Saturday, December 11, 2004
The Best Team in the AFC?
Here is an intriguing question: who is the best team in the NFL? With three teams at 11-1, that is not an easy question. Those of you who have been reading me for awhile might be a little suspicious. Since I am a Steelers fan, I am going to come to the conclusion that it is the Steelers, right? Well, to be fair, the Steelers are 11-1 and have beaten the other two 11-1 teams, but let's break this down in more detail.
For now, let's focus on the AFC since that is clearly the dominant league. And let's consider the division leaders: Steelers, Patriots, Colts, and Chargers. Breaking it down by offense, defense, and special teams should give us an idea of who is the best. Here are my thoughts.
Offense
I think the Colts are clearly at the top in this category. Manning is on fire and Edgerrin "The Edge" James isn't too shabby, either. They have Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley, plus two solid receiving tight ends; and James can catch the ball out of the backfield. That is a dangerous passing attack that is hard for defenses to matchup against. Their lowest point total of the year has been 24.
After the Colts, it is a tough call. The Patriots probably take second because of Tom Brady. Having a Super Bowl MVP at the helm never hurts. When they are healthy, the Patriots have a strong running game with Dillon and a dangerous passing game with David Givens, David Patton, and Deion Branch. The last few weeks, the Pats looked like they could out-physical you and go deep. Of course, playing the Browns will do that to you.
The Steelers' offense has struggled of late, but when they are healthy, they have the same type of one-two punch as the Patriots. But what they having been able to do is grab the lead and then pound you with Duce Staley and Jerome Bettis. This forces teams to try and stop the run. If teams bring their safeties up, however -- or if they rely on the blitz -- Ben Rothlisberger has the mobility and athleticism to make plays downfield.
The injury to Plaxico Burress has hurt them in this area because he was Ben's deep target. With Plax back in the lineup (they should have him back for the playoffs), teams will have to make the difficult decision whether they want to stop the run and risk the big play or blitz and hope for the best. Hines Ward's production has been way down the last couple of weeks, but he is still a tough-as-nails receiver and tends to make big plays when they need them. Last week against a tough Jaguar defense, Pittsburgh (and Rothlisberger) proved they can move the ball when the game is on the line.
San Diego doesn't get much credit outside of the West Coast, but they are putting together a fine season. Drew Brees is living up to the potential he showed at Purdue and Antonio Gates is having a monster season. Throw in LaDainian Tomlinson and they have some weapons, too. Of course, the AFC West isn't exactly famous for its smothering defenses this year, but still give Marty Schottenheimer credit he got the offense on track.
The wildcard in all of this (not the wildcard as these are division leaders) is homefield advantage. The Colts play in a dome and rely on speed. Can you honestly tell me they can run up 40 points Foxboro or Pittsburgh in January? It doesn't take genius to figure out that the Colts might have some trouble on the road. They also are two games behind the Steelers and Patriots for the best record in the AFC. Their last game is in Denver, so we might get a look at how they play on the road with a lot on the line.
I think Pittsburgh and New England need homefield advantage against the Colts. Neither team's secondaries are likely to stop Peyton Manning and the Colts in Indy. These last few games will determine that, and tell us a lot about how good their respective offenses are going into the playoffs. Right now, I give the Colts the edge with everybody else basically tied.
Defense
Clearly, this is not the side of the ball where the Colts excel. Sure, their defense has shown signs of improvement, but they have been giving up over 21 points a game on average. No, I think this battle is between the Steelers and the Patriots (the Chargers are at 20 points per game), who average around 15.
I am biased, but I think the Steelers nudge out the Pats on this one. They are a little tougher, especially against the run. The Steelers are only allowing an average of 77 yards a game while the Pats are giving up around 100 (surprisingly, the Chargers are only giving up 79; the Colts a healthy 118). Big-time wins against the Patriots and the Eagles revealed how tough this defense can be.
The last few weeks, the defense has had to bail out a struggling offense a little bit. Not having a let down is impressive. But the Patriots are tough, too. They are cagey and they don't often give up the big play. This is again an area where homefield advantage might be the tipping point.
Special Teams
This used to be an area where Pittsburgh struggled (see two years ago against New England), but now it is an advantage. Sure, Adam Vinatieri and Mike Vanderjagt are great kickers and Jeff Reed is merely steady, but Antwaan Randel El is a real threat on punt returns and the coverage teams have really improved. Tim Dwight and Eric Parker for the Chargers are also solid return men.
All in all, I don't see a big gap between any of these teams in this area, but if Randel El continues his hot streak, he could be a factor. But if I had to pick a kicker for a game winner outside, Vinatieri is the man.
The Best?
So, after all of this analysis, who is the best? As I hope the above has made clear, and that is a tough question. Playing at home, I think the Colts would be a very tough team to beat. But I also don't think the Colts will get homefield advantage. Head-to-head, the Steelers beat the Patriots, but that was without Corey Dillon. The Steelers offense has struggled, but that was without Plaxico and against a couple of tough defenses.
I think these teams are remarkably balanced, but I think the Patriots deserve the edge. They are the champs until someone knocks them out (and in the playoffs when it counts). They have a seasoned QB, great coaches, and they have looked very good the last few weeks.
I think the Steelers are a very good football team and with homefield advantage, could very well make it to the Super Bowl. But with a rookie QB and an offense that can struggle, I think they have to prove it when it counts. If the Steelers can win three out of their next four games, then I will be ready to cede them at the top. Right now, I think the Patriots are the best team in the AFC and likely in the NFL.
Next time, I will tackle the NFC.