The Mountain West Conference and Conference-USA are each studies in the strength of mid-major conferences. The Mountain West has been considered a relatively strong conference in Division I-A football, with the likes of Colorado State, Brigham Young, and Air Force being the league's stalwarts. The conference, after all, is only five years old.
Still, after the Great Conference Fiasco of Summer 2003, the Mountain West was the only mid-major that didn't lose a team to another conference. In fact, the Mountain West got strong for the season of 2005, adopting Texas Christian, one of C-USA's better teams in recent years.
C-USA, on the other hand, is undertaking a huge facelift come next year. Louisville, recent addition South Florida, and Cincinnati are giving C-USA the shaft and heading to the Big East in 2005. Army is leaving the conference in an effort to regain some status. Better to be an independent, the academy reasoned, than to be at the bottom of some random conference affiliation's pecking order.
In response, C-USA raided the WAC, ripping off four teams wholesale. Of course, they stole away with the WAC's weakest half. And so, which is better? To be a mid-major with defectors apparently strong enough to move to the next level, or to be a strong enough conference to keep its own members through the tumult? You decide.
Mountain West
Utah 10-1 (Last year's prediction: 8-3; Actual: 9-2)
Between QB Alex Smith's arm and head coach Urban Meyer's scheme, the Utes should have little problem winning the Mountain West two years running. The problem for Utah boosters and administrators will be keeping Meyer from heading for another opening (Illinois, perhaps? Potentially UCLA?).
Colorado State 7-4 (9-3; 7-5)
It seemed like the Bradlee Van Pelt era might last forever in Fort Collins, but alas, all things come to an end. There will be some rebuilding and adjustment to be done, but if RB and former Colorado Buffalo Marcus Houston can stay healthy and sustain the talent he flashed signs of possessing in a Buffs uni, the Rams should be okay this season.
Air Force 6-5 (10-2; 7-5)
The Falcons are the best of the Armed Forces Academies most years, but after a disappointing '03, Air Force is in something of a retooling mode, claiming a "return to basics." It should be another mediocre year, which is actually quite decent when you're talking about Armed Forces Academies.
San Diego State 5-6 (2-10; 6-6)
The Aztecs are right on the precipice. Returning most of their defense of a year ago could be good, could be bad. Coach Tom Craft has done some good things at SDSU, but the program remains, ultimately, middle of the pack, in conference, and nationally.
Brigham Young 4-7 (4-8; 4-8)
How could this have happened? Former head coach Lavell Edwards' Cougars never looked this bad. Current head coach Gary Crowton may not be head coach beyond the '04 season if the Cougars follow last year's four wins with only four more wins. If it looked as if things were getting better, Crowton could save his job. Trouble is, last year's edition looked pretty bad, and this year's edition looks at least just as bad.
New Mexico 3-8 (9-3; 8-4)
True, most national prognosticators pick the Lobos to finish much higher in the conference. But, opening against Washington State, Texas Tech, and at Oregon State is no way to start a season, unless you're in the Sun Belt conference digging around for dollars. Throw in an upset loss to BYU and losses to teams they should lose to, and you have a pretty wretched season in Albuquerque.
Nevada-Las Vegas 2-9 (5-7; 6-6)
I visited Las Vegas for the first time this summer. How on earth does anyone prepare for a game every Saturday? And, have you seen the UNLV campus? It's located a mere five blocks from the strip. A hop, skip, and jump from the gates of hell. So, head coach John Robinson must be commended for keeping his team something like on-task, but expect a pretty bad scuffle this season, with Robinson's retirement from the game to follow.
Wyoming 2-9 (3-9; 4-8)
The Cowboys will struggle in head coach Joe Glenn's second year.
Conference-USA
Texas Christian 10-1 (12-0; 11-1)
TCU wants to leave the C-USA on top. Of course, they'll have many a departing partner with whom to contend. The Horned Frogs have the league's best defense under head coach Gary Patterson, and, if they stay healthy, won't mind leaving the league with a loss to Southern Miss, because they'll have already wrapped up the title.
Louisville 8-3 (9-3; 9-3)
How weak will C-USA look when it's top two teams are no longer members in '05? Pretty weak. UofL hasn't won the conference in a few years, and one wonders how the near-defection of head coach Bobby Petrino to Auburn will wear on the team. The Cardinals have a tough team to beat, and could be undefeated when they travel to Coral Gables to take on the Hurricanes. It all sort of falls apart after that.
Southern Mississippi 7-4 (8-4; 9-3)
Look for a tough October to trip up the Eagles, looking to repeat as conference champs. Not this year. But, with the weakened league, Southern Miss seem well positioned to become the league's dynastic champs.
Houston 7-4 (3-9; 7-5)
Sophomore QB Kevin Kolb looks to be another in a history (if spotted) of great college quarterbacks from the University of Houston. The Cougars have a tough non-conference schedule, but should be able to pull an upset or two in conference and finish a decent season.
Memphis 7-4 (5-7; 8-4)
Featuring the best QB you've never heard of (aside from a MAC QB or two), senior Danny Wimprine leads the Tigers, and they will score points. The question will be whether they can stop anyone. With six new starters on defense, there will be some bad days.
South Florida 5-6 (5-5; 7-4)
Without a running attack or a steady quarterback, the Bulls have been fortunate to do as well as they have. Still, in their final year in the C-USA, losing might be something they should get used to. They look to be sitting near the bottom of the Big East for some time to come.
Cincinnati 3-8 (7-5; 5-7)
Senior QB Gino Guidugli goes out with something of a cat's stretch as the Bearcats welcome new head coach Mark Dantonio to the fold. Expect a long final year in the C-USA for the Bearcats.
Alabama-Birmingham 3-8 (4-8; 5-7)
The Blazers could be better than three wins, but their only scheduling break is that they miss playing Louisville this season.
Tulane 3-8 (6-6; 5-7)
A weak defense left the Green Wave on the wrong end of games they could have, should have won. Expect more of the same.
East Carolina 1-10 (5-7; 1-11)
If only there was something good to be taken from last year's traumatically terrible season. Alas, it appears things may only stay the same in Greenville.
Army 0-11 (2-11; 0-13)
Yes, the Army Academy went out and hired retired head coach Bobby Ross from his fishing boat. That's where the optimism ends, though. Maybe next year, when the Cadets can schedule programs that are closer to their athletic style and level, Coach Ross and the Cadets will show some improvement.
Coming up next: The final installment of the predictions series: Big 10 and Pac-10! Stay tuned!
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