NFL Week 4 Power Rankings

Five Quick Hits

* When you watch NFL Primetime, the Sunday Night Football halftime show, and SportsCenter, you have to hear Chris Berman make the same jokes three times. Also, comparing Brett Favre's scrambling to Fran Tarkenton's is unforgivable.

* Josh McCown is the only quarterback to have started four games this season, but not throw a touchdown pass. Does he really play for Dennis Green?

* I want to like Linda Cohn, but I don't. At all.

* Cincinnati is my highest-ranked 1-3 team. Chad Johnson pays me $100 a week to do this.

* Did Peter King really call someone else fat this week? Hey, Peter, ever hear that one about the kettle and the pot?

I was wrong. Last week, I wrote, "Atlanta is 3-0, but ranked behind the 1-2 Packers and Titans, and I expect that to be justified by the results of Week 4's games." That couldn't possibly have been more off, as the Falcons won a big game on the road, and Green Bay and Tennessee both lost to mediocre teams. Warrick Dunn is off to a great start, the defense is for real, and Michael Vick is a human firecracker. The defense was strong in 2002, too, and for some reason, it stunk last year (30th in points-allowed, last in yards-allowed). Now it's back.

Less encouraging are Vick's passing numbers. He's 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game (min. three games), behind such illustrious names as McCown and A.J. Feeley. Vick is tied for 26th in TD passes. His passer rating trails those of Drew Brees and Tim Rattay. This wouldn't be a big deal except that it's a pattern. Vick has yet to complete 15 passes in any of his four games. At some point, teams are going to force Atlanta to pass. If Vick responds, they'll keep winning. If he doesn't, Jim Mora, Jr., will switch from the "West Coast" Offense to the Single Wing.

Moving on to the power rankings, brackets show last week's rank.

1. Philadelphia Eagles [1] -- Their 10-point win at Chicago was the smallest margin of victory Philly has had all season, but the score doesn't reflect the way the Eagles dominated the game. Philadelphia had a 15-minute edge in time of possession, out-gained the Bears by a buck-fifty, and rolled up over 150 yards both on the ground and through the air. The run defense that looked has vulnerable at times held Thomas Jones, the NFC's leading rusher entering Week 4, to 32 yards on 13 carries. Donovan McNabb finally struggled, and Brian Westbrook responded with his best game of the season. This is unquestionably the best team in the league right now.

2. Seattle Seahawks [2] -- A week for Shaun Alexander to rest is a good week. Seattle's much-improved defense matches up against the potentially explosive St. Louis offense next week. A win would give Seattle a commanding 2½-game lead in the NFC West before the season is a quarter of the way over.

3. New England Patriots [3] -- Bill Belichick's team is famous for its preparation and focus, so it probably isn't fair to accuse the Pats of overlooking Buffalo after an early bye gave them an extra week to prepare for the Bills at home. Nonetheless, New England was tied or trailing for the entirety of the second and third quarters. New England finds ways to win games like this, but it's disturbing how close apparently mediocre teams can play the Patriots. Since we can't accuse them of being poorly prepared, we may have to accuse them of not being all that great. There's a reason Super Bowl champions seldom repeat. We'll get a real look at the Patriots over the next month, when they have a fairly tough schedule, although the two most threatening games (the Seahawks and Jets) are in New England.

4. Indianapolis Colts [4] -- No matter how many good things you say about the offense, there's no getting around the terrible pass defense. Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich threw for fewer than 150 yards in each of his first three games, averaging only 5.4 yards per attempt. Against the Colts, he threw for 318 with a 7.8 average and a 101.5 passer rating. Tom Brady and Brett Favre also had their best games of the season against Indianapolis; three of the Colts' four opponents have passed for over 300 yards against this defense. When they play Kansas City and Minnesota in consecutive weeks later this year, the scoreboard might break from overuse.

5. Minnesota Vikings [6] -- Dallas is 2-1 now, and the Vikings shocked and awed them in Week 1. Minnesota's only loss is to the Eagles. Nate Burleson is emerging as a legitimate threat alongside Randy Moss, and the last time Moss had a partner in crime, the Vikes made it to the NFC Championship Game. That's not out of the question this year, either.

6. Denver Broncos [5] -- The offense is having problems. Mike Shanahan's team bears little resemblance to his Super Bowl winners in the late 1990s. His handpicked QB went 13-for-31. Quentin Griffin struggled for the third consecutive game and split carries with Reuben Droughns, who was even less effective. Rod Smith led all Bronco receivers with four catches, and Ashley Lelie had one reception for three yards.

7. New York Jets [8] -- Went on the road with an extra week of rest, but looked less than dominant against the Dolphins. It's easy to forget that the Jets have built a 3-0 record feasting on Cincinnati, San Diego, and Miami. None of those teams has a winning record, and none will contend for the playoffs this year. On the bright side, Curtis Martin continues to look terrific, and Kevin Mawae's injured hand didn't appear to hamper him against the Dolphins.

8. Atlanta Falcons [14] -- Mora, a first-time head coach, is 4-0. I don't know what the record is for most wins to open a head-coaching career, but Atlanta's next two games are at home against Detroit and San Diego. Mora has a pretty good chance to hit 6-0, and if that's not the record, it's close.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars [10] -- Most people expected a close loss against the Colts on Sunday, and that's exactly what we got. Thus, Jacksonville doesn't slide in the rankings. Leftwich wasn't able to pull out a win, but his coach finally showed a willingness to put the game in his quarterback's hands, and the QB responded. The weakness of the defense he faced isn't a big deal, because getting Leftwich some positive experience and building his confidence is a big deal. Jacksonville is a solid playoff contender in the AFC.

10. Baltimore Ravens [7] -- Exposed on Monday night in an embarrassing way, this team looked lost against Kansas City. The defense couldn't get itself off the field. It allowed 178 rushing yards and didn't force a turnover. Trent Green was only sacked once in 37 drop-backs. The real villain, though, was the offense. Jacksonville's lethargic air assault woke up against the awful Indianapolis defense; faced with the league's last-place rush defense, the Ravens only ran Jamal Lewis 15 times and couldn't convert third downs. Baltimore has a light schedule, but when they play teams who can score against them, the Ravens simply won't be able to keep up. Baltimore is the highest-ranked 2-2 team.

11. Pittsburgh Steelers [18] -- Big Ben Roethlisberger is off to an impressive start in the NFL. Almost as encouraging as Roethlisberger's solid play is Duce Staley's emergence as the featured runner. Staley has had 100 yards on the ground in consecutive games, despite splitting time with Verron Haynes and Jerome Bettis, which should help to ensure that Staley remains healthy. It's worth noting that Cincinnati's Rudi Johnson had his best game of the season against Pittsburgh, but for now, the Steelers' run defense doesn't appear to be a weak point. A home game against the Browns in Week 5 means Pittsburgh has a good chance to open the season 4-1.

12. Dallas Cowboys [13] -- Upcoming games should give us an idea of whether this team is for real. They have the Giants and Steelers at home, then Green Bay on the road, then back to Dallas to play the Lions. The Cowboys could conceivably win all four of those games, or lose all four. Put me down for 3-1, but we'll all have a better idea as this team puts a few more games under its belt.

13. New York Giants [22] -- The mistake I -- and almost everyone else -- made at the beginning of the season was to forget that two years ago, the Giants went 10-6 and made the playoffs. Last season wasn't just a disappointment; it was a shock. New York was expected to contend for the NFC East title. What Tom Coughlin has done is get this group back up towards the level it played at in 2002. The Giants are playing like they don't even remember last year.

14. Carolina Panthers [9] -- It's early yet, but Carolina is presently third in the NFC South. It's tough to have a handle on this team after only three games, but it doesn't seem like last year's gritty team. I get a feeling like they're missing inspiration. Two killer road games await (Denver and Philadelphia) and if the Panthers lose both, they'll be an incredible 1-4. It would be tough to overcome a start like that and make the playoffs, so Carolina needs to win at least one of those matchups. They'll probably have a better shot against the Broncos, which means the pressure is on this week.

15. Detroit Lions [16] -- Aided by a couple of good drafts, Steve Mariucci has started to turn this team around. Meanwhile, Mariucci's old team is in the doghouse. Is it by any stretch of the imagination possible to think that the 49ers are better off with Dennis Erickson than with Mooch?

16. Cincinnati Bengals [17] -- Jon Kitna is the best quarterback on this team, but Carson Palmer should remain the starter for now. I never would have benched Kitna in the first place -- the Bengals should be contending for the playoffs this season, and they're 1-3 under Palmer -- but at this point, you stick with the kid. Palmer is making mistakes, but he's shown exciting potential. There's no substitute for experience, and pulling Palmer at this point could put a psychological dent in his progress. Marvin Lewis has put himself in the unusual position of having to play his second-best healthy QB.

17. Green Bay Packers [11] -- Please refer to my preseason power rankings. It's coming true. They've lost three in a row, two of them at Lambeau Field. Brett Favre hasn't finished either of the last two games. Could this be the beginning of the end? You don't mess around with concussions. Ask Steve Young and Troy Aikman. The wheels are falling off in Green Bay.

18. Tennessee Titans [12] -- They're lost three-straight since a win in their opener against Miami, and now find themselves in the cellar of the AFC South. Next Monday night, the Titans face a team in a similar situation, the Packers. Ugly things await the loser. Right now, I lean towards Green Bay, but Jeff Fisher will find a way to right the ship.

19. New Orleans Saints [15] -- Their loss to Arizona is one of the most shocking upsets so far this season, because any time the Cardinals win, it shocks me. New Orleans has played every team in the NFC West. The Saints compete in the NFC South, though, and open their division schedule at home against Tampa in Week 5.

20. St. Louis Rams [23] -- Pat Summerall called Isaac Bruce a "perennial Pro Bowler." Bruce has made four Pro Bowls in his 10 seasons, and none in the last two years. Perennial means year in, year out. Jerry Rice was a perennial Pro Bowler. Cris Carter was a perennial Pro Bowler. Bruce has missed the Pro Bowl more often than he's made it, and his current streak is at zero. On a related, but non-Summerall note, I hate it when announcers refer to moderately good players as "All-Pro." That term means you have actually been selected to an All-Pro team, preferably either the AP's or mine. And don't even get me started on "all-world."

21. Houston Texans [26] -- Two in a row, and they didn't seem to miss Domanick Davis. I don't have much to say about this team because I still haven't seen it play. Going by stats and highlights, this week's win seemed more cohesive and all-around impressive than last week's. But that still isn't saying much, and they're stuck in the 20s. Three in a row and I'll guarantee the teens, probably even the top-half of the Rankings.

22. Oakland Raiders [19] -- It basically comes down to Kerry Collins committing five turnovers. You can't win when that happens. It won't, usually, so Oakland makes a modest drop.

23. San Diego Chargers [30] -- Winning with offense is not traditionally Marty Schottenheimer's formula, but that's what happened against Tennessee. Drew Brees averaged over 10 yards per pass, and LaDainian Tomlinson averaged 8.6 yards per run. San Diego put up 38 points against the Titans, more than the Colts did in Week 2. This ranking might be too low, but it's bunched up here and I don't know who to move down.

24. Kansas City Chiefs [28] -- The final score doesn't indicate how good the Chiefs looked on Monday night. The defense came up big when it had to, and the offense was terrific. Kansas City won time of possession by almost 20 minutes (2:1), and the offensive line looked like it did last year, when four of its five starters made my All-Pro team. Until proven otherwise, though, this was a last gasp of greatness. Special teams were awful all game, but Al Michaels said something stupid when he claimed that Dante Hall was struggling this season: "he's only averaging 14 yards per [punt] return." Entering Week 4, that led the NFL.

25. Cleveland Browns [27] -- It took less than 24 hours for the same people criticizing Jeff Garcia as a "system" player to start praising his performance against Washington and cooing about how good he is outside the pocket. He had a terrible game against the Cowboys, but other than that, he's been pretty good this year. His passer rating in Cleveland's three other games is 95.0. The Browns are the lowest-ranked 2-2 team, but they rule I-95 between the Beltway and the Chesapeake.

25. Buffalo Bills [24] -- Kept it close against New England, but now have a worse record than Arizona. Buffalo was driving late in the fourth quarter and had reached the red zone when Tedy Bruschi sacked Drew Bledsoe and the resultant fumble was returned for a game-clinching touchdown. The Bills scored more than 10 points for the first time all season.

26. Chicago Bears [21] -- The Bears can keep it close against anyone, but unpredictable groups like the Saints, Raiders, and Chiefs are probably capable of beating all but the top few teams in the league. Chicago can just lose to them respectably. The offense looked dead against Philadelphia.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers [25] -- For all the talk about John Lynch and that fat guy in Oakland, the defense seems to be fine without them. Michael Pittman's return helps to fill the hole created by Charlie Garner's injury, so the offense isn't quite as bad as it appeared last Sunday night against the Raiders. I know the game was probably hopeless by the time Chris Simms came in, but I didn't like Jon Gruden's call on the last play. No one can throw the ball 90 yards. You set up something crazy with at least one lateral. The only way to score from that far away is with the Music City Miracle.

29. Washington Redskins [20] -- For two weeks in a row, Washington has wasted a potentially game-changing timeout challenging a call that obviously wouldn't be overturned. The offense can't get anything done. I predicted 7-9 before the season began, but if they keep playing like this, Joe Gibbs will have the top pick in next April's draft.

30. Arizona Cardinals [32] -- If you voted for Emmitt Smith as Player of the Week, please don't read my column any more. You probably don't like it anyway. It's more directed at people who know something about football.

31. Miami Dolphins [31] -- I usually hate listening to Kevin Harlan and Randy Cross, but they were actually pretty good in the Jets/'Fins contest. Miami's offense looked functional at times on Sunday, and the turnovers are a little misleading because several of them came on weird plays and tipped balls. Jay Fiedler, sadly, remains the best choice at quarterback.

32. San Francisco 49ers [29] -- Two weeks in a row looking like the worst team in the NFL will get you placed in the spot reserved for just such a team. San Francisco loyalists can commiserate with fans from Cincinnati and Washington in the "My Team's Owner is Running a Once-Proud Franchise into the Ground" Club. Injuries are only making the bad get worse.

Comments and Conversation

October 5, 2004

Todd:

Wheres #27?

October 9, 2004

Jonathan Moncrief:

How do you have Denver ahead of Jacksonville? Both teams are 3-1, and the Jaguars defeated Denver in Week 2? Are you also a member of the BCS Committee?

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