On paper, the Chicago Cubs should be one of the top four teams in the National League. On paper, they should be miles ahead in the wildcard race. On paper, they should be planning for October, not scrambling just to get there.
But as we all know, baseball games aren't played on paper.
Cubs fans know it because they saw it. Just last year in Game 6 of the NLCS against Florida, with the champagne on ice and Wrigley ready to explode, a man named Steve Bartman reached up from his seat down the left-field line for a foul ball and kept Moises Alou from catching it. It was the beginning of the end. It prolonged an inning that let the Marlins take the lead and win the game. And it set a horrible, doomsday tone for Game 7.
Suffice it to say, Bartman wasn't in the script. The Marlins went on to win the World Series while the Cubs sat at home on the couch thinking about what might have been.
On paper, the Cubs may not have been the better team. But on paper, they had a three-two lead in the series and their two best pitchers -- Mark Prior and Kerry Wood -- on the mound for Games 6 and 7. The series was theirs for the taking.
But in baseball, tiny aspects of the game can make a less-than-tiny difference. The most talented team doesn't always win.
Case in point: the 2004 edition of the Cubbies.
Dusty's bunch was supposed to run away with the division, pounding teams with a much-improved offense and the best pitching staff in baseball.
But now, with 13 games left in the regular season, the Cubs find themselves in a dogfight. Not for the division, either -- they're battling the Giants for the wildcard.
What happened?
In short, paper doesn't translate too well to reality. Paper doesn't factor in injuries. Paper doesn't count on an inconsistent defense. Paper doesn't identify that special something that makes great teams truly great.
The much-improved offense? In terms of stats, it is better. The Cubs hit .259 as a team last year. This year, they've bumped it up to .270. Last season, they hit 172 homeruns. This season, they've belted 220, the second-most in all of baseball.
But look behind those stats. The Cubs are an inconsistent offensive team. In a seven-game stretch from Sept. 6-12, this is what their game-by-game run totals look like: 9, 6, 0, 0, 11, 5, 1. Sure that's a small sample size, but it illustrates the fact that the Cubs don't pound out hits day in and day out. They have good days, and they have bad days. When you factor in the Cubs' notoriously poor base-running, the inconsistency at the plate is compounded.
And while the Cubs have the most power in the National League, that doesn't always work to their advantage. They cost themselves runs because they rarely play small-ball. When the three through seven hitters for the Cubs are at the plate, bunt is a dirty word. Alou, Aramis Ramirez, Sammy Sosa, and Derrek Lee can all hit the long ball, so why take the bat out of their hands? The result is that the Cubs rely on their prodigious power over station-to-station baseball.
How about the pitching? The starting staff that was supposed to be the best in baseball has rarely been together with Prior and Wood each missing significant time thanks to injuries. The rest of the staff hasn't matched the consistency of last year and the numbers show it. Last season, the staff ERA was 3.28. This year, it's 3.80.
The bullpen, also a supposed strength, has struggled at times. When LaTroy Hawkins was forced to move into the closer's role because of an injury to Joe Borowski, the Cubs lost their best setup man.
All of it -- the inconsistent offense, the reliance on homeruns, and the shaky pitching -- adds up to a season that hasn't gone according to the script.
Luckily for the Cubs, there's still time. Last season, the Cubs won nine of their final 13 games. If they do the same thing this year, if they can put it all together, they should make the playoffs again.
But one has to wonder why they haven't put it all together yet and if they ever will. Maybe the offense is too powerful for its own good. Maybe Sosa really is a .260 hitter. Maybe Corey Patterson isn't a good leadoff hitter. Maybe Nomar isn't the answer at shortstop. Maybe Wood and Prior aren't as good as advertised.
That's a lot of maybes.
But one thing's for sure -- you won't see those maybes on paper.
The Cubs hope you don't see them on the field, either.
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