Let's assume, for the moment, that you have a 12-team league and you're sitting in that live draft chat room and, lo and behold, your team pops up dead last in the draft order. Keep quiet and don't chat about it, just pull up this article in your browser, next to your ESPN cheat sheet, and smile.
You will learn to embrace unlucky number 12.
Hold your head up high if you get the last pick. You can still win and win big. I'm going to let you know what to do if you end up with that last spot. This article assumes that the other owners, who pick ahead of you, know what they're doing.
If someone takes Kurt Warner or Marshall Faulk in the first-round, then you may as well not read the rest of this. You are obviously in a league with the deaf and the dumb, so you've pretty much got victory in hand. But, let's stick with knowledgeable owners.
The oft-used strategy, in most fantasy leagues, is to secure the two best running backs that you can before drafting at another position. Even at the 12-spot, do not deviate from this strategy. One superstar running back will not get it done. But two quality starters will.
Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ahman Green, and Jamal Lewis are all gone. There's nothing you can do about it. So, make it work for you. At the 12-spot, you will get two picks: one right after the other. Do not panic and grab a stud receiver. A stud and a dud at the RB and WR position is a mistake.
At this point, you would likely have featured backs like Travis Henry, Dominick Davis, Kevan Barlow, and Rudi Johnson available. You must take two of those four with your first and second pick. Do not waste your picks with backs like Stephen Davis and Duce Staley.
Davis will end up sharing duties with Deshaun Foster. Jerome Bettis will take some carries away from Duce, as well. Stay away from Brian Westbrook, Quentin Griffin, Warrick Dunn, and Thomas Jones. All are either committee backs or fighting for starting spots.
Let "Mister Number One Pick Owner," who, at this point, is bragging about getting Holmes, deal with trying to figure out which committee back he has to pick.
On the return trip to your third and fourth pick, you will have many receivers to choose from. No, you will not get Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, or Marvin Harrison. But, let me ask you this...
Who would you rather have as your set of trips?
Harrison, Jerry Porter, and Dane Looker or Santana Moss, Laveranues Coles, and Deion Branch?
At the 12-spot, your receiving core could look just like the second option.
Obviously, every draft is different and someone may want Coles sooner than later. That's fine. The issue is to secure your running backs first, and then secure two receivers on the next go around. It will work out just fine.
Quarterbacks are always around. There are 32 teams in the NFL and I never saw a QB go zero for the season. Half the time they, are handing the ball of to a back, rather than throwing, so it doesn't really matter if Peyton Manning, Daunte Culpepper, and Donovan McNabb are gone. You can still snap up Jake Delhomme, Tom Brady, or Chad Pennington.
In fact, I highly recommend you look for Pennington. For most of last season, a fractured wrist sidelined the veteran and all but killed his fantasy value. However, a healthy Pennington can be as accurate as Manning. I would start Pennington every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Well, I guess just once on Sunday or maybe a Monday. But then it could be a Thursday ... oh hell, you know what I mean.
I will mention this, only as a reminder. None of this will guarantee a victory, but it is the best strategy for the owner in the last spot. Don't count on this, but keep in the back of your mind that injuries happen, especially to the superstars. I would never wish injury on a player, in real life. That would be sadistic. This is fantasy and, after all, is just a game.
Nonetheless, injuries are inevitable in the NFL and, if it must happen, pray that it's the other guy who has to hit the waiver wire. I happen to love Priest on the bench with a pulled hamstring, as long as he isn't on my team.
One more thing ... we know the NFL really stands for the National Felon League. I wouldn't be too upset that you didn't get a chance to get a player like Jamal Lewis. Lewis is facing a slew of drug charges. His trial is set for November 1st. You can't gain yards in a federal prison.
Quick tips:
You will need to secure your tight ends. Here are a couple of potential studs who may be available after you have your backs and receivers safely in hand…
TE Daniel Graham - New England
Projection: 43 receptions, 465 yards, 5 TD
TE Freddie Jones - Arizona
Projection: 45 receptions, 450 yards, 4 TD
With the NFL's crackdown on defensive holding and pass interference, it really won't matter what defense you choose or defensive back you pick. Everyone will spend the first few weeks trying to adjust to not being able to even sniff a wideout after five yards from the line of scrimmage.
Safeties and corners, who used to smother receivers all the way down the field, are going to be penalized and penalized often. No more bump-and-runs, press coverage, and incidental grabbing of a jersey.
The defense you thought would be great will be allowing more yards in penalties than anything else. Pick the best run-defense team that is available. It's your only hope for the beginning of the season. You can always go to the waiver wire.
A kicker on a high-scoring team is rather useless. If the Rams score 42 and the Cardinals score
9, which kicker would you rather have? Do the math ... six extra points or three field goals.
So, just remember these simple rules and intangibles that I hope can make your 12-spot team a one-spot winner.
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