Rolling the Dice in Los Angeles

The worst thing any GM should do when he's sitting in the top spot in his division and assured of a playoff spot is get content and over-confident. Ask any Seattle or Atlanta fan about the difference between regular season supremacy and postseason glory. If you're not looking to improve, you're risking being overtaken. Dealing from a position of strength is the best time to make a trade and that's exactly what the Dodgers did in late July.

Forget Nomar Garciaparra to the Cubs and the Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza trade, the one late deal that really had October implications was the six-player deal between the Florida Marlins and the Los Angeles Dodgers. This one was all about the Dodgers trying to beat St. Louis in October and GM Paul DePodesta wasn't confident his present rotation could transfer their solid regular season efforts into the glare of the post season. So he rolled the dice, sending catcher Paul Lo Duca, an icon to Dodger fans, setup man Guillermo Mota, and outfielder Juan Encarnacion to Miami.

What Paul DePodesta gained from this deal was a starting pitcher -- and a young one, at that, on a reasonable contract. There's no doubt he wanted Randy Johnson, but would have had to empty the farm system to get him as well as throw in $15 million a year for two years. The last thing the Dodgers want is Arizona loaded with young talent from the Dodgers' farm system three years down the line when Randy is sitting at home watching the Fishing Channel.

So Paul DePodesta went to Plan B. Brad Penny, one year off a World Series ring, is no Big Unit, but he's got talent, a strong arm, and experience for a young guy. He's a potential number two starter in the majors. What's more, this deal allows DePodesta to tinker with his bullpen and more than cover the loss of Mota, a fact I've not seen discussed by the numerous critics of this trade.

Assuming Hideo Nomo is ready for the playoffs, the Dodgers can field a four-man rotation of Odalis Perez, Nomo, Penny, and a revitalized Jeff Weaver. That puts spot starters Jose Lima and Wilson Alvarez, both having strong seasons, back in the 'pen, along with lefty Kaz Ishii. Without Penny in the rotation, one of those three is lost to the bullpen, maybe even two of them if Jim Tracey is cautious.

Nomo is still a question mark, going 3-10 with a bloated ERA of 8.06 before a rotator cuff problem put him on the DL. Even more reason to grab Penny with October in mind. But if he comes through his rehab assignment, Nomo is a lock for the postseason rotation.

What exactly did Paul DePodesta give up in order to grab some pop at first base and a solid starting pitcher? Juan Encarnacion is no great loss, but Paul Lo Duca is a fine catcher, calls a solid game, and can hit for average. Plus, he brings a positive attitude to work every day. On the downside, Lo Duca wears down after the break, is essentially a singles hitter who can hit the other way and is 32.

Mota is by far the bigger loss, with a high-90s fastball, an intimidating attitude, and a killer change-up. Eric Gagne will miss him most, but he's not irreplaceable.

Wilson Alvarez and Jose Lima have alternated between starting and anchoring a strong bullpen. Alvarez, in particular, prefers the bullpen to starting and can get both righties and lefties out. Lima has been a revelation since stepping into the rotation. Though his velocity is down from his heyday, he keeps the ball low and can throw a change up and slider. If Nomo falters, Lima will fill in more than adequately.

So essentially, DePodesta has lost a singles hitting catcher and a quality setup man for a strong starter and a backup first baseman with some pop in his bat (Hee Seop Choi). With Steve Finley coming across from Arizona, Dave Roberts was surplus to requirements and while his stolen bases will be missed (33 as of August 13th), his average (.253) is woeful for a lead-off man.

If I was a Dodgers fan, I'd be cock-a-hoop at the changes Paul DePodesta has made to the roster, but the criticism from fans and writers alike has been brutal. I suspect this is based on sentiment rather than fact. Lo Duca is the sort of hard-playing and honest veteran that everyone, quite rightly, loves. And there's no doubt that DePodesta got caught with his pants down when Charles Johnson refused to waive his no-trade clause and join Los Angeles. But the Dodgers have enough pop in their lineup to compensate for Lo Duca's loss.

Dave Roberts was also a fan favorite, though with less justification. A poor man's Ichiro, Roberts has an OBP of .353, appallingly low for a man with the speed to beat out infield hits. Quite rightly, Paul DePodesta dumped him for what he could get, given a crowded outfield.

Even though St. Louis has, by far, the better regular season record, I'm actually confident that the Dodgers can beat the Cards over seven games. Odalis Perez has took the loss or no-decision in nine games where he's given up two runs or less -- a phenomenally unlucky record. His ERA is less than 3.00. Jeff Weaver is looking like the man we saw in Detroit, and Brad Penny has an ERA of 3.02. Hideo Nomo is potentially the best of the lot at his peak.

Matched against Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Matt Morris, and Woody Williams, I like the look of Jim Tracey's rotation -- as we all know October is about pitching. The Cards have the hitters -- Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, etc., but good hitters struggle to dominate against the very best pitching.

Come late October, I have the feeling that Paul DePodesta could be forgiven for saying, "I told you so."

Comments and Conversation

August 26, 2004

Kevin J. Moore:

You failed to mention once DePodesta’s reliance on Dreifort as Mota’s replacement as a set up man. And how has Dreifort faired in the past and now? The same as he always has. He got injured. Now what are the Dodgers going to do? You seem to think that Nomo is on top of his game. He is far from it, and will not last in the starters position, thus allowing Lima or Alvarez to go back to the Pen. But neither one of these guys is a set up man. The loss of Mota has proven, and will continue to prove, to be the biggest give away and mistake that DePodesta and his Moneyball has made.

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