I know we're all excited about Paul McCartney playing at half-time. Oh, and there's the commercials, too. But more importantly, these two teams would certainly put on one hell of show.
Okay, it might not even be worth trying to justify who wins this game since this probably won't even be the matchup, I know this. But it's the matchup almost no one will pick, and it's the game I want to see. So, I'll leave it at this simple defense.
The Colts win after the Pack's emotional tank runs dry after a season of close calls.
Indianapolis 35, Green Bay 13
Whatever the outcomes, whatever the upsets or letdowns, the postseason will invariably keep us entertained and in front of the television or next to the radio, and give rise to a friendly debate or two.
But only one thing really matters, because there is little consolation for losing, as the namesake of the Super Bowl trophy would remind us.
"Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."