The Best Team in the AFC?

Here is an intriguing question: who is the best team in the NFL? With three teams at 11-1, that is not an easy question. Those of you who have been reading me for awhile might be a little suspicious. Since I am a Steelers fan, I am going to come to the conclusion that it is the Steelers, right? Well, to be fair, the Steelers are 11-1 and have beaten the other two 11-1 teams, but let's break this down in more detail.

For now, let's focus on the AFC since that is clearly the dominant league. And let's consider the division leaders: Steelers, Patriots, Colts, and Chargers. Breaking it down by offense, defense, and special teams should give us an idea of who is the best. Here are my thoughts.

Offense

I think the Colts are clearly at the top in this category. Manning is on fire and Edgerrin "The Edge" James isn't too shabby, either. They have Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, plus two solid receiving tight ends; and James can catch the ball out of the backfield. That is a dangerous passing attack that is hard for defenses to matchup against. Their lowest point total of the year has been 24.

After the Colts, it is a tough call. The Patriots probably take second because of Tom Brady. Having a Super Bowl MVP at the helm never hurts. When they are healthy, the Patriots have a strong running game with Dillon and a dangerous passing game with David Givens, David Patton, and Deion Branch. The last few weeks, the Pats looked like they could out-physical you and go deep. Of course, playing the Browns will do that to you.

The Steelers' offense has struggled of late, but when they are healthy, they have the same type of one-two punch as the Patriots. But what they having been able to do is grab the lead and then pound you with Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis. This forces teams to try and stop the run. If teams bring their safeties up, however -- or if they rely on the blitz -- Ben Rothlisberger has the mobility and athleticism to make plays downfield.

The injury to Plaxico Burress has hurt them in this area because he was Ben's deep target. With Plax back in the lineup (they should have him back for the playoffs), teams will have to make the difficult decision whether they want to stop the run and risk the big play or blitz and hope for the best. Hines Ward's production has been way down the last couple of weeks, but he is still a tough-as-nails receiver and tends to make big plays when they need them. Last week against a tough Jaguar defense, Pittsburgh (and Rothlisberger) proved they can move the ball when the game is on the line.

San Diego doesn't get much credit outside of the West Coast, but they are putting together a fine season. Drew Brees is living up to the potential he showed at Purdue and Antonio Gates is having a monster season. Throw in LaDainian Tomlinson and they have some weapons, too. Of course, the AFC West isn't exactly famous for its smothering defenses this year, but still give Marty Schottenheimer credit he got the offense on track.

The wildcard in all of this (not the wildcard as these are division leaders) is homefield advantage. The Colts play in a dome and rely on speed. Can you honestly tell me they can run up 40 points Foxboro or Pittsburgh in January? It doesn't take genius to figure out that the Colts might have some trouble on the road. They also are two games behind the Steelers and Patriots for the best record in the AFC. Their last game is in Denver, so we might get a look at how they play on the road with a lot on the line.

I think Pittsburgh and New England need homefield advantage against the Colts. Neither team's secondaries are likely to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts in Indy. These last few games will determine that, and tell us a lot about how good their respective offenses are going into the playoffs. Right now, I give the Colts the edge with everybody else basically tied.

Defense

Clearly, this is not the side of the ball where the Colts excel. Sure, their defense has shown signs of improvement, but they have been giving up over 21 points a game on average. No, I think this battle is between the Steelers and the Patriots (the Chargers are at 20 points per game), who average around 15.

I am biased, but I think the Steelers nudge out the Pats on this one. They are a little tougher, especially against the run. The Steelers are only allowing an average of 77 yards a game while the Pats are giving up around 100 (surprisingly, the Chargers are only giving up 79; the Colts a healthy 118). Big-time wins against the Patriots and the Eagles revealed how tough this defense can be.

The last few weeks, the defense has had to bail out a struggling offense a little bit. Not having a let down is impressive. But the Patriots are tough, too. They are cagey and they don't often give up the big play. This is again an area where homefield advantage might be the tipping point.

Special Teams

This used to be an area where Pittsburgh struggled (see two years ago against New England), but now it is an advantage. Sure, Adam Vinatieri and Mike Vanderjagt are great kickers and Jeff Reed is merely steady, but Antwaan Randel El is a real threat on punt returns and the coverage teams have really improved. Tim Dwight and Eric Parker for the Chargers are also solid return men.

All in all, I don't see a big gap between any of these teams in this area, but if Randel El continues his hot streak, he could be a factor. But if I had to pick a kicker for a game winner outside, Vinatieri is the man.

The Best?

So, after all of this analysis, who is the best? As I hope the above has made clear, and that is a tough question. Playing at home, I think the Colts would be a very tough team to beat. But I also don't think the Colts will get homefield advantage. Head-to-head, the Steelers beat the Patriots, but that was without Corey Dillon. The Steelers offense has struggled, but that was without Plaxico and against a couple of tough defenses.

I think these teams are remarkably balanced, but I think the Patriots deserve the edge. They are the champs until someone knocks them out (and in the playoffs when it counts). They have a seasoned QB, great coaches, and they have looked very good the last few weeks.

I think the Steelers are a very good football team and with homefield advantage, could very well make it to the Super Bowl. But with a rookie QB and an offense that can struggle, I think they have to prove it when it counts. If the Steelers can win three out of their next four games, then I will be ready to cede them at the top. Right now, I think the Patriots are the best team in the AFC and likely in the NFL.

Next time, I will tackle the NFC.

Comments and Conversation

January 3, 2005

Paula:

Hi Kevin,

Steelers fan too! Tough call in the AFC. Pats have to have their props but, the showed vulnerability this year. They have a diabolical head coach mastermind and have won games in the “zone” with breaking a sweat but, the zone now has cracks, courtesy of Pittsburgh and Miami. The Steelers have finally coupled a pounding run defense with a complimentary pass defense. They play ball control as always and have a punishing ground game accented by an acrobatic passing attack that has masterfully kept the rookie within his limits while he has also managed to stave of the blitz, remain agile and instill leadership. Weakness: their games are decided in the fourth quarter and that is always iffy plus, the rookie sensation could always go bust.

The Colts go against the grain of traditional contenders with their power embedded in their offense. They could waiver for three quarters and still explode offensively with a record setting offense.

And then there are the Chargers, whiich I think of as the submarines. The unheralded guys who have quietly put together every aspect of their game, except for on one Sunday, special teams.

So here is my prediction: fundamental football will hold true and the Colts will not be able to compensate offensively. They overpower Denver but New England puts the screws to them and shuts them down.

San Diego has any easy time with the Jets as Pennington flounders.

This leaves San Diego in Pittsburgh. This is another tough call. San Diego is a well rounded team. Twice in recent history a lackluster Charger team has come into Pittsburgh and unseated the favored team. In the past the demeanor of the Steelers was one of wondering if they were truly as good as their record showed. This year however, the Steelers have showed signs of being a team that played in the moment and carved their destiny with each play.

Meanwhile, the Colts dispatch Denver. Denver at their highest level of play proved to be a team that could make it to the playoffs while the Colts proved themselves to have one of the most throttling offenses to ever take the field. The Colts do the necessary job on the other side of the ball and the O does the rest.

On the other half, Belichick unhindges the Colts O and the Pats precision execution in more categories thinking about running the ball better and beefing up the defense for next year.

So then New England goes to Pittsburgh. Belichick pulled the plug on the Steelers a few years back. But now Cowher has had time to catch up (spelt “ketchup” at Heinz Field). No more magic. The Pats are faced with trying to restore the vigor that posessed them (an no one else) in thier last march to superdom. They want to win it in the Belichick zone, a game that relys on strategy and not dearth. Going back into Heinz Field where they saw their winning streak snap the players will look for something new to smite to their foe but, in the Belichick system, all they will be offered is a new scheme, a confidence that relys on strategy more than brute. But Pittsburgh will strike again right back at the heart of this weakness. While their talent will parallel them, their zeal will topple them. Pittsburgh is reaching for the sky while the Pats are trying to repeat a past performance. The home crowd and the undeniable thirst for something more will drive the new Steelers to make their mark in the new history of the Steelers, after 25 years.

The Steelers will face the Eagles in the Super Bowl, two teams that once joined forces and were known as the Steagles in the WWII days. The score will stay reasonable but the advantage throughout will go to the Steelers and they will earn their 5th Super Bowl Crown and restore the glory that came to their town a quarter of a century ago…and everybody said…”Amen!”

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