Baseball’s Golden Rule

Reversion to the mean.

It sounds so technical, so business school. But in reality, reversion to the mean is merely a common sense principle. Reversion to the mean is guided by the law of averages. Mean is a more sophisticated term for average.

In other words, an old dog can't change his spots -- or at least not permanently.

Baseball lives by reversion to the mean, hence the focus on averages and statistics. For every year a Brady Anderson belts out 50 homeruns, there's a whole career worth of seasons where he barely hovers around 20. He reverted to the mean (or, as some suspect, reverted back to the over-the-counter stuff).

If we look around the majors, we see players and teams doing what they should be doing and what they have been doing. There's no better example than the Atlanta Braves. The Braves were supposedly rebuilding this year, in transition. The pundits didn't have them contending. Instead, it was the new-school Marlins and can't-miss Phillies turn to rise to the top. Here we are past the All-Star Break and the Braves are threatening to run away and hide -- with the division crown.

Surprised? You shouldn't be. The Braves have been winning division titles since I was in high school. I'm almost 30! Wake me when the NL East does not go through Atlanta.

Did you really think Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore would contend just because of hot starts? History indicates otherwise and -- surprise, surprise (not!) -- they all faded away like a child actor after the hit sitcom ends.

Just because HBO put out a dud in Deadwood does not mean cable's best network is dead and buried. And don't you know it, now everyone waits all week to see Entourage. You getting the point?

For teams steeped in history and tradition, reversion to the mean is all too familiar. The Yankees have won World Series championships in nearly one of every four seasons they have played. There's no reason to think that won't continue. By the same token, the Angels and Marlins win it all once in a blue moon, which means they should be quiet for awhile.

Fans count on reversion to the mean. If you go to Wrigley Field and sit through two rain delays and see only Steve Bartman look-alikes in the stands, fear not as you're sure to find beautiful weather and women (and maybe a falling piece of concrete!) the next time out. Keep in mind that the Cubs will probably disappoint you both times and Sammy Sosa's homers will probably be meaningless, but that's just because that's what the Cubs and Sosa do. That's the mean.

You know what I mean?