At the start of 2004, I conveyed to others that Tiger Woods was the favorite, and my selection, to win the Masters; his fourth in his career, which would have tied him with Arnold Palmer. I also mentioned, in the same flippant and far-reaching manner, that if Mr. Woods failed to prevail at Augusta National, the year would close without a Tiger triumph -- not liking his chances at Shinnecock Hills, Royal Troon, or Whistling Straits.
I was wrong on the first account and correct on the second, make of that what you will. But that was then, 2005, for all intents and purposes, is a mere eight months away. In 2005, Tiger Woods will have his best season since 2002 and may rival his dominance of 2000. Oh, and one more thing ... however lengthy the "streak," it ends at St. Andrews next July. In 2005, the game's greatest player will likely enter double digits -- or face the real possibility that 19 career majors is gone forever.
Indeed, it may already be too late, particularly if Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson contend on Sunday time after time, to say nothing of Vijay Singh's likely emergence as the number one player in the world. In an era where Shaun Micheel, Todd Hamilton, and yes, Ben Curtis, are claiming major championships, there just might not be enough slots remaining in Tiger's career. But, if Tiger can get to 10 next summer, that would leave him his entire 30s and maybe some of his 40s to nail down nine more and displace the Golden Bear.
Next year, Tiger Woods, if healthy, will play at Augusta National, Pinehurst, St. Andrews, and Baltustrol. Let us examine these courses one at a time. Down in Georgia, Woods has won thrice, and should always be considered the odds-on favorite to win, or retain, the Green Jacket. Tiger's swing is still only coming around and I look for his strongest showing at Bobby Jones's course since 2002, which, of course, he won.
Mickelson, Singh, Els, and David Duval (do not laugh too hard, the 2001 British Open champion played magnificently at Augusta from 1998-2001 -- with his exemption running out, here is the opportunity) may upend Woods, but Eldrick should play well.
In 1999, I had the fortune to attend the United States Open Golf Championship, contested on the number two course at Pinehurst, N.C. I witnessed Tiger at the practice range within a distance of a few feet, and wondered if his winless streak might end with an Open trophy. It nearly did. Despite a strong start on Sunday, Woods failed to make clutch putts on the backside, having to settle for an even-par 70, and a third-place finish. Shinnecock was not a Tiger course, Pinehurst is -- possibly unblemished heading into the Old Course?
Jack Nicklaus won just three British Opens, I say "just" because the two-time U.S. Amateur champion won six Masters, four U.S. Opens, and five PGA Championships. I often invoke that statement when characterizing "The Open Championship" as the most difficult of the four majors, although citing Hamilton and Curtis bolster the argument, as well.
As of 2004, Tiger is on a similar path, for despite impressive performances at Royal Birkdale (1998) and Royal St. George's (2003), he has earned only one claret jug. Ah, but the locale of his only triumph is up again on the rota, in the form of the Old Course at St. Andrews. Carnoustie it is not. Woods, though Duval nipped at his heels for roughly 70 holes, smashed through the Royal and Ancient's archaic prize in decisive fashion. Not once, all week, did Tiger find a bunker, as he validated his Hall-of-Fame credentials with the vaunted career Grand Slam in 2000.
I once remarked, in a bit of bluster and annoying clairvoyance, that it would be most prudent to bet the house on Mr. Woods at St. Andrews. I stand by that assertion for 2005, although a rejuvenated John Daly (1995 Open Champion at the Old Course) might alter the equation (Tiger appearance at British Open + British Open at St. Andrews = Tiger wins British Open) somewhat, if only marginally. Of all the venues for 2004, Tiger's best shot is in Scotland, not just for his possible first major of the season, but also for the Grand Slam.
Woods has played all of the scheduled major championship courses (four wins and a third), as a professional in a major setting, save one: the New Jersey course that brought Jack Nicklaus two of his four U.S. Opens (1967, 1980). Baltustrol, in my mind, is the one wildcard -- but even here, I like Tiger's chances.
In 1980, Nicklaus outdueled Isao Aoki and earned a Golf Magazine bonus for breaking the old scoring record (set by Jack in '67, when he broke Ben Hogan's cumulative total at Baltustrol); in 1993, Lee Janzen roared past a beguiled Payne Stewart and ensured Baltustrol's demotion from the United States Golf Association "most favored for an Open" list with his final total.
Truthfully, Baltustrol is rivaled only by Oakmont C.C. in terms of USGA competitions, and the '05 PGA selection reaffirms its top-flight status. Given the PGA of America's more favorable stance toward low-scoring, it might yield another record in 2005, and maybe, just maybe, sporting history, as well.
I have presented the rosy side of the picture for Mr. Woods, but I am reminded of the old adage that there are two sides to every coin. Failure to prevail at any of the aforementioned sites in 2005 will substantially increase the pressure on Tiger ("When is he gonna win again?"), notwithstanding that 14 majors without a win is not necessarily a setting of the sun.
Tiger Woods still sends a shadow over all of his competitors, although it is not the pervasive blanket that enveloped the field until the wind (and other elements) came up at a Saturday's Muirfield. However, should Tiger conclude another winless campaign, his aura will evaporate entirely, relegating him not to his position prior to the 1999 PGA Championship (which he won at Medinah) but to the 1997 Masters, when he was not the bookie's choice.
Four majors in a row, although he has some experience with this run of excellence, would be an incredible accomplishment, even if the courses seemed tailor-made for such show. I will posit that four in '05 is perhaps Tiger's last real chance to bag them all, before a new generation arises to combat the Tiger in his 30s. Three majors? I will not say it is likely, but it is certainly more than possible. If Tiger plays .500, the year is an unqualified success and all the Jack talk will resume.
I'll wager that Mr. Woods would be thrilled to win just one major next year, but in my mind (like 2000 would have been, except that he rose to the challenge and conquered Pebble Beach and St. Andrews, as expected), that would be a disappointment. I've already discussed the ramifications of another 0-fer, so let us dispense with the final matter.
If the Grand Slam, as envisioned by Arnold Palmer in 1960, is ever to be attained, 2005 is the year and Tiger Woods is the golfer. For the last 10 major championships, rivals and even relatively unknown golfers have seized the opening left by a certain disoriented and disheveled Woods. Congratulations to all of those golfers, from Els to Singh, for wisking away the major championships while hope beckoned, while the master-and-still-never-missed-a-major-cut Tiger lay in wait.
In eight months, we'll see if the year's most anticipated movie (Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith) is accompanied by the most anticipated "comeback" in the sporting world.
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