Notre Dame, Navy, FIU, FAU
Before digging into the final two conferences of this tour around Division I-A football, I'll back up and tend to the final four independents in Division I-A. To say that there are four independents is pushing it a bit, actually. Florida International and Florida Atlantic are not full-fledged members of the division as yet. Hence, I have no predictions for those two schools. They still play a majority Division I-AA schedule, but will become Sun Belt schools next season.
Notre Dame 5-6 (Last year's prediction: 6-6; Actual: 5-7)
Third-year head coach Ty Willingham overachieved in his first season at Notre Dame. And, because of this, the expectations for a return to national dominance and a top-five finish every season seem to have gotten too high.
There are actually Irish fans that believe Willingham should be out after this season if things don't start to improve. Word to the wise Irish follower: things won't improve markedly this season. Wait for year five, for crying out loud, when you've seen a cycle of recruits, kids brought in for his system, to play his way and only his way. If, after that, the program seems to be mired in mediocrity, personally, I'll be pleased, but won't be irate about the firing of the coach.
Naval Academy 5-6 (7-5; 8-4)
The last bastion of the nearly dead triple option offense, Navy has fared well in recent years under third-year coach Paul Johnson. But with QB Craig Candeto gone this year, Navy will struggle a few times, lose some games they might not have recently. However, they'll win the game that matters most to them.
Big 10
For me, the Big 10 is a bit mysterious. Maybe it's because I didn't grow up in awe of the Big 10. Maybe it's because what looks like great teams seem to always under-perform. Or, maybe it's because the conference is so well balanced, nearly any team can knock off another.
Whatever it is, I tender these predictions with this proviso, which is a bit stronger than with most of the other conferences: I could be completely wrong about how good as many as eight of these teams are, and how they'll finish. I am confident in my prediction of the top-two teams and the bottom team of the conference. After that, it's not a coin-toss every week, but it's darn close to it.
Purdue 11-0 (10-2; 9-3)
There's something I like about the Boilermakers this season. Things, actually. Start with senior QB Kyle Orton. Strong arm, mobile enough, and crafty, Orton enters this year as the undisputed best QB in the conference. His job is made easier by throwing to one of the top-five receivers in the league, senior Taylor Stubblefield. And then, add to that junior running back Jerome Void, behind an experienced and physical offensive line, and Purdue should be able to score some points. Will they really win it all? I think so, but I don't think I'd ever put money on a team coached by Joe Tiller.
Michigan 10-1 (12-0; 10-2)
I expected a national title from the Wolverines a year ago, but a disastrous road trip to Oregon's Autzen Stadium put a chink in that idea, and a road trip to Iowa killed it completely. The Wolverines have the most talented team in the Big 10. They could win it all. But with their hopes resting on sophomore Matt Gutierrez at quarterback, and the running back still undetermined, it could be a shaky road to the Big 10 crown. Worse, that road goes through Columbus, OH and Lafayette, IN.
Ohio State 8-3 (8-4; 10-2)
There's no knowing how long the Jim Tressel-inspired run will last. But last year, just as in their national title year, the Buckeyes won games that lesser teams find ways to lose. I think a large part of that magic was in underrated QB Craig Krenzel, gone to sit on an NFL bench or on a practice squad. The Buckeyes will still win games they probably ought not, but I think the magical run stops this season, and worst of all, I figure on a Wolverine win at the Horseshoe.
Penn State 7-4 (9-3; 3-9)
Call it nostalgia. Call me overly optimistic. Call me stupid. I think Joe Paterno, the coach of coaches, turns things around in Happy Valley this year. Still nowhere near a Big 10 title, but nothing nearly as disappointing as the Nittany Lions suffered a year ago.
Minnesota 7-4 (7-5; 9-3)
With one of the top one-two punches at running back with junior Marion Barber and sophomore Laurence Maroney, expect a lot of running from Glen Mason's Gophers. Also expect back-to-back weekend trips to Michigan (at Ann Arbor, at East Lansing) to be the centerpiece to their season. Win out, they could contend for a conference crown. Lose out, and it's the typical season in Gopher Land. Go with the odds.
Michigan State 6-5 (5-7; 8-4)
Can John L Smith repeat his performance from a year ago with all but six starters returning? I bet not. Still, he's a good coach. Michigan State is a decent program, and all is not entirely lost.
Wisconsin 6-5 (10-2; 7-5)
The Badgers feel like a program in something of a decline. Only problem with that is their peak was five years ago, and they've not looked or felt the same since. A two-year blip on the radar? I'm beginning to think so.
Iowa 6-5 (5-7; 9-3)
You've noticed by now that my predictions on nearly all the Big 10 teams were way off. I admit that underrating Kirk Ferentz is something I may have done, but I think that running back Fred Russell's importance was also underrated in the Hawkeyes' run of the last two seasons. He's a Miami Dolphin now.
Northwestern 4-7 (1-11; 6-6)
Seven wins are possible from the Wildcats. I'm figuring against.
Illinois 2-9 (10-2; 1-11)
The Illini sucker punched me last year. I like them, so I hope they prove me wrong again this year, but don't expect it.
Indiana 1-10 (2-10; 2-10)
Only one of the worst teams in all of Division I-A football a year ago.
Pac-10
After a long period of being ignored, the Pac-10 is alive again, and it's all thanks to Pete Carroll and Southern California.
Southern California 12-0 (8-4; 12-1)
So what if Mike Williams doesn't play this year? The Trojans have had one of the top recruiting classes in the country three years running. A national title repeat is a tough accomplishment, but the Trojans have the horses (so to speak) to get it done.
Washington State 9-2 (4-8; 9-3)
Having believed the program would be left adrift in the post-Mike Price era, I severely underestimated the Cougars a year ago. The Cougars were a physically tougher team under second-year head coach Bill Doba. New faces at most positions, but expect the unexpected.
California 9-2 (2-10; 7-6)
The Golden Bears will attempt to replace the touchdown cry of "Leinart to Williams" with "(junior QB Aaron) Rodgers to (senior WR Geoff) McArthur."
Oregon 7-4 (8-4; 8-4)
The Ducks still can't defend the pass. It will cost them games they shouldn't lose.
Oregon State 6-5 (9-3; 7-5)
Winning comes much harder without standout running back Steven Jackson.
UCLA 6-5 (7-5; 6-6)
Rebuilding a program? Follow this rule: establish consistency first. Then win. Right now, the Bruins have neither in as large a portion as they'd like.
Arizona State 4-7 (11-1; 5-7)
The Sun Devils fooled me, just as Illinois did, into thinking they had some players. I understand now that neither do.
Stanford 1-10 (2-9; 4-7)
The Cardinal could be better than I think. They'll need to win games that I don't think they can.
Arizona 1-10 (1-11; 2-10)
New head coach Mike Stoops will develop something here, there's little doubt. But, the program was so devastatingly bad in every way, it will take time and a couple years to recover.
***
There you have it. One hundred and seventeen predictions for the coming year. I'll have been way off on at least 10 teams, if history is any guide. And seven of them will be in these two conferences.
Now, I'm ready for some FOOTBALL!
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