This week, we're previewing the SEC and ACC. In four days, I will be in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. So let me pound out these previews so I can hurry up and go back to laying on the couch with a silly grin of anticipation on my face. I will tell all of you about my trip when I return. On a side note, I've decided it's pointless (and taxing) to try to predict the precise final record of each team. On to the picks.
SEC East
1. Florida - Nobody seems to have noticed, but Florida has become the anti-Ohio State. They lose games miraculously (see last year vs. Miami, Florida State, and to a lesser extent, Mississippi), and this is the year they start winning those, in addition to holding on to Georgia's number.
2. Georgia - Texas East ... always good, never quite good enough to win it all. They only get one of their four toughest opponents at home. With 10 outstanding returning starters on offense, though, they may only need to pull out the Cocktail Party against Florida to make the rest of the schedule manageable.
3. Tennessee - Only five starters return on offense, and four on defense, but two quality quarterbacks -- Rick Clausen and highly-touted C.J. Leak -- should help. I think were all hoping to hear a lot of big things from the third-string quarterback, a sophomore named Jim Bob Cooter. You read that right.
4. Vanderbilt - Okay, I got burned last year picking Duke this high (although picking Northwestern to shoot up the Big 10 standings worked out nicely), but I can't resist anticipating good things for a team that returns 23 starters. They lost heartbreakers to Old Miss and Georgia Tech last year, had respectable losses Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Kentucky, and have the best defensive end (Jovan Haye) in the SEC. Six teams on the schedule are beatable.
5. Kentucky - I would characterize the upcoming year for Kentucky as being a typical Kentucky football year. Respectable, but not particularly competitive and nowhere near the league heavies. With nine defensive starters returning, quarterback Shane Boyd (I miss Jared Lorenzen already) must move the ball.
6. South Carolina - Is Lou Holtz officially not a legendary coach anymore? How much longer is he going to be able to eat free in any restaurant in Columbia? The hot seat must come eventually. Still, defensive ends Moe Thompson and George Gause may end up bookend all-SEC selections.
SEC West
1. LSU - The entire "LSU or USC?" debate is still simmering even today, and it's more than possible those two teams will get to answer that question in the Orange Bowl this year. Nick Saban may be soon headed for the "genius" title as one of the best coaches at building game plans designed around his players' strengths and his recruiting skill.
2. Auburn - The running game was supposed to tear up the country last year, but didn't. The defense was supposed to tear up the country last year, but didn't and has now largely graduated. Still, that should be good enough for second in a watered-down SEC West, as the pendulum of power in the SEC swings back east.
3. Mississippi State - No joke. Sylvester Croom will make huge strides in his very first season in Starkville, and get the keys to the city. Why not? Seven games at home, a manageable non-conference schedule to build on, and an ax to grind that will culminate with the sweetest upset: November 6th at Alabama.
4. Alabama - When will it be understood that the only Shula that could coach worth a damn is named Don? Mike is doing a splendid job of turning the Tide into the Crimson Bengals. Plenty of experience returns, but from a team that got worse as the year went on, culminating in a double-digit loss to possibly the only other school with more football history and pride then they have, Hawaii. The home loss to Northern Illinois (who turned out to be the third-best team in the MAC West last year) also sticks in my mind and craw.
5. Ole Miss - Quite simply, they're going to sink like a stone without Eli Manning, even with a good offensive line returning, as only one skill position starter on offense returns. Bank on it: Michael Spurlock will prove to be no Matt Leinart, they're going to lose the Egg Bowl, and their November 13th game at Arkansas will be the most fun game of the year, featuring at least 10 turnovers.
6. Arkansas - While Ole Miss loses its franchise quarterback while some of the other pieces remain, the only returning offensive starter for the Hogs is the franchise quarterback, Matt Jones. Expect him to be frustrated a lot and essentially think "run-first" more and more as the year goes on. Only four return on defense, as well. I picked big things for them last year, and they started off making me look good by beating Texas, but then went into a freefall.
ACC
1. Florida State - They're baaaaack. After showing shocking signs of vulnerability the last couple of years, we can now return to the days where the Clemsons and Louisvilles of the world have no prayer against them. The offense, not to put too fine a point on it, will be the most high-scoring and smooth-running in the country, putting last year's debacles against Clemson and Georgia Tech far in the rear-view mirror. If they can survive at Miami to start the year, it's hard to see them losing elsewhere.
2. Clemson - In a pass-happy league like this one, it helps greatly that Clemson is the only elite ACC team in contention that, besides Florida State, returns an elite quarterback, and I would not be surprised to see Charlie Whitehurst edge out Chris Rix for ACC Quarterback of the Year. It also helps that they are coming out of a season where they built huge amounts of momentum, knocking off Florida and Florida State, and coach Tommy Bowden pulled one of the fastest, greatest goat-to-hero jobs in the history of college football.
3. Miami - They're not baaaaack. No one seems to notice, but the Hurricanes seriously faded from their typical form last year, winning six games by eight points or less and looking terrible in losses against Tennessee and Virginia Tech. They have overrated quarterback Brock Berlin to try to build around, but only 10 of 22 starters return from both sides of the ball.
4. Virginia - A lot of ACC team are auditioning new quarterbacks this year, but a few are as exciting as Marques Hagans. He has the potential to make people forget about Matt Schaub in a big hurry. Defensively, they have the luxury of boasting the best front-seven in the ACC.
5. N.C. State - This team is very similar to Virginia, with a new quarterback and a talented defense. What makes the Wolfpack the worse of the two is Virginia doesn't have the "can he come back from the serious injury?" questions N.C. State has with running back T.A. McLendon and tackle Chris Colmer. Likely starting quarterback Jay Davis is, well, no Marques Hagans.
6. Wake Forest - I'm still trying to figure out how a team that handily defeated North Carolina State and Clemson would be so handily defeated by Georgia Tech and North Carolina. At least seven starters return from each side of the ball, and if they can put last year behind them, this team has darkhorse potential.
7. Maryland - Virginia, part III: Big offensive questions to answer and talented defense (particularly the linebacking corps). The few returning starters on offense do not excite, nor do the potential of the newcomers. This team could end up with the worst offense and the best defense in the ACC. They have to get Florida State out of their heads.
8. Georgia Tech - Like Wake Forest, the Yellow Jackets are another team coming off impressive wins (Auburn, North Carolina State, one-point loss at Florida State) and bizarre losses (BYU and Duke). The difference this year may be the schedule, as North Carolina could prove to be the only winnable road game.
9. Virginia Tech - It's tempting to remember last year's depantsing of Miami and put them a great deal higher, but we have seen how teams like Washington and Alabama have responded to offseason turmoil (not well) and I can't hold out much hope for Virginia Tech to fare better with only four starters returning on offense and five on defense.
10. North Carolina - To put it harshly, things won't improve in Tar Heel country until John Bunting is no longer head coach. He recruits like nobody's business, bringing in class after class of stars, and turns them into losers. Quarterback Darian Durant is good enough to avenge last year's loss to Duke.
11. Duke - The Blue Devils should've taught me last year not to put so much stock in returning starters (but I still can't resist), as I predicted they would get a minor bowl with all starters back on offense and 10 on defense. Instead, they pretty much stunk as usual, and now a lot of that experience is gone. Will I ever learn?
Stay tuned for more college previews in upcoming editions!
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