College Football Preview: The SEC

The SEC is one of the strongest conferences around. No one needs me to tell them that, if they pay any attention to college football, anyway. Some of the nation's best athletes reside and ultimately go to college in the South. Indeed, because the SEC as a whole is so strong (with a couple of lingering exceptions), a type of parity has overtaken the conference, especially in the post-Steve Spurrier Florida downturn era.

Nick Saban and Mark Richt have been the coaches who have most profited from the end of the Spurrier era in the SEC, and their colleges, LSU and Georgia have done all right, too. Still, since the end of Spurrier, no one leaves the SEC unbeaten anymore.

To me, that's okay, but it begs the question: is the conference so even now that the random upset must happen every week, or has the talent once held aside mostly for Florida been diluted, flung far afield, leaving the conference ... dare I say it, mediocre? To be sure, perhaps mediocrity, er ... parity, has overtaken even the ranks of NCAA Division 1-A. Damned NFL.

SEC East

A quick reminder: I am, as anyone, just winging it here. That's all any preseason predictions can ever be. I like my predictions a lot of the time. Some, I'm kind of iffy. The SEC is one of those conferences that escapes me from time to time. So, don't put any money on anything based on my -- statistically speaking -- wild guesses. Also, I'll show you my predictions from last year, and the actual outcome for each team, so you can see just how ludicrous a venture this really is. (Doesn't mean it's not fun, though.)

Georgia 10-1 (Last year's prediction: 9-3; Actual: 10-2)

Georgia will be just fine, despite health problems, if Mark Richt can do two things: 1) Leave D.J. Shockley on the bench; 2) Find a running back to do what Musa Smith did for the Bulldogs last year. Sure, Shockley is fun to watch, but bringing him in limits David Greene's ability to set a rhythm and really rip apart defensive secondaries. Shockley has his moments, but in reality, both quarterbacks suffer in this two-QB system that Richt has had to devise.

Florida 8-3 (9-3; 8-4)

Ron Zook is under the gun in any number of ways in the Swamp. Chris Leak showed signs of being a special sort of player last fall, once he was given his opportunity, but the offense has been changed. How this limits or suits Leak will be a solid predictor of the program's success this year. Zook can recruit with the best of them. But, his in-game management has been shaky when it needed to be better, and he just looks like a guy feeling the pressure of every play. That's not good. Not there. Not with his predecessor on a golf course, fielding calls from every Gator booster since the day he left the Washington Redskins.

South Carolina 7-4 (4-8; 5-7)

Lou Holtz will right the ship this year. If he doesn't, well ... one can wonder forever just how much his coaching legacy will be affected not by his coaching talent, but by the name of the university at which he fared so well.

Tennessee 6-5 (10-2; 10-2)

Maybe I've gone overboard in my declaration of the fall of Philip Fulmer. Maybe. The Volunteers don't have a quarterback. They have a decent stable of running backs, but no one truly outstanding. The Vols have been just this side of lifeless, even in having a good season, the last two years. They'll likely be better than I predict, record-wise, but I'm betting that several wins will feel like losses, and the future in Knoxville will grow dimmer with each game.

Vanderbilt 4-7 (1-11; 2-10)

I think Vandy isn't necessarily on the rise, but I think they benefit from maturation, and really, how much worse can things get for the Commodores? I'm guessing that they've seen the worst of things for right now, and will pull a couple upsets along the way.

Kentucky 3-8 (4-8; 6-6)

Coach Rich Brooks is discovering the hard way two things about University of Kentucky: 1) It's a basketball school, first and foremost; 2) Guy Morriss did him no favors. None.

SEC West

The West is a particularly interesting case of the perils of parity. Each team in the division, aside from Mississippi, has had their shot at the SEC Title game in the dozen years of playing the game. It doesn't get much more even than that.

Auburn 9-2 (11-1; 7-5)

These Tigers caught everyone's eye last year, by being disastrous when so much had been expected. Expectations are considerably lower, with fair reason. Their linebacking corps is depleted, and Tommy Tuberville is likely still plotting as vengeful an exit plan as is humanly possible after the beyond shoddy treatment the university's president applied. Still, I think this team can pull a few surprises, drop a few games it should, head on to the SEC Championship Game, and poof! The Riverboat Gambler pulls a disappearing act on game day.

LSU 8-3 (11-1; 11-1)

I may have had the record right, but I had them losing to the Auburn Tigers, and not getting a shot at the SEC, never mind the national championship. Or whomever. Regardless, LSU was a little fortunate a few times (as any champion must be), but I think the luck runs out more times than last year. The offense will struggle, and the defense lost several playmakers from last year's title team.

Arkansas 6-5 (7-5; 8-4)

The Razorbacks still have Matt Jones, the least sleek-looking athlete I think I've ever seen. Still, a tough year for the Hogs and Houston Nutt.

Alabama 6-5 (5-8; 4-9)

Look for improved coaching from second year man Mike Shula, and better play from quarterback Brodie Croyle. Despite the probation and scholarships cuts, this team will surprise. The Tide are a tough bunch, and will shock some teams throughout the season.

Mississippi 4-7 (9-3; 9-3)

Was Eli Manning the best QB ever at Ole Miss? Maybe so. Certainly, he'll be missed.

Mississippi State 3-8 (2-10; 2-10)

New head coach Sylvester Croom has quite the mess to clean up in Starkville. Things will improve, but improvement has a tendency to be a long, slow process.

Next up: the Big 12 and the WAC. Stay tuned!