Projecting the result of American League Most Valuable Player Award voting of the Baseball Writers' Association of America has become fool's task. Recent history proves this: in 2002, Alex Rodriguez hit .300, launched 57 home runs, and drove in 142 runs, yet finished second in the vote to Miguel Tejada who's far inferior statistics suggested that more was on the minds of this generation's BWAA members than just statistics. Tejada won the vote because the Oakland A's won their division, while Rodriguez's Rangers finished 22 games under .500.
But in 2003, Rodriguez garnered the honor despite decreased production from 2002. He had a lower batting average, 10 fewer home runs, and 24 fewer RBIs, and the Rangers finished just one game better than they did in 2002. Perhaps this was the Writers' way of rewarding Rodriguez with his first MVP award after years in which the Rangers' record prevented the league's best player -- as evidenced by his five Players Choice Outstanding Player in the American League Awards -- from winning baseball's most prestigious individual award.
Still, in 2004, summoning anything more than educated guesses in predicting this season's winner is impossible. Through some light detective work, however, we may be able to narrow the field.
Pitchers are usually not an option, and this season probably will not be an exception. Only once in the last 19 seasons has a pitcher won the AL MVP: Dennis Eckersley in 1992. That season, Eckersley recorded 51 saves, a 1.91 earned-run average, and a 7-1 record for the AL West-winning Oakland A's. Eckersley's numbers are similar to this season's top AL reliever, Mariano Rivera. Rivera is 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 50 saves for the AL East-leading Yankees.
But Eckersley also won the Cy Young award in 1992, something Rivera is unlikely to do thanks to Johan Santana. As detailed in this writer's last column, Santana enjoys a huge lead in the Cy Young award race, and since that column, he has not allowed an earned run and his Twins have clinched the AL Central. So if a pitcher is to buck the 11-year position player monopoly on the MVP award, it will likely be Santana. But 1999's MVP voting results cast doubt on Santana's chances. It was five years ago when Pedro Martinez was denied the MVP, despite amassing numbers even better than Santana's, including a 1.90 ERA in 241 innings.
Rodriguez's 2003 MVP also bucked a trend: the tendency to reward players on winning teams. Indeed, this season, only Ichiro Suzuki commands mention as a player on a losing team. Ichiro is on pace to break the single season record for hits while batting .370 and stealing 35 bases. Sure, Ichiro has become the best leadoff hitter in the game -- virtually defining the position, which is: "get on base" -- and has also played Gold Glove-quality defense, but Ichiro's below-average power numbers prevent his possible record-breaking season from distracting the BBWA from the hapless Mariners' record.
So who's left? Five: Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Vladimir Guerrero, Alex Rodriguez, and Gary Sheffield. But Rodriguez struggled throughout the early part of the season, and has yet to break out of his slump with runners in scoring position (.243, and .167 with the bases loaded). Ortiz, meanwhile, is less of an option since he is a defensive liability in the field, and because his excellence has only manifested itself in the past two seasons. Generally, a player must produce for more than just one season to win the MVP. Even Ortiz has said that Manny Ramirez deserves the award, not him.
That leaves Ramirez, Guerrero, and Sheffield. All three players are the most feared bats in their lineups. All three have led their teams into a playoff race. And all three are right-handed outfielders that are devastating with bats in their hands.
In fact, one could argue that Ramirez, Guerrero, and Sheffield are the three best right-handed hitters in the game, with apologies to Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. All three are career .300-plus hitters who average over 30 home runs and 100 RBI every year.
But in 2004, all three have been brilliant. Ramirez has anchored a Red Sox lineup that saw the loss of two key perennial mainstays, Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon. His 41 home runs and .611 slugging percentage are tops in the American League, and he has also driven in 120 runs.
Guerrero has excelled as well on a team missing it's stars. Without sluggers Troy Glaus and Garrett Anderson for much of the season, Guerrero provided enough production to keep the Angels in the hunt for a postseason ticket. In addition to being a power threat at the plate (32 HRs, 114 RBI), Guerrero has managed to hit .328, steal 15 bases, and maintain the crown as the best arm in all of baseball.
Like Ramirez and Guerrero, Sheffield has anchored an offense lacking in star power. Well, that can be said for the Yankees, whose top hitters (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi) struggled early in the season. Sheffield has persevered throughout, hitting 36 HRs and driving in 117.
A detailed look at the statistics:
Distinguishing the most valuable of the statistic lines above is an exercise in preference; that is, which is more valuable: power, or average? Clearly, Ramirez captures the power categories, and an argument can be made for Manny as having the most impressive stats of all of the above. But Guerrero has a significantly higher average than Ramirez and Sheffield, and also has a remarkable 188 hits.
Guerrero has also had the added challenge of carrying the greatest of expectations in his first season outside of baseball oblivion, Montreal. He came to Anaheim as the most sought-after free agent of the winter, expected to bolster a lineup that included Anderson, Glaus, Darin Erstad, and Jose Guillen. Instead, Anderson, Glaus, and Erstad all went down with injuries, leaving Vlad to shoulder the load almost entirely on his own. His statistics certainly suggest that he did just that, carrying the Angels to contention in both the AL West and Wild Card races.
However, even though Glaus, Anderson, and Erstad have all returned to the Angels lineup, they are dangerously close to being eliminated from both races. Without a playoff berth, Guerrero cannot be chosen over Ramirez or Sheffield.
So how to distinguish between Ramirez and Sheffield? Sheffield is considered the better fielder, but ask anyone close to the team in Boston and they'll tell you how Manny gets to the park extra early every day to work on his fielding. And his highlight-reel, home run-robbing, game-saving catch in Yankee Stadium last weekend certainly helped his cause. Neither player is a threat to run.
Clutch hitting doesn't distinguish the two, either. Sheffield hits .331 with runners in scoring position with 79 RBI, while Ramirez hits .324 with 78 RBI.
But at this point in the season, Sheffield does have an advantage. It stems from the massive expectations placed upon him that dwarf even what Vlad Guerrero faced in his first season in Anaheim. Sheffield was actually pursued by the Yankees in lieu of Guerrero, who most felt was the better player. But the Yankees brass believed Sheffield would deliver the offense they so desired. Sheffield has no doubt delivered, and while that feat is impressive in itself, add to that the fact that his predecessors have struggled in their opening campaigns in the Bronx.
It's true. Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, and Roger Clemens: each player suffered through arguably their worst years as professionals in their first year in New York. Attribute that to whatever you may, the pressure, the atmosphere, no matter: struggles are struggles, and Sheffield has had no part of them. He has been the Yankees' instant gratification in a season which saw Alex Rodriguez hit .253 into May, Jason Giambi succumb to a bizarre string of injuries and illnesses, the beginning of the end for Bernie Williams, and Derek Jeter struggle to crack .200 by June 1.
Through it all, Sheffield has emerged as the team's most feared player, and has exhibited the consistency necessary to be the MVP, and he's done it all while maligned with a shoulder ailment. Oh, you didn't know that? While Jeter got his obligatory gobs of attention for playing through lacerations on his face after diving headlong into the box seats in Yankee Stadium, Sheffield has quietly been taking cortisone shots to numb the pain in his ailing shoulder. That's the sort of inspiration and leadership MVPs display.
Also, Sheffield has performed in September while the Red Sox chipped away at New York's lead in the AL East, which was seemingly insurmountable no more than a month ago. Ramirez, meanwhile, has hit just .252 since the All-Star Break and has hit just .236 in September.
Still, while Sheffield holds a slight lead in the race, at least as this writer sees it, there are no guarantees when the votes are cast. This weekend sees the final matchup between the Sox and Yankees; will the above hold if Ramirez provides late-inning heroics -- a lasting image of an MVP-type performance -- and the Red Sox overtake the Yankees in the East?
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