A Gambler’s Tale

Most civilizations across the world have adopted an attitude that alcohol can be enjoyed with moderation. Some nations proscribe norms that tolerate marijuana, and most jurisdictions regulate, but condone tobacco. Holland and Nevada are two places that have hookers on the right side of the law.

So, which vices, exactly, can be enjoyed in moderation and which ones can't?

I'm thinking, in particular, about the one vice I have intentionally not mentioned yet, gambling. I ask because for this first time this year, I am doing quite a bit of it ... both the monetary version and the contests where you play for bragging rights (which often can be sweeter than cash).

I am involved -- make that engrossed -- in no less than five contests a week. Four of them involve Sports Central.

The first is Sports Central fantasy golf. I'm far ahead, and looking forward to changing my Sports Central Message Boards title, right above my username, to SC Fantasy Golf Champ. Famous last words.

The second is the SC college football pick'em contest (visit the message boards to join in any of these events, although you'll have to wait until next year for fantasy golf). Then there's our two NFL pick'em contests: straight-up and against the spread. I obsess over all of these, which makes my lackluster results thus far all the more embarrassing.

The biggie, though, is the office pool a co-worker runs. That one is for money.

$10 bucks to enter. You are given the NFL and college football lines from Tuesday's USA Today. That's about 50 games, or 65 if you count the over/under action available to you for NFL games.

Pick the 10 teams and/or games, any 10, that you like the best against the spread or over/under. Each one you win is worth a point. Pick one game that you are absolutely positive about. Designate that game or team as your "lock." That one is worth three points if you hit it. Most points wins 80% of the pot, second place gets 20%. Since 15-20 people enter each week, this adds up. You are looking at around $160 for winning and about $40 for pulling down second. Not bad at all.

But it's completely changed the way I look at games. My lock this week was Marshall, 7 1/2 point favorites at home against Miami of Ohio.

How can Marshall not cover that? They took two of the best ten teams in the country to the ropes. Miami has proved already they are a shadow of their former selves.

If you would have told me that Marshall would sack Miami six times, gain more rushing and passing yards than Miami, and hold a 5-to-1 turnover differential in their favor, I would have bet my kidneys against a donut that Marshall would cover. Is it even mathematically possible that Miami could keep it close despite all this?

Well, cover Marshall did. By half of a point. Half of a swear-inducing, bullet-sweating point. 33-25.

Whew.

I've learned a lot since becoming more of a gambler.

I've learned that you must have your lock come through to have any prayer of winning the pool.

I've learned that gambling makes you root bizarrely. After three-plus quarters of "Go Marshall! Go Marshall! Go Marshall!" Miami scored a touchdown to cut the lead down to 33-23. As Miami lined up to go for two, I realized something.

If they miss, Marshall will be up by 10. So if Miami gets the ball back, they will have no reservations about kicking a field goal, since they're down two scores anyway. A field goal would put them down by seven, and the line that I need Marshall to win by is 7.5. Yikes. No good.

On the other hand, if Miami successfully converts the two pointer, they will only be down by eight. I would still be winning against the spread, only now Miami would be disinclined to try a field goal under any circumstances, since they'd have a chance to tie with a touchdown plus two.

Touchdowns are much less of a sure thing than field goals.

"Go Miami! Go Miami! Go Miami!"

Miami converted the two point conversion. So, it's back to "Go Marshall!" for me. Such are the bizarre and incestuous cheering patterns you may find yourself engaged in if you gamble on football.

(Epilogue: Miami did get the ball back and drove inside the Marshall 35 -- twice. I was once saved by a fumble inside the five and then by a missed fourth down conversion attempt. Heart-stopping stuff.)

I've learned that gambling will break your heart or at least make you bite your nails down to the quick. You can't just lose, you have to lose in agonizing ways, like Marshall almost did to me tonight.

Earlier this year, I called for TCU to get within the six-point spread of Texas Tech. Actually, I thought they'd win outright. I also called for Northern Illinois to get within four points of Iowa State.

At one point in the TCU/TTU game, TCU was on top 21-0. Not too much later, NIU went up on Iowa State, 34-20. In point-spread terms, I was waaaaay ahead (45 combined points, to be exact) on both games and feeling great about my lock, Georgia Tech, coming off an emotional road win over Clemson, to beat North Carolina, who barely beat William & Mary, by more than eight.

Things were looking good and I mixed myself another White Russian.

Texas Tech and Iowa State then went on to outscore TCU and Northern Illinois, respectively, 98-21. I was flipping back between both games, and there's nothing like going from watching a big lead turn into a little lead turn into a little deficit turn into a big deficit with terminal velocity. Not fun, especially when doubled. I kept my mood decent by remaining philosophical. I maintained my reflective state of mind throughout North Carolina's blowout of Georgia Tech. I was out of contention, way out, so of course the gambling gods mocked me by letting me win all three of the NFL games I picked.

So if you meet me on the street, remember: if I'm jubilant, I've had a winning week. If I'm philosophical, I lost. Moderation is the only way to live life, but it makes a lousy story.

(Note: I got a late start to this column and an important day of work [the non-gambling-related aspects of it], a day I need to be well-rested for, beckons tomorrow -- it's 1:27 AM as I type this]. The usual suspects like the top-25 and the picks of the week will return next time).

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