NL MVP Race Breakdown: Rolen vs. Bonds

When viewing the statistics, even at the halfway point, of one Barry Lamar Bonds, it might be better to assume that .628 (thru 7/11) represents his season SLG or perhaps his batting average in the last five or ten days; either of which stand as very impressive.

Scott Rolen's SLG is just a shade under .600, one of the better efforts on the Senior Circuit. As for getting on base, the Cardinal batsman is scheduled to collect about 200 hits and earn a respectable 71 free passes.

Many people around the league, some for obvious reasons, are pulling for Rolen to keep up his near-prodigious pace -- and take the trophy away from Bonds.

I'm terribly sorry to report ... it is not happening. At least not this year.

In the all-important on-base percentage plus slugging (OPS) category, which is not adjusted for home park, Bonds leads Rolen 1.421 to 1.013. True, Rolen is a far superior defensive player and his team has a better record, but if the Gold Glove recipient cannot cut into a 408-point deficit in this crucial category -- then there is no argument. 1.421, it might go without saying, would set a new league record, owing mostly to the outlandish OBP of the most feared batter since George Herman Ruth.

Everyone knows how great a player Bonds was during the 1990s, winning three MVPs, averaging 30 HR/30 SB a season, and leading all participants in runs-scored. Yet, in the last three or four seasons, he has gone beyond even that Hall of Fame level to become Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Joe DiMaggio rolled into one.

Until 2001, only Ruth had slugged .800 -- Bonds went for an .863 clip during his 73 HR campaign. Until 2002, Williams' ungodly .554 OBP (1941) stood as a marvel; a more impressive achievement than even hitting .406 -- Bonds promptly erased that mark, as well, en route to his second-straight 1.300 OPS season.

Over a magnificent 13-year career, DiMaggio connected for 361 homeruns at the expense of only 369 strikeouts. Since 2002, Bonds has accumulated a 114-124 mark, having not struck out 30 more times than he homered since 1998. Of course, none of these prior exploits should have anything to do with the 2004 season, but if Bonds manages to post 85% of his scheduled pace, then there is little to discuss.

In the past week, Bonds romped through Rickey Henderson's career walks record, and although he will likely not catch Williams in OBP (No. 9=.483, No. 25=.439), he's increased his total by 24 points since 2000 -- all after playing in his 2,000th career game.

My larger point is this: should Bonds reach 200 walks, slug somewhere around .775, and break his own single-season OBP mark, the title has to remain his for at least 2004. Rolen is having a tremendous season, but much like his teammate Albert Pujols (2001-2003), it should not be enough to dethrone the second greatest player in major league history.

Through the halfway point, without any doubt, Barry Bonds deserves his seventh National League MVP Award.

Comments and Conversation

August 14, 2004

Daniel Porcerelli:

I agree with your article and I believe that you wrote this extremely well. GREAT WRITER!

August 17, 2004

lee:

Great comment. Anyone that think Bonds does not deserve this award again…..is really rooting, simply because of hate. Bonds is the greatest of all time. Babe doesn’t come close and I don’t know how people can still try to compare, when u think of the competition level as it is today. Babe didn’t play against the BEST (blacks, hispanics, asians, etcs) Everything he’s done should have an asterisk beside it. Do u agree! Indisputable.

September 7, 2004

pak:

yeah bonds and rolen are the clear canidates for the NL MVP, but you have left out my player who is on the team over in LA. adrian beltre deserves to get some respect in this race. even though stats are a huge importance to the award, adrian beltre has taken this dodger team, that hasn’t reached the playoffs for almost ever, and put them in first place. we all know that the dodgers pitching staff isn’t the best in the majors after giving up mota. so this whole season has been up to the dodgers to come up with run support, beltre has been there almost ever time they needed him. no one else on the dodgers are putting up the numbers that beltre is. rolen is on a team that has, probably, the best line-up in the majors. having puljos, renteria, and edmonds. bonds is bonds. a power hitter, and his team is always is in first place. lets not forget what MVP stands for, Most Valuable Player. and the most valuable player to a team right now is adrian beltre to his dodgers who wouldn’t be in first without him.

October 28, 2005

Carlos Dooku:

Bonds is the greatest player ever-hands down. Nobody has ever reached the level that he has. He is what every player should think of when they think of being the absolute best. He is GOD.

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