Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats were a major disappointment last year, due to some unselfish play and a lack of defensive commitment. They finished third in the Pac-10 and then bowed meekly out of the NCAA Tournament with a first-round loss to Seton Hall. This year, the Wildcats return one of the most talented starting lineups in the country. Start inside, where the Cats can pound you with the tandem of Channing Fyre and Isaiah Fox, who is returning from a season-ending knee injury. Frye is one of the best post scorers in the Pac-10 and with Fox around to watch his back again, the Cats will be very strong inside.
The strength of this team, though, is on the perimeter. Point guard Mustafa Shakur is one of the best in the land and with high-flying Hassan Adams on one side and sniper Salim Stoudamire on the other side, they can be murder on the break. And, on nights when Stoudamire's shot isn't falling, coach Lute Olsen can call on junior guard Chris Rodgers, who just happened to hit 42% of his shots from behind the arc last year, to come off the bench and give the team a lift.
The freshman class, led by wing player Jawann McClellan, provides coach Olsen with some much-needed depth. The Wildcats have all the makings of a championship team, especially if Stoudamire keeps his head on straight and doesn't cause any chemistry problems. He is their best perimeter scorer and when he plays up to his potential, the Cats are very tough to beat.
Even with the loss of outstanding forward Andre Iguodala to the NBA, the Cats should be prowling around the Elite Eight once the smoke of the tournament clears and could very well end up in St. Louis playing for the national championship.
Kentucky Wildcats
Unlike their feline cousins to the West, the Kentucky Wildcats don't figure to be the hunted this season. But, by season's end, they could be feasting on another championship for coach Tubby Smith. If they accomplish the feat this year, it will be thanks to another phenomenal recruiting class.
Some teams go through periods of rebuilding. They might have one great recruiting class, reap the benefits of those players for a few years, and then have to start the process all over again once those players leave the program. Then, there's Kentucky.
The five-man recruiting class that Tubby has brought to Lexington this season is considered the best in the country and at least two of the newcomers, and possibly three, will start for the Wildcats. It all begins with 6-11 center Randolph Morris. Morris, a certain first-round NBA draft choice last June had he kept that option open, has the potential to be the most dominant big man in the SEC and a defensive anchor in the middle. With senior Chuck Hayes alongside him in the frontcourt, the Cats will be long and lean down low.
One trait these cats share with their Wildcat brethren to the west is their depth on the perimeter. Freshmen guards Rajon Rondo and Joe Crawford represent the backcourt of the future for Kentucky, although the future is probably now for Crawford. They, along with fellow freshman Ramel Bradley, transfer Patrick Sparks, and incumbent starter Kelenna Azubuike, will help ease the loss of seniors Gerald Fitch and Cliff Hawkins from last season's team.
This team will no doubt experience periods of inconsistency, as coach Smith tries to get the youngsters acclimated to his system and big-time college basketball. But, as the freshmen become more comfortable with their surroundings and each other, these Wildcats will become extremely dangerous. Look for an uneven regular season, which may keep them below many people's radar, but watch out once February and March roll around. They have the look of a scary team that will only get better the further their season progresses.
Illinois Fighting Illini
The Illini are a sexy pick to win the national title and for good reason. They sport one of the best backcourt tandems in the country in juniors Dee Brown and Deron Williams. Both players are capable of torching a team for 20-plus points on any given night and are virtually interchangeable in the lineup. They will be counted on to lead this team to the Promised Land.
But this team is more than just Brown and Williams. Luther Head is a player many are predicting will have a breakout season. After suffering through two different suspensions last season, he was able to put it all together with a strong push at the end, dropping double digits points in 10 of the Illini's final 19 games. If he can continue to improve at that rate, the Illini will be even more difficult to defend on the perimeter.
On the inside, Roger Powell and James Augustine will do the dirty work. Powell tested the waters of the NBA draft last spring, saw that no one would bite, and wisely returned to Champaign. He and Augustine, though a bit undersized as a duo, need to control the boards for Illinois to make the short journey from Champaign to St. Louis. If they can keep the Illini from being totally dominated on the boards on a nightly basis, the perimeter firm of Brown, Head and Williams will handle the rest.
Michigan State Spartans
Staying in the Big 10 conference, the Michigan State Spartans are another team loaded with talent. In fact, that may be part of their problem. They have so many players whose talents evenly match those of someone else's on the roster that it's difficult for coach Tom Izzo to pick a starting lineup each night. Izzo has to choose between Alan Anderson, Chris Hill, Kelvin Torbert, Maurice Ager, and Shannon Brown for minutes, as well as incorporate much-hyped freshman point guard Drew Neitzel into the rotation. It's a problem many coaches would love to have, but one the Spartans will need to overcome if they are to advance as far as their talent could take them.
One player who knows he will be in the starting lineup every night, though, is center Paul Davis. Davis is a future NBA player and is the Spartans' go-to player. He can score effectively with both hands in the post, as well as facing the basket. He can't be counted on to do it alone down low, though, and finding him help will be a key factor to determining how far the Spartans can go. The Spartans are a very deep team and should battle Illinois all year for the Big 10 crown. If coach Izzo is able to find minutes and roles for all of his talented players, the Spartans could very well be on their way to the Final Four.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Demon Deacons are poised for a great year. They are on everyone's short list this year as a consensus Final Four team, including mine. After reaching the Sweet 16 last season, the Deacons bring back eight players who played significant minutes last year. Leading the charge will be center Eric Williams, one of the ACC's most productive big men, and guards Justin Gray and national Player of the Year candidate Chris Paul. When motivated, Williams is one of the better interior players in the country, and with Gray and Paul on the outside, he will get plenty of opportunities to dominate inside.
Gray and Paul form the perfect guard combo, with Gray as the shooter/scorer and Paul the orchestrator/floor general. Gray and Paul helped lead the USA to the gold medal in the World Championships For Young Men qualifying tournament over the summer and look like they are ready to add some more hardware to their mantle next spring. Paul had a wonderful summer, improving his stock so much that many are calling him the best point guard in the country and a potential lottery pick in next spring's NBA draft.
The key to the team may be senior forward Vytas Danelius, however. If he's recovered from the nagging injuries that plagued him last season and can provide Williams with help on the boards, the Deacons will be even stronger. The one glaring weakness for this team, and what may prove to be their Achilles heel, is defense. They were the worst defensive team in the ACC last season, something they will have to improve if they are to improve upon their finish from last season. If they're able to shore up that part of their game, the Deacons, led by Paul, will be among the last teams standing in March.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
The Yellow Jackets won't be able to sneak up on anybody this year, unlike last year. After bursting into the national spotlight last year following their victory in the Preseason NIT, the Jackets came crashing back to earth with a less than stellar campaign in the brutal ACC. However, they were able to pick themselves up, dust themselves off, and run off five-straight victories in the NCAA tournament. Even though derailed in the national championship game by Connecticut, the Jackets showed everyone last year that they were a force to be reckoned with.
This year, the Jackets will be right back in the hunt for the national title and the engine that will drive the bus will be their stellar guard trio of Jarret Jack, Will Bynum, and B.J. Elder. Either of the three has the ability to take over a game, as Bynum and Jack often did during their remarkable postseason run last year. You will be hard-pressed to find many guard trios in the country with more talent.
Inside, Australian big man Luke Schenscher will again be the man. The 7-1 Schenscher came alive last year, especially during the tournament, and provides the Jackets with an ever improving inside presence. And, from a purely entertainment standpoint, human jumping jack Isma'il Muhammad is a SportsCenter highlight waiting to happen. The Yellow Jackets, as with most of the teams on this list, will be carried by its stellar backcourt. Judging from last season's results, they're in good hands. The Jackets will be very good again this year and a very tough out in the tournament.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Maybe this is the reason Roy Williams left Kansas. Maybe he envisioned the type of talent the Heels would have this year. And maybe, just maybe, he felt that this squad would finally be the one that helps him capture that elusive championship he's chased so hard. Well, by the looks of things, it would be hard to disagree with him, because the Heels are loaded. They sport perhaps the best starting five in the country, this side of Arizona.
The Heels are led by their much-ballyhooed junior trio of Sean May, Raymond Felton, and Rashad McCants. May is the muscle for the Tar Heels and, if he stays healthy and in shape, can easily average double figures in both points and rebounds. Point guard Raymond Felton is the unquestioned leader of the team. He is one of the top assist men in the country, a phenomenal passer, and is deadly in transition. He is the perfect fit for Williams' up-tempo offense. He will only get better as his shooting becomes more consistent.
Shooting is a problem that Rashad McCants has never had in his life. McCants may be the most explosive scorer in the country and the biggest challenge to the Tar Heels' run to the championship. McCants is equally adept at hitting the deep three, posting his man up on the block, and finishing strong at the rim. He is clearly Carolina's number one option and when he's rolling, the Heels are nearly unstoppable. If he plays up to his capabilities, he should also be a finalist for the Wooden Award.
Depth was a major concern for the Tar Heels last season, so coach Williams went out and solved the problem, bringing freshman forward Marvin Williams to Chapel Hill. Williams flirted with the NBA draft last spring, as all top high school seniors do these days, but unlike his fellow recruit J.R. Smith, he decided to enroll in school. He should immediately step into the starting lineup, providing May with some much-needed help on the boards and adding another scorer to this already extremely potent lineup.
With all their talent, the Tar Heels should be a lock to reach St. Louis. However, chemistry is an important ingredient to any championship team and McCants, with his sometimes "me-first" attitude, may be the fly in the ointment that keeps them from winning it all. However, if he plays within the system and all the egos mesh, this team should be right there in St. Louis, maybe even playing in the final game.
Okay, I've given you eight teams that I think will be near the top fighting it out for the national title come April. An Elite Eight, if you will. All these teams can be special once the tournament begins, but there's one team I feel will be standing tall once the music stops. And that team is:
Kansas Jayhawks
How ironic would it be if the Kansas Jayhawks won the national title this year? After former coach Roy Williams got this close so many years, he left the program, only for them to win two years later. Well, that scenario is a distinct possibility this year, as the Jayhawks will be among the top-ranked teams all year and are my choice to win the national crown. No team will trot out a group with more experience than the trio of Wayne Simien, Aaron Miles, and Keith Langford. The three seniors (!) have helped this team reach two Final Fours and an Elite Eight and it says here that they will get at least that far this year.
Simien, a power forward, is a "bull-in-the-china-shop" type player, pounding his way inside for close-in shots and dunks. When the Jayhawks go into their half-court offense, Simien will be found down on the block, muscling his way around, looking to destroy all those foolish enough to get in his way.
Miles, the point guard, and Langford, the shooting guard, give coach Bill Self the type of steady and experienced backcourt that many college coaches covet. Miles, the ultimate playmaker and only four-year starter on the roster, is on the verge of shattering Jacque Vaughn's school record for assists, while Langford's sweet lefty stroke allowed him to put up nearly 16 points per game last season.
However, the player everyone in Lawrence is raving about this season is sophomore wing J.R. Giddens. His combination of size, athletic ability, and shooting touch has the pro scouts drooling. If he continues on his upward arc, he will be enjoying his last season at Kansas.
One problem this team had last season, like a lot of teams, was a lack of quality depth behind the starters. That figures to change this year with another stellar recruiting class brought in by coach Self. This team is hungry to close the deal, after having come so close the last three years. They are a battle-tested team, having to wage war on a nightly basis in the Big 12, as well as their deep tournament runs the past few years. And, they have a trio of seniors who have played significant roles for this team the last few years. In today's game, you can't underestimate the advantage that senior leadership can give a team.
In addition to all that, the Jayhawks have a coach in Bill Self who has proven he knows how to win. Barring injury, this team has no real discernible weakness and should waltz into St. Louis as the favorite to win the championship. Let the cries of "Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk!" commence.
November 2, 2004
john spicer:
what about those michigan wolverines?
they won the n.i.t. last year—
do you expect them to contend for a conference title this year? how about an ncaa tourney birth? how far can they go?
let me know your thoughts…
john
December 6, 2004
Josh:
Everyone knows to watch these teams. Why not dig a little deeper and try to find a diamond in the rough. For instance, The Arkansas Razorbacks, a perennial powerhouse in years past, is on the uprise. They gave Illinois all they could handle on Saturday. The deeply talented ande extremely young Razorback squad lost by 12, which was not indicative of how close the game really was. Need I remind you, that Illinois had been winning games by an average 20+ point margin of victory, included in that was a 28 point floor mopping of then overrated #1 Wake Forest. Look out because 3rd year coach Stan Heath has got this program back on track. Look for the Hogs to be that Top 5 squad competing for the National Championship within 3 years. Hog Heaven is returning to Fayetteville! These Razorbacks are going to bring the noise!!