NFL Preseason Power Rankings

There's no room for Five Quick Hits this week, but they'll be here after Week 1. Before a quick explanation of the rankings for new readers, I'd like to thank the old ones. This is my third season of doing Sports Central power rankings, and I've written nearly 100 articles for SC now. You're the ones that make that possible, and I appreciate it. Let me hear from you by commenting at the end of the articles.

My power rankings are intended to reflect how good a team is right now, not how they'll finish the season. Similarly, my Week 9 Rankings (for example) will judge who's playing the best football in Week 9, not who's had the best overall season so far or who will be the best team at season's end. With that caveat in place, let's get along to the first Sports Central power rankings of the 2004 season.

1. Indianapolis Colts -- One of this offseason's hottest topics has been who will benefit most from stringent enforcement of the league's illegal contact rule. The Colts are near the top of the list, and this is a team that last season went 12-4 and made the AFC Championship Game. Furthermore, Indianapolis had as little player turnover as just about anyone in the league. That also means that the defense remains a concern, but the offense should be powerful enough to assure Tony Dungy's club of a playoff spot. If Edgerrin James can stay healthy and play the way he did last season (six 100-yard performances in 13 games) or -- here's a scary thought -- in 1999 and 2000, the Colts may be able to make a Super Bowl run. The early part of the schedule is brutal, beginning with games at New England and Tennessee, so we'll get to put this No. 1 business to the test right away.

2. New England Patriots -- It would only be a slight exaggeration to say that New England's success this season will depend on how efficiently the team uses new RB Corey Dillon. Everyone studied the Patriots in the offseason, and if Charlie Weis tries to conduct the offense the same way he did last year, with dinky short passes and no real deep threat or even a great running game, New England will finish 9-7 and miss the playoffs, just like it did after the last time the team won the Super Bowl. The Patriots are rich in receivers, with David Givens, David Patten, Troy Brown, Deion Branch, and Bethel Johnson joining an unusually large group of talented tight ends plus RB Kevin Faulk, a talented receiver out of the backfield. It would be a mistake for the Pats to abandon last year's game plan entirely. But to pressure opponents this season and to keep Tom Brady healthy, the Patriots will need to make teams respect the run and go deep more often. I like this team, but it's got a big target painted on it, and some creativity will be needed if New England is going to return to the Super Bowl.

3. Carolina Panthers -- I don't know when I suddenly got so high on the Panthers. I didn't think much of them last season, and before the playoffs I fell just short of guaranteeing that they wouldn't make it to the Super Bowl. As recently as two weeks ago, when a friend asked me about NFC Super Bowl contenders, I mentioned Philadelphia and Seattle. But Carolina, in what figures to be the NFC's most competitive division, returns most of the key figures from last year's team. The Panthers have one of the league's best defenses, and the offense showed explosive potential in last year's playoffs. Jake Delhomme has shown himself to be a solid field general, while a running tandem of Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster has to be considered one of the best in the league. WR Steve Smith, once considered a return specialist, has taken his place as one of the game's most dangerous receivers, while elder statesman Muhsin Muhammad remains a reliable target for Delhomme. I'm still not totally sold on Carolina, but right now, there's no one in the NFC who I like better.

4. Denver Broncos -- I'd be lying if I said I weren't uncomfortable having the Broncos so high. The only two Denver RBs to score rushing TDs in 2003 are gone (Clinton Portis to Washington and Mike Anderson to IR). Shannon Sharpe and Ed McCaffrey have retired. Center Tom Nalen is getting a little long in the tooth. One or two injuries could devastate the passing game. Even with all that, it's easy to see this team doing great things in 2004. Jake Plummer showed signs last year that he's matured into a QB capable of guiding his team through the NFL's murky postseason. If RB Quentin Griffin, who filled in nicely for Portis last season, falters, Mike Shanahan can call on veteran Garrison Hearst or rookie Tatum Bell. The defense added veteran leadership in DE Marco Coleman and S John Lynch, and picked up highly-regarded CB Champ Bailey in the trade that sent Portis to Washington. As the season begins, Denver has a balanced team that should be expected to succeed.

5. Tennessee Titans -- This team has no depth and I don't expect it to finish the season this high in the power rankings. That said, if Jeff Fisher's group can stay healthy, there's no reason it couldn't compete for the AFC title. Steve McNair carries this team, and in Derrick Mason, he's found a great receiver with whom to build a pass-based offense. LB Keith Bulluck is a defensive MVP candidate. There, now I've cursed him.

6. Seattle Seahawks -- There are a lot of teams bunched around this area, and it makes me uncomfortable trying to sort them out, but I think the Seahawks are in good position as this season begins. The NFC West figures to be one of the weakest divisions in the NFL, maybe the weakest, and Seattle's mostly young corps of key players is a year older and better. Grant Wistrom should help on the defensive line, while former Eagle Bobby Taylor should replace the departed Shawn Springs. In what appears to be a weak year for the NFC, Mike Holmgren is being presented with his best chance to win a Super Bowl in Seattle.

7. Kansas City Chiefs -- Fluke. That's the word that worries me. We all know that K.C. has talent on offense, and that isn't going to change. But is it the kind of talent that can carry them to another 13-3 record if the defense hasn't improved? Not likely. Priest Holmes is a year older -- running backs tend to wear down quickly -- and it's out of the question that Dante Hall can replicate his returning feats from last year, if for no other reason than that teams will kick away him. I'm not saying Holmes is through, because I think he's still one of the best RBs in the league, but he can't do everything if the defense won't hold up its end of the bargain, or if Trent Green stumbles or gets hurt. The Chiefs will be good, but I think it's only about 50-50, at best, that they can be great again.

8. Philadelphia Eagles -- Truth be told, I don't even like having them this high. The Eagles are slow starters, for one thing. They've lost three season openers in a row, and haven't started better than 3-2 in a decade. Everyone's talking, of course, about the acquisitions of Terrell Owens and Jevon Kearse this offseason, or about Hugh Douglas returning to the team. But Owens is a walking disaster in team chemistry, Kearse is probably the most injury-prone DE under 30 in the league, and Douglas was useless last season. RBs Correll Buckhalter and Bruce Perry are out for the season. Pro Bowl CBs Bobby Taylor and Troy Vincent are gone. The losses of Marco Coleman and Brandon Whiting offset the gains made by signing Kearse and Douglas, and pass-rush specialist N.D. Kalu is on injured reserve. Jim Johnson can probably make at least some lemonade out of the lemons he's been dealt, but this team is going to sink or swim with Donovan McNabb, again. Look for Philadelphia to win the weak NFC East, but right now, I don't see a Super Bowl in the works.

9. New York Jets -- It was very tempting to pick the Jets over the Patriots, and if you can get someone to offer you decent odds, it's probably not a bad proposition. The Jets' most obvious problem entering the season is that Curtis Martin turns 53 this year and no one else on the roster seems capable of delivering an above-average running game. Chad Pennington has slipped under the radar in discussions of the league's great QBs, though, and the Jets could surprise some people after their disappointing 2003 season.

10. Minnesota Vikings -- Everyone's making a fuss about the RB situation, but any team which has Michael Bennett, Onterrio Smith, and Moe Williams on its roster will always have someone capable of carrying the load. Randy Moss should benefit immensely (a scary thought) from the emphasis on enforcing the illegal contact rule. Defense, I guess, is a question mark, but not the way it is in Kansas City. Barring an injury to Moss, Minnesota has to be the favorite to win the NFC North.

11. Green Bay Packers -- It's just a feeling, and sometimes that doesn't mean anything. But I think this is the year -- something's going to happen. Maybe Brett Favre will get hurt and finally miss a game. Maybe overworked Ahman Green, the only elite player remaining on the offense, will get injured, or just worn down and ineffective. It could be the unstable defense, simply breaking against the Vikings in Week 10 and never recovering. I just have a feeling that Green Bay's luck is bound to run out. The early part of their schedule is very tough, with road games against Carolina and Indianapolis in the first three weeks.

12. Baltimore Ravens -- LT Jonathan Ogden is the most valuable player on the offense, if not the whole team, and losing him for even a game or two could cost the Ravens the AFC North title. I don't understand the logic behind signing Deion Sanders. No one looks sharp after a three-year retirement, and Sanders didn't look too sharp right before his retirement, either. He was slow, and he got picked on. Most players in their late-30s compensate for lost speed with added strength, smarts, and toughness. But Deion has always relied on speed and agility, which is a dicey proposition at 37. Especially when your wheels looked busted at 34.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers -- I know you didn't come here for the conventional wisdom, so here's a risky pick for you. Two years ago, Pittsburgh was four points away from the AFC Championship Game. Last season, Tommy Maddox was awful and, for the first time in Bill Cowher's tenure, there was no running game (31st in yards, 32nd in average per carry). Joey Porter was hurt and the team started 2-6. This year, a favorable early schedule opens the door for the Steelers to pick up some early momentum. Duce Staley is in town to boost the ground game. The receiving corps remains among the best in the game. If the O-line can hold up its end of the bargain, Pittsburgh could make a playoff run.

14. St. Louis Rams -- Lovie Smith is gone, Grant Wistrom is gone, and Aeneas Williams is 36. The Rams defense allowed 4.8 yards per rush last year, and now pass defense could be a weakness, too. Kyle Turley is out for the season, Marc Bulger threw 18 interceptions in his last 10 games (including three in the playoffs against Carolina), and Marshall Faulk is 31. That may not sound old compared to Williams and Deion Sanders, but it's ancient for a running back. Barry Sanders retired at 30. Curtis Martin, who I mentioned earlier is about to turn 53, actually is younger than Faulk. Anyway, the Rams' time has come and gone. Seattle wins the NFC West this year.

15. Dallas Cowboys -- How do you bet against a team coached by Bill Parcells? I don't think anyone knows quite what to make of this group. Last season, the Cowboys made an improbable playoff run, aided largely by a weak NFC East (5-1 division record) that figures to be less than devastating again this year. The but is the Dallas roster. New quarterback, new running back, new go-to receiver. No team succeeds in its first season after such a massive overhaul. Unless, perhaps, Parcells is in charge. I believe they were lucky last year and Parcells knew it. This year, he's trying to rebuild on the run. Dallas could sneak into the postseason again, but it won't get past the first round.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Putting the Bucs in the middle of the pack is the safe bet. On the one hand, you've got a mix of the too-old and the untested, so they could flop big-time, especially in the competitive NFC South. On the other hand, this team is composed almost entirely of Super Bowl XXXVII veterans, so there must be some potential. If George Allen could win with veterans, why can't Jon Gruden? I just think this team has lost its swagger and its balance. The 2004 Bucs just seem like an 8-8 team.

17. Cincinnati Bengals -- Year two of the Marvin Lewis regime brings greatly increased expectations. The problem, of course, is this, from Week 8 of the 2002 season: "From now on, I will pick them last in the NFL every year until Mike Brown hires a GM or sells the team." Not only have I not learned my lesson, apparently my word is meaningless. Having made that admission, this is true: if the Bengals lose their opener by more than 20 or start 0-3, they will remain at the bottom of the power rankings until they have a better record than someone.

18. New Orleans Saints -- Sleeper Super Bowl contender. That doesn't mean the Saints will even make the playoffs -- the NFC South is very tight and could be won by any of its four teams -- but the Saints could bear keeping an eye on. We all know that Deuce McAllister is a stud, but only Saints fans and fantasy football nerds know that Aaron Brooks only threw eight interceptions last season. The defense is the question. If coordinator Rick Venturi can produce some answers, you could see the Saints in late January. It's a big if, but at least there's a question. That's rarified air for the Saints.

19. Washington Redskins -- I didn't intend to rank Washington so highly, but we're really down to the dregs now. Every team left has serious flaws. Washington's is the defense. Don't believe what you see: sure, it looks like there are four big guys in burgundy and gold lined up across from the other team's offense, but it's an illusion -- Washington has no defensive line. The team also kept only four CBs, two of whom are unproven. The offensive line was a weak spot even before standout RT Jon Jansen, who was to protect left-handed Mark Brunell's blind side, was lost for the season. No Joe Gibbs team has ever finished worse than 7-9, so I'll say 7-9 for this club, too.

20. Atlanta Falcons -- If you ever doubted that Jim Mora, Jr. was not the smartest head coaching hire they could have made, consider that he decided to install the "West Coast offense" in Atlanta. Accuracy has never been Michael Vick's greatest strength, but that's perhaps the most important asset for a Walsh Offense quarterback. With Vick's arm strength, he should be throwing downfield. Dare teams to blitz and risk watching Vick burn them with his feet. Atlanta's miserable preseason, and Vick's in particular, reinforces the idea that Mora and his staff perhaps ought to have handled things differently. I expect the Falcons to finish the season higher than this in the rankings.

21. Miami Dolphins -- Maybe we're all taking this too seriously. Miami was probably the best non-playoff team in the NFL last season. Five of their six losses were to playoff teams. In fact, more than half of Miami's losses in 2003 were to teams that played in the conference championship games (Indianapolis, Philadelphia, and New England twice). So what if they lost two of their four Pro Bowlers (Brock Marion and Adewale Ogunleye) and their leading rusher? So what if no one won the quarterback battle this preseason (Jay Fiedler should get the job), and the whole Dolphins organization seems to have lost its focus? Oddly, after writing all that sarcastically, I think I agree with it. Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas are still around, and they're two of the best. Sam Madison and Pat Surtain are shutdown cornerbacks. The defense is a base to build around, and Marty Booker could help put some verve into the offense. What QB wouldn't want Booker, Chris Chambers, and Randy McMichael in the starting lineup? I don't understand why they didn't sign a running back, but it's not inconceivable that the Dolphins could do something -- like win the AFC East -- to surprise people this year. Or, of course, they could just be a bunch of head cases.

22. Oakland Raiders -- Two years ago, they were the NFL's best team, and now they've undergone a complete overhaul. Gone are Charlie Garner, Rod Woodson, Tim Brown (!), and, of course, head coach Bill Callahan. New coach Norv Turner will find someone to run the ball, but I don't know who it is. Justin Fargas, maybe? I don't see an Emmitt Smith or Stephen Davis on the roster. The defense should be better, and the offense should be okay. But I can't see them competing with K.C. or Denver for the division title. They'll probably sweep San Diego.

23. Detroit Lions -- It's been baseball season too long, and I get my cats mixed up. I almost wrote "Detroit Tigers." Anyway, Detroit's football team could contend for the NFC North title this season. I have faith in Steve Mariucci, and the team's young players figure to blossom this season. Joey Harrington, teamed with Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, and Stephen Alexander, ought to have a pretty nice year. Rookie Kevin Jones should resuscitate the Lions' defunct running game. Dre' Bly will be joined by Brock Marion and Fernando Bryant in a secondary that likely will form the heart of Detroit's defense. Jack Christiansen, Yale Lary, and Jim David it isn't, but that's a steady group that should help the Lions protect any leads they can come by. Detroit is probably still a year away, but it would be a mistake to overlook this squad in 2004.

24. Buffalo Bills -- This year's class of new head coaches does not impress me. Re-runs, like Dennis Green and Tom Coughlin, don't count - I mean the new new guys. But other than Lovie Smith, I'm not sold on any of the league's new head coaches. Buffalo's new guy, Mike Mularkey, will have his work cut out for him, trying to make a passing game out of a mediocre offensive line, an underwhelming receiving corps that still misses Peerless Price, and 10-years-past-his-prime Drew Bledsoe. Oh, yeah, he also has to appease star RB Travis Henry by not replacing him with a guy who hasn't played an official down in two seasons. Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Jerry Gray will be responsible for getting the most out of a unit that last season benefited immensely -- from a statistical standpoint -- from the team's No. 31 rank in points scored, which means you pretty much know the run is coming. In Gray's previous two seasons, the Bills finished 27th and 29th in points allowed. The personnel is there, but Gray has a lot to prove.

25. Houston Texans -- Houston will be better this season than its record indicates. After Andre Johnson's successful rookie season, and with Domanick Davis to steady the offense, former No. 1 overall draft choice David Carr may be ready for a breakout year. I think Dom Capers' group is still a year away, and in the vicious AFC South, it may be hard for Houston to post a .500 record, but this team continues to improve and bears keeping an eye on.

26. Jacksonville Jaguars -- There's reason to be concerned that Byron Leftwich hasn't progressed as quickly as his coaches had hoped. Leftwich has all the tools, and Jacksonville could be very competitive this year, but in the power-crowded AFC South, I can't see Jack Del Río's squad carving out a playoff niche for itself. Rebuilding isn't pretty. Tony Boselli was exposed to expansion draft in 2001. Kevin Hardy left for the Cowboys in 2002. Coughlin was fired in 2003. Now Mark Brunell and Tony Brackens are gone, too. Fred Taylor is injury-prone and Jimmy Smith's production is fading with age. Last season was supposed to be a re-building year, but the team didn't make any big moves this offseason. You don't have to sign splashy stars like Warren Sapp and Deion Sanders. Different coaches use different methods. Chuck Noll drafted a core group of future Hall of Famers and watched them grow into champions. Jimmy Johnson did the same thing in Dallas 20 years later. Gibbs brought in proven veterans. Bill Belichick mixes young and old, as long as they're hard-working and team-oriented. I'm all for keeping a group of players together, but Del Río should still be bringing his own guys in, and you have to make some kind of splash in free agency if you want to go from 5-11 to contender. I don't see it.

27. San Francisco 49ers -- People are talking about this being the worst team in the NFL. I'm not sure why. Last year the 49ers went 7-9. Jeff Garcia's gone, but Tim Rattay looked better last year anyway. Garrison Hearst is gone, but he's 80 years old and Kevan Barlow is ready to take over. Terrell Owens is gone, but sometimes it helps to get rid of the center of attention. I don't see San Francisco being a major factor in January, but I don't see them finishing 2-14, either. Dennis Erickson still sucks.

28. Chicago Bears -- Smith, I've already mentioned, is my favorite of the league's new head coaches. He inherits a team with a lot of problems. Teams have figured out once-promising MLB Brian Urlacher. RBs Thomas Jones and Anthony Thomas have struggled with consistency. QB Rex Grossman is unproven, and with Booker gone in the trade that brought Ogunleye to Chicago (a steal), Justin Gage may be his go-to guy this year. Despite my faith in Smith, I see Chicago at the bottom of its division in 2004.

29. New York Giants -- Kurt Warner and Ron Dayne. That's what the Giants showed us in the preseason, and you'll pardon me for being less than thrilled. Coughlin is a nice choice to take over a program that dramatically underachieved last year, but Warner isn't going to lead a revolution, and he and fellow QB Eli Manning were New York's only high-profile additions this offseason. They'll finish at the bottom of the weak NFC East this season, but give it time.

30. Cleveland Browns -- At this point in the list, I don't even like talking about the teams. I should write these things out of order so I don't get all depressed at the end. I still kind of like Jeff Garcia, and I don't like Kellen Winslow, Jr., but I am curious to see him in action.

31. San Diego Chargers -- No team with LaDainian Tomlinson can be the worst in the league. Giving Drew Brees the starting QB position was the right move; he's a young guy who deserves another chance, and I'm not a big believer in throwing rookies (like first-round draft choice Philip Rivers) into the fire. Marty Schottenheimer will lose his job at the end of the season, but I'm not sure it's really fair to blame him. Just as a point of interest, backup QB Doug Flutie is 19 years older than his teammate Rivers.

32. Arizona Cardinals -- They were the worst last season, and by golly, they'll be the worst again this year. If there was any doubt, the spate of injuries this preseason erased it. Denny Green is a fine coach, but I'm not sure what his logic was in reuniting Emmitt Smith (Emmitt, if you're reading this, please retire) and Troy Hambrick, who fought over carries in Dallas. With neither clearly ahead of the other in Arizona, I don't think they'll be best buddies this year, either. And that's the most interesting part of Arizona's season right there.

AFC Playoffs

Wildcard Games: DENVER def. Jets, Tennessee def. BALTIMORE
Divisional Games: INDIANAPOLIS def. Tennessee, NEW ENGLAND def. Denver
AFC Championship Game: INDIANAPOLIS def. New England

NFC Playoffs

Wildcard Games: SEATTLE def. Tampa Bay, MINNESOTA def. Dallas
Divisional Games: CAROLINA def. Minnesota, Seattle def. PHILADELPHIA
NFC Championship Game: CAROLINA def. Seattle

Super Bowl XXXIX

Indianapolis def. Carolina

Happy fall of 2004, everyone. I hate my playoff predictions.