Two weeks ago, there were 14 undefeated teams in college football. Now there is half that, and rest assured that upsets will happen, and there won't be the logjam at the top that all BCS naysayers like me hope for.
But it shouldn't be too much to ask for two or three teams to finish undefeated. How do they break down?
USC
Offense: If Matt Leinart stays at USC for four years, he will leave as the most legendary college quarterback since Peyton Manning, and maybe before. USC just clones weapons like Reggie Bush and LenDale White. Simply the best offense in the nation.
Defense: It is true that they can give up some points occasionally, but you have to have a fine offense to accomplish that, and they're getting better by the week, pitching a near-shutout against high-powered Arizona State two weeks ago and shutting out Washington last week.
Schedule: Their big test was facing Stanford, Cal, and Arizona State back-to-back-to-back, and they passed with flying colors. If they try to sleepwalk at Washington State, Oregon State, or UCLA, it may be a close game like Stanford was, but that's about the best there opponents can hope for.
Chance of finishing undefeated: 85%
Auburn
Offense: Leading the SEC in points per game. Does anyone remember last year, when they couldn't score at all their first three games? Great balance between the run and the pass.
Defense: Second in the nation in fewest points per game allowed. In short, this is the team they were supposed be last year, dominant on both sides of the ball.
Schedule: This is where they get placed behind USC. This Saturday against Mississippi is their last breather. Georgia at home will be tough, and the Iron Bowl is in Tuscaloosa this year, Alabama's improving, and this is a throw-out-the-records kind of rivalry anyway. Then, there's the SEC Championship game. No easy pieces.
Chance of finishing undefeated: 50%
Oklahoma
Offense: As great has Adrian Peterson has been, and as steady as Jason White has been, the word that better describes this offense is "effective" rather than "explosive." Last year, they just wasted everyone. Now they only beat them.
Defense: Their bread-and-butter is the way they stop the run, and the defense has to feel buoyed by the announcement that Bob Stoops will not entertain offers from Florida. A good passing team can give them problems. Even Bowling Green put 24 points on them.
Schedule: It boils down to the next two weeks on the road, arguably against the best remaining two teams in the Big 12. Oklahoma State has struggled lately, but it's another rivalry game, and then there's Texas A&M, who handed Oklahoma State their first loss, in Stillwater. If they win those two, they will cruise to an undefeated season.
Chance of finishing undefeated: 50%
Wisconsin
Offense: What offense? Who needs offense? Actually, Anthony Davis is a fine running back, but we all know this team thrives on winning games 13-7 and such.
Defense: Only the best in the nation, in terms of points per game. Keeping Erasmus James healthy will keep them that way, but even without him, any team coming into Madison knows that every possession is precious and probably futile.
Schedule: Well, Iowa in Iowa City is the only real test left, but the Big 10 being the Big 10, Wisconsin is the team most likely to be picked off by a team you would never expect to do it (that would mean either Minnesota or Michigan State).
Chance of finishing undefeated: 45%
Miami (FL)
Offense: They get the job done to be sure, but not only is Brock Berlin having a hard time quieting his critics, but that explosive tailback the Hurricanes seem to always have is not present this year. Virginia is the offensive power of the ACC.
Defense: Statistically, Virginia has them here, too, in the ACC, as does Florida State. Nothing special, nothing more to say about it.
Schedule: If Virginia doesn't trip them up in Charlottesville, Virginia Tech may in Coral Gables. Other than that, no problems.
Chance of finishing undefeated: 40%
Utah
Offense: Quarterback Alex Smith has thrown 15 touchdowns and only two picks. They have four running backs that average at least 5 yards per carry. They haven't scored fewer than 23 points all year. Urban Meyer will be the coach of a storied, elite school very soon.
Defense: Not bad, nothing to write home about. More than half of their opponents have scored at least 21 on them, but they did shut down Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah State.
Schedule: Their two toughest remaining opponents -- BYU and Colorado State -- both come to Salt Lake City. Not that they are really good enough to be Utah anyway. It's amusing that they are ranked higher in the BCS, which is supposed to be biased against the non-elite conferences, than they are in each human poll, which is supposed to be more sympathetic to mid-majors.
Chance of finishing undefeated: 80%
Boise State
Offense: They beat their opponents by outscoring them. Quarterback Jared Zabransky sometimes looks like a surefire NFL hit. Lee Marks is an unknown, underrated running back.
Defense: The worst unit of any team on this list. Thanks to a porous defense, they nearly got picked off by lowly Tulsa, with the Broncos prevailing 45-42. They also nearly lost games against BYU and UTEP.
Schedule: The only teams they have left on the road are even worse than Tulsa, and they are a lot more stout at home. Louisiana Tech comes to visit November 20th, representing the best hope anyone has of beating them.
Chance of finishing undefeated: 60%
A national championship game between USC and Utah is not out of the question, and if it happens, the Utes will keep it close.
Quick Picks of the Week, still with more picks, less explainin':
Kansas (-4) over IOWA STATE
Army (-2 1/2) over EAST CAROLINA
NORTH CAROLINA (+22) over Miami (FL)
Green Bay (-2) over WASHINGTON
NEW YORK JETS (-6 1/2) over Miami
Last edition: 2-3
Slant Pattern Top-25
1. USC
2. Auburn
3. Oklahoma
4. Wisconsin
5. Miami
6. Utah
7. Cal
8. Florida State
9. Georgia
10. Virginia
11. Texas A&M
12. Michigan
13. Louisville
14. West Virginia
15. Boise State
16. Iowa
17. Texas
18. Tennessee
19. Virginia Tech
20. Arizona State
21. Oklahoma State
22. Purdue
23. Southern Miss
24. LSU
25. Under Armor (they must protect this house!)
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