Before getting too far along, in the interest of full disclosure, I performed this prediction thing before last season, but didn't publish anything. As it turns out, I was better off not publishing anything. As I go through my selections this year, I'll note how I fared last year, as if that provides sort of legitimacy (it does not). Still, let's tackle everyone's new favorite football conference. Everyone's but mine, that is.
ACC
After hijacking the Big East Conference of three of its top-five teams, the ACC has been declared to be a football super conference. I would argue this, and I will, but not today. Today, I'll note that the big-time hype surrounded two ACC teams this time last season: North Carolina State and University of Virginia.
Well, I bought into the hype, but neither finished as high as was expected by the college football cognoscenti. With that in mind, and with Virginia once again a super-hyped team, I'm going against the cognoscenti, who time and again prove that they don't know much about college football.
1. Florida State 10-1 (Last year's prediction: 9-3; Actual: 10-2)
The ACC is Florida State's conference. That's all. They have owned the conference as long as they've been in it, and while Miami will challenge them in a year or two, the conference doesn't change hands this year.
2. Maryland 9-2 (12-0; 9-3)
Everyone wants to count out Maryland this year, and next year, and the year after, because of Miami and Virginia Tech. Everyone seems to fail to recognize the Ralph Friedgen remains the conference's best coach. They'll lose their annual matchup with FSU, but otherwise, breeze through the conference.
3. Miami 9-2 (10-2; 10-2)
I had the 'Canes pegged last year, but last year was different. They were playing teams they knew, and teams one could pretty well guess outcomes against. Still, the new conference changes little. The Hurricanes are just not as good as advertised, nor as good as they've been. A third-place finish is something that won't sit well in South Florida. Coker's job will be in question in two years.
4. Virginia Tech 8-4 (6-6; 8-5)
The Hokies actually get a break this season. Aside from their season-opener against the co-national champion Southern Cal Trojans and a season-ending game against Miami, the middle of the schedule is easier than its been. Either that, or Tech will choke against weaker competition than they did in the Big East. And no, I don't really care for the Hokies.
5. Georgia Tech 7-4 (7-6; 7-6)
I like the Yellow Jackets. They need another year, though. And a receiver. And health.
6. Virginia 6-5 (9-3; 7-5)
As I noted before, the Cavaliers were over-hyped and drinkers of the Cavalier Kool-Aid got taken for a ride. Al Groh has done a nice job, but Matt Schaub's steadiness kept the Cavs alive more often than not. Shaub is gone, as are the Cavs' hopes for finishing better than fifth in a tougher conference.
7. Clemson 6-5 (6-6; 8-4)
Everyone's darling is this year's peach pit. The Tigers finished the season strong, but don't expect the same this year. QB Charlie Whitehurst is, in my opinion, highly overrated. The Tigers lack a viable running attack, and just never seem tough enough when the cards are on the table. The calls for Bowden's job, quieted, will be vigorously renewed by midseason. And it won't be entirely fair: make no mistake, this team overachieved last season.
8. NC State 4-7 (10-2; 7-5)
They struggled in Philip Rivers' final year, unhealthy and a little bit under the gun, having been expected to be better than they were. Rivers was good enough to push a mediocre team to over .500. Rivers isn't even playing football right now. Maybe they can beg an extra year of eligibility?
9. Wake Forest 4-7 (3-9; 5-7)
More of the same in Winston-Salem. A tough team that just doesn't have enough talent.
10. North Carolina 2-9 (3-9; 2-10)
Umm ... is it trite to suggest that basketball season starts in November?
11. Duke 2-9 (3-9; 4-8)
Ditto.
Sun Belt Conference
No one outside the Sun Belt even knows this conference exists. Which suits them just fine, since they sport three of the worst teams in college football.
1. North Texas 10-1 (9-3; 9-3)
The best team in the conference. When they move to the Big 12 to replace Baylor is anyone's guess.
2. Troy State 7-4 (2-10; 6-6)
Better than much of the Sun Belt, and a new member this season, the Trojans will enjoy a fine debut season in the conference.
3. Utah State 5-6 (3-9; 3-9)
The Aggies will be looking to improve on their first season in the Sun Belt and will be playing in their last year in the Sun Belt this year. Oh, those wacky conference shuffles of summer, 2003!
4. New Mexico State 4-7 (6-6; 3-9)
I overrated them last year. Not so much this time around.
5. Arkansas State 4-7 (5-7; 5-7)
They don't like losing seven games a year. They just do it.
6. Louisiana-Monroe 3-8 (3-9; 1-11)
Why? Why? Why must we suffer the U of La schools in Division 1-A?
7. Middle Tennessee State 3-8 (8-4; 4-8)
I meant to reverse my picks last year. Also, shouldn't this conference be called the State University Conference? Yes ... the SUC.
8. Louisiana-Lafayette 3-8 (3-9; 4-8)
Gotta love the mascot name: Ragin' Cajuns. Which sort of explains the futility of their football team, when you think about it.
9. Idaho 2-9 (2-10; 3-9)
At least they get to finish the season in Hawaii.
Coming up next time: the SEC. Stay tuned!
August 19, 2004
Kevin Beane:
Hey Dave,
I’m leaving this comment for two reasons. 1). Ironically, MY ACC predictions are submitted and should be posted tomorrow and 2.) Having yet to see a comment posted on anyone’s article, I thought I’d pop the cork.
We had similar thoughts about Florida State an Miami, but you can count me in on Clemson’s bandwagon. Even if Whitehurst IS overrated (and he is not, IMO), it will be hard to tell this year, without many great qb’s in this league. Excellent secondary, as well. As you feel about Clemson and Whitehurst’s overrated-ness, I feel about Friedgen and Maryland. I’m not sure they will EVER beat Florida State, as the ‘Noles seem to be in their head, and I won’t be surprised to see more clunkers like last year against NIU, who turned out only to the be the third best team….in the MAC…..West. Maryland will soon turn back into a pumpkin.
August 26, 2004
Dave:
I thought I commented, but it turns out I’m the pumpkin. That is, bumpkin.
Anywho… I had written this wonderful response, deconstructing Clemson and building up Maryland.
I’ll just say this right now, though.
Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.
Maryland does have FSU in its head, no debate there, but there’s something to finishing strong. Year in and year out, Friedgen has the Terps finishing the season strong every year, and this year should be no different. New backfield, but it’ll all come together in time.
Not in time to knock the ‘Noles, perhaps.
And, I just don’t get the world’s love for NCSU and UVa and Clemson. Of the three, I suppose I’d hang my hat on Clemson, but T Bowden just ain’t his daddy. A strong finish last year doesn’t make weak showings the previous two seasons go away. I’m firmly affixed in my non-Clemson fanhood, but not as firmly as I am in my belief that NCSU and UVa will be also-rans by season’s end.
Dave