Tick, tock, tick, tock...
I'm fairly certain that Gwen Stefani's catchy new single, "What You Waiting For?" is not directed at Billy Beane, but one does have to wonder, what exactly are the A's waiting for?
As recurring as the four words that title the song, Oakland Athletics management has, once again, shipped off two of their prime possessions for aspirations down the road.
Well, that is the Moneyball approach, isn't it? Buy low, sell high? As managers who follow this tactic scour the depths of baseball in search of value, when will they realize that this sort of approach will never bear fruit?
The Athletics are constantly building for tomorrow. For them, the key is to stockpile for the future. They conserve water, stash canned food, and recruit prospects like its December 31st 1999 -- but what are the A's waiting for?
When does tomorrow become today?
After their recent trades of frontline starters Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson, it's apparent that day never dawns in Oakland.
It all begins with a juicy outlook. A first-round pick is touted with potential and is heavily praised. Then he's slowly cured as his confidence progresses. Once he's ready for the big leagues, his role is gradually incremented until he's able to contribute to the A's chase for another American League Division Series defeat.
After years of time and effort, the prospect starts to climax. If he disappoints, he becomes affordable. If he transcends expectations, he'll likely play elsewhere next season.
And that's the constant theme with this approach. They are not constructing a winner; they are but merely a farm team of developmental talent.
Let's evaluate their most recent trade: Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder, currently two of baseball's best pitchers, swapped for a slew of pitching prospects that are expected to be just as successful in the future. In other words, the A's are trading gold for what they hope will be more gold roughly one to three years from now.
For starters, there are no guarantees with baseball prospects. It's like buying Stefani's new album and expecting hopping hits from play to stop. Some athletes meet the lofty benchmarks while others ... go on to play for the Royals.
Second of all, since the Athletics let their big guns slip away right now, why would they re-sign any of their young slingers when the time is right and they do present their pinnacle -- if they reach their pinnacle?
Their just future trade bait in the waiting.
In the past three years, the Athletics have cut ties with Johnny Damon, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, and Ramon Hernandez. Four of the best performers at their respective positions (yes, I know about Giambi's steroids, but at the time, he was an MVP). Then there's the rotation restructuring as Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, Jason Isringhausen, and Keith Foulke, all premier pitchers, now dress for other teams.
The franchise clings to the hope that frugal spending results in a Cinderella team that arduously produces a postseason appearance.
Meanwhile, the fans that perennially purchase new jerseys of the freshest budding star each season, also perennially wave goodbye to some other ace who they've drawn affinity to.
The whole process grows tiresome as Moneyball in its purest fashion will never win.
And to think, some of the basement bargains that the A's have plucked would serve as a pleasant complement to the rosters this team could have boasted.
But to the conservative contenders, Gwen's lyrics, "Take a chance, you stupid ho" and, "Take a chance, 'cause you might grow" do inspire.
Love, Angel, Music, Baby, and the Art of Winning an Unfair Game mix like Mondays and me.
"Anyone can do any amount of work provided it isn't the work he's supposed to be doing at the moment." - Robert Benchley
December 20, 2004
William Geoghegan:
I agree that the approach doesn’t really work, but Billy Beane is doing what he feels he has to do because of the limited resources made available to him by the Oakland ownership. I’m sure that if the organization had the money to do what teams like the Yankees do, it would abandon the tendency to be frugal.