Okay, so I've fallen a bit behind on my conference previews, and the season is coming up fast, as is my upcoming trip to the land of tulips and cannabis, Holland. So I'm going to start doubling up my conference previews. The sacrifice is that I'm not going to be as expansive in my reviews as I have been; about a paragraph or so per team, fewer for the lesser lights.
This week, we look at the Big 10 and Pac-10.
Sure, Michigan and Ohio State get all the love, but the Big 10 has seen eight of 11 teams crowned conference champs or co-champs since Penn State joined the league in 1993. And with, yes, eight out of 11 teams breaking in new quarterbacks this year, the league should be wide open once again.
Big 10
1. Michigan (10-1 overall, 7-1 conference): Loss to Iowa aside, Michigan was the best team in the Big 10 last year by a much more significant margin than the Big 10 is used to seeing ... enough so that teams can, and will, close the gap on the Wolverines, but not enough to overtake them. The schedule is fairly kind, and the back seven on defense is one of the best in the country.
T2. Ohio State (9-2, 6-2).: Ohio State may never having a sub .500 record again, but this may be the year the ball finally stops bouncing the Buckeyes' way. Road trips to Iowa and North Carolina State are never fun, but worst of all will be the trip to West Lafayette, playing in the backyard of a Purdue team that the Buckeyes have yanked the hearts out of two consecutive years. Considering his rating as the top high school quarterback in the country in 2002, Justin Zwick has underwhelmed on the redshirt team and in spring practice. All of this, and yet it's still hard to imagine the Buckeyes finishing any worse than 6-2 in the conference.
T2. Purdue (9-2, 6-2): In a league where almost everyone is searching for answers at quarterback, Purdue is more than good to go with Kyle Orton, who seemingly has been at Purdue for 10 years. He's a lock for All-Big 10 quarterback. and his value cannot be underestimated in a league where quarterbacking is not a strength. Oh yes, and they get both Michigan and Ohio State at home.
4. Michigan State (7-4, 5-3): Okay, John L. Smith, how great of a coach are you, really? We'll find out this year, because not only is Pax Movie of the Week quarterback Jeff Smoker gone, but Smith is seriously shuffling the deck, moving his top two returning rushers over to the defense. Still, it's hard to bet against a team that looked a lot worse on paper going into last year than they do this year, and last year they ended up 5-3 in the conference.
T5. Wisconsin (5-6, 4-4): It's tempting to just crown the Badgers Big 10 champs right now, because they seem to shine and come up big when least expected -- and horribly flop when much is expected. Running Back Anthony Davis is trying to shake the rust off from his injuries, and Wisconsin must travel to Iowa and Purdue.
T5. Northwestern (6-5, 4-4): One of my better picks last year, the Wildcats did indeed surprise their way to a 4-4 conference finish. With almost everyone returning on defense and a good 1-2 punch on offense with quarterback Brett Basanez and running back Noah Herron, there's no reason they can't do it again.
T5. Iowa (7-4, 4-4): The Hawkeyes remained poised and successful last year on the heels of their surprising undefeated conference season the year before. This speaks volumes about what kind of a coach Kirk Ferentz is, and this year he is rewarded with an easy schedule (Michigan us the only road toughie, where they won in 2002). But with only two starters returning on offense, Iowa will struggle to score points. Another successful year may well mean Ferentz moves on to greener pastures.
T5. Penn State (6-5, 4-4): I'm not as reverential as most are about Joe Paterno, but no way is he going to allow another season as disastrous as the last in Happy Valley. They have some talent on both sides of the ball, and I expect the Lions to recover somewhat from the hangover of losing so many draftees as they did after 2002.
9. Minnesota (6-5, 3-5): 3-5 in the conference may be a tad generous with teams like Northwestern and Penn State having a good chance at catching them from behind and big questions to answer at quarterback and at safety. Yes, I know they have one of the great running back tandems in the league, but, well, didn't they last year as well? Uninspiring.
10. Indiana (2-9, 1-7): Last year in this space, based on nothing more than the shrewd hiring of Gerry DiNardo as coach, I predicted the Hoosiers to be a team to watch out for in 2004. I take it back. I still see DiNardo as a great coach, but I also expected to see at least a tiny amount of progress last year, and I didn't see it.
11. Illinois (1-10, 0-8): In five years, the Illini faithful has seen Illinois go from winless to Big 10 champs to back to winless in the conference last year, a horrid roller coaster ride, indeed. Indiana and Illinois were far and away the worst the Big 10 has to offer, and with fewer starters and letterman returning than Indiana, they ain't catching the Hoosiers this year, either.
Pac-10
Not much to say about the Pac-10 in terms of a preface, except that this looks to be a league in serious decline, so much so that I want to call them the Pac-2 and Pac Junior Varsity-8. Those two, however, are as good as any two conference partners in the country.
1. USC (12-0, 8-0): In my USC preview last year, I made much of the absolutely huge shoes an unknown by the name of Matt Leinart had to fill coming in for Carson Palmer. Seeing what he accomplished last year, I am reminded of a Sporting News preview publication from 1988, I believe. They had a little sidebar about Oklahoma State, and how difficult it would be to replace Thurman Thomas, but this guy named Barry Sanders was going to try. Anything less than a national championship, undisputed this time, will be a disappointment.
2. Cal (10-1, 7-1): Another top-five team -- in the country. I am not real sure there is a better coach in the land than Jeff Tedford. He's won with a laughingstock program. He's won while on probation. He's won returning five starters total. Now that he has none of those disadvantages ... well, sucks they have to play in the same league as USC, and that the game will be played in Los Angeles, with the Trojans thinking revenge. Still, get the popcorn ready. I'm seeing it as the regular season game of the year, all conferences included.
T3. Washington State (8-3, 5-3): As quietly as can be, the Cougars have racked up three-straight 10-win seasons, and yet somehow, they remain outside of the national consciousness when discussing perennially solid programs. During their successful run, Washington State has shown themselves to be quite proficient at turning lemons into lemonade, which is why I have a feeling they will surprise people again this year despite breaking in a new quarterback and returning only two starters on defense. Call it a hunch. Plus, Cal isn't on the schedule.
T3. Oregon (7-4, 5-3): The Ducks have to still be giddy from knocking off Michigan last year, and they miss USC on the schedule this year. With nine starters returning on offense, they should be even more explosive than usual, but they have some serious linebacking corps questions to answer, and an early trip to Oklahoma could be demoralizing.
T3. Oregon State (7-4, 5-3): O-R-E-G-O-N S-T-A-T-E is how you spell average. They would actually have a chance to be a bit better than average if quarterback Derek Anderson had better options for handing off the ball, but at least the line will be solid. They have Oregon at home, and should have no problems with the teams listed below, but it's hard to expect much more than that out of them.
6. Arizona State (4-7, 3-5): Last year, I picked ASU to be Pac-10 champions. You know the saying about fooling me once and fooling me twice. A lot of publications are indeed picking them as a darkhorse again this year, but with a patchwork defensive line and the bitter taste of last year still in my mouth, I can pull the trigger on these guys. Making predictions based on spite: it's why they pay me the big bucks.
T6. UCLA (5-6, 3-5): It was just 1998, six short years ago, that it was UCLA that only had a single, controversial loss that kept them from the National Championship game, and USC that was the Los Angeles team we snickered at. Then again, in 1998 Oklahoma hadn't turned the tables on Nebraska either. Karl Dorrell, in the long run, will turn out to be a fine coach for the Bruins, and most of the offense returns, but that might not be a good thing. This is a team blindsided by USC and is staggering, searching for its identity.
T8. Washington (3-8, 2-6): Hey, remember the '80s, when Clemson was good? Remember the '90s, when Texas A&M was good? Washington is next in line in that sentence. With a tricky schedule and the remaining effects of last year's on-and-off-the-field turmoil smoldering, this team needs a shot in the arm. I'm just not convinced that Keith Gilbertson is the man to give it to them. Large holes need filled on both sides of the ball, and the schedule isn't kind.
T8. Arizona (3-8, 2-6): Last year, Arizona was to me what the Expos are to Jay Leno. I made constant jokes about their ineptitude and called them the worst team in a BCS conference. Well, by gum, the endless night is finally giving way to dawn. The players are thrilled to have the specter of John Mackovic behind them, and there is finally room for modest optimism in Tucson. Eight defensive starters return for defensive genius Mike Stoops to work with, Arizona will pull a shocker against an upper-division Pac-10 foe (I'm not sure who, but I'm still calling it).
10. Stanford (1-10, 0-8): When Tyrone Willingham ripped Stanford's heart out to go coach Notre Dame, do you think he showed it to them before they died? Stanford is a cadaver program, and Willingham did lead them to a Pac-10 championship and a Rose Bowl appearance before he left. Now, the school with the Ivy League reputation plays football indeed well-suited for Ivy League-level acumen. No offensive experience, but the defense may keep them in some games through the third quarter.
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