Cy Johan: AL Cy Young Breakdown

In 1956, then Commissioner of Major League Baseball Ford Frick's proposition for a most valuable pitcher award was narrowly approved by the Baseball Writers' Association of America. The award, which was named for the recently deceased Cy Young, was the result of Frick's frustration concerning the Most Valuable Player award; specifically, pitchers were generally ignored in the vote.

Frick's efforts have not gone unappreciated. Just ask Johan Santana, ace of the Minnesota Twins, who stands in the center of the American League Cy Young race. And, if the current Baseball Writers get the vote right, Santana's name will be added to a list of past winners that include the best hurlers of the past 50 years.

Santana leads the American League in strikeouts by 37 over second place Pedro Martinez, and is on pace for 264. His 3.13 ERA ranks him second behind Tim Hudson. Opponents bat just .202 against Santana: that's tops in the league among starters, and 23 points better than second place. He also boasts one of the best winning percentages in the majors with a 14-6 record.

There's more. Since the All-Star Break, Santana is 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA. Per start, Santana is averaging nine strikeouts and over seven innings pitched since the All-Star Break, and opponents are hitting an absurd .157 against him. In August, Santana has beaten the Red Sox, A's, Yankees, and most recently, the heavy-hitting Texas Rangers at Cape Canaveral-inspired Ameriquest Field. Against Boston, he out-dueled Pedro Martinez; versus Oakland, his victim was Tim Hudson; Mike Mussina and the Yankees could not even give him a game; and in Texas, he shamed 15-game winner Kenny Rogers, giving up just one run in eight innings, striking out 11.

Such dominance usually cannot go unnoticed; but with Santana, for the most part, it has. Sure, Santana is mentioned as a Cy Young candidate, but as the house favorite? Not quite.

Santana has factors working against him. First, he plays in Minnesota. The Twins garner little national attention through no fault of their own. They play in arguably the weakest division in all of baseball, the AL Central. As of Friday, their record of 71-56 was good enough for an eight-game lead over Cleveland and Chicago, two teams with sub-.500 records.

The Twins also don't have Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Pedro Martinez, or Albert Pujols. They lack a baseball superstar -- an icon -- that draws fans and commands attention. The Twins top hitter? Depends on your definition. Corey Koskie leads the team in home runs, and Jacque Jones holds the top spot in RBIs. Someone named Lew Ford is hitting .305, the highest average on the team.

Meanwhile, the Twins pitching staff, with the exception of Brad Radke, is made up of relative unknowns. As is the stellar Twins bullpen, made up of lynchpins Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, and J.C. Romero.

Plus, Santana himself was relatively unknown amongst mainstream baseball fans prior to this season. In the race for the Cy Young, Santana must deal with well-known stalwarts Mark Mulder, Pedro Martinez, Tim Hudson, Kenny Rogers, and Curt Schilling. But a look at their statistics show that Santana shines greater than the rest:

2004 AL Cy Young Stats

Santana compares favorably in all measures of pitching dominance, especially strikeouts, batting average against, and WHIP, a measure of how often opponents reach base. Only Tim Hudson has a better ERA, but Hudson's other paltry numbers of innings pitched and strikeouts make him the least likely of the above to actually win the Cy Young, other than Kenny Rogers.

Add in Santana's clutch performances in the last month against the best teams and pitchers of the American League, and not choosing Santana becomes an exercise in ignorance.

On July 16, the Twins dropped their fifth game in a row, a 12-3 embarrassment at the hands of the mighty Kansas City Royals. Brad Radke, the veteran Twin usually asked to stop the bleeding in dire situations as this, was the losing pitcher that day. That night, the Twins trailed the White Sox by a half game in the standings.

The next night, Johan Santana threw eight innings, struck out nine batters, gave up one hit, and were it not for Henry Blanco's throwing error in the eighth inning, he would have thrown a shutout. The Twins won, 4-1, something they would do in 14 of their next 17 games.

Such performances have been the benchmark for Johan Santana this season. And in the past, at least, such performances earn the performer hardware: namely, the Cy Young Award.

Or maybe even the MVP? Ford Frick would caution us to be content with the former.

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