When the Washington Capitals won the rights to the 2004 first overall pick in this past April's draft lottery, the consensus amongst fans and media was the club would use the pick to draft Russian forward Alexander Ovechkin.
The Capitals, in serious rebuilding mode after dumping most of their high-paid veteran talent over the course of last season, need a talented young superstar as their foundation player.
By most scouting reports, Ovechkin fits the bill, as he's drawn favorable comparisons to a young Peter Forsberg. A player who can play well at both ends of the rink is a rare catch and one who'd be perfect for the Capitals to build around.
But since winning the rights to the first overall pick, there's been speculation Capitals GM George McPhee might shop the pick for a package of young players.
But why would McPhee trade away the rights to draft a player tagged to be a "sure thing" for a package of young players who, as talented as they may be, aren't on the same level as Ovechkin?
As promising as Ovechkin is, he's still a gamble, like every first-round pick before him. Some first overall picks, like Mario Lemieux and Ilya Kovalchuk, step easily into the NHL and become superstars. Some, like Joe Thornton, Guy Lafleur, and Ed Jovanovski, need a few seasons to adjust to the NHL game before they blossom into stardom.
And some, like the 1974 first overall pick, Greg Joly, who was also drafted by the Washington Capitals, never make it as a star player and quickly disappeared from sight after a disappointing career.
There would also be tremendous pressure on Ovechkin to step right in and become a superstar, to carry the rebuilding Capitals on his young shoulders. That could be a burden too heavy for such a young player to carry.
There are other factors involved, as well. If McPhee trades the picks for a package of two or three good young players, he at least knows for sure what he's getting. He'll know what those players are capable of at the NHL level and if they'll be able to develop further. As good as Ovechkin is projected to be, it's not a lock that he'll adjust well to the NHL game.
As noted earlier in this column, there's the depth factor. The Caps are seriously lacking depth at all positions after their massive fire-sale of veteran talent. The only defenseman of note is Brendan Witt, the only quality goalie in the system is veteran Olaf Kolzig, and both have been the subject of trade speculation for months, something that isn't likely to die down in the near future.
Up front, there's little quality depth beyond Jeff Halpern, Dainius Zubrus, and rookie Alexander Semin. Would it not make more sense, if the right offer were there, to trade away the rights to Ovechkin for a package of quality youngsters to help plug some of those gaps more quickly?
Then, of course, there's the money factor. Ovechkin will seek the maximum salary under the current rookie cap, worth $1.07 million. But that's not counting the bonus clauses he and his agent are bound to seek.
Tally up the bonuses for goals, assists, points, and games played, and you're talking over $3 million per season. Should he win the Calder, that would push it up over $4 million. And if his play by the final year of his deal got the Capitals back into the playoffs, that would also keep it over $4 million per season.
That, of course, is if the Caps are willing to spend that much to sign Ovechkin. While they'll own his rights, it certainly won't look good to the organization to have their star prospect holding out in a salary dispute to start next season.
After the free-spending follies of the past three seasons, team owner Ted Leonsis obviously decided it made more financial sense to return his club to the more tried and true method of building from within and dealing for young, promising talent.
Factor in the uncertainty over the next collective bargaining agreement, and suddenly drafting a player of Ovechkin's talent and paying him nearly $4 million per season doesn't factor in well with the club's bottom line, especially if two or three young players could be had for the same as it would cost to pay Ovechkin.
And let's not forget what happens to players of Ovechkin's talent after his three-year rookie contract expires. Freed of the constraints of that contract, Ovechkin and his agent would pursue a much more lucrative salary. Depending on how well he plays in his first three seasons, he could seek a substantial raise starting at $5 million per season. Those demands would only go up as Ovechkin advances through his twenties.
Ah, but if the league succeeds in getting a hard salary cap into the next CBA, Ovechkin wouldn't be able to seek that much money, right?
To suggest certain GMs wouldn't make a pitch for Ovechkin and pay him a hefty salary under a new CBA with a hard salary cap would be akin to suggesting ten years ago that player salaries wouldn't rise under the current CBA, which has the most restrictive free agency in North American pro sports.
Somebody, somewhere in the NHL would happily pay the luxury tax to have Ovechkin on their team and would pay him whatever he wanted. The last thing the Capitals want is a franchise player staging a lengthy holdout to force the club into paying more than they want to retain him, or to trade him to a club that would pay him a hefty salary.
I may be getting ahead of myself here, but it is something you can bet Leonsis and McPhee have mulled over. After getting burned by big-money talent, they obviously don't wish to repeat the process again.
So as the entry draft weekend approaches, speculation has heated up that McPhee could move the pick. He's hinted that as many as five clubs contacted him over the past month making trade inquiries, while some reports suggest as many as 11 teams could get into the bidding.
One of those clubs was the Florida Panthers, at least until general manager Rick Dudley was axed. New GM Mike Keenan says he isn't interested, but the Panthers are a team with young, affordable talent, some of whom (Kristian Huselius and Stephen Weiss) didn't get along well with Keenan back when he coached the club. One shouldn't rule out the possibility. One team that has admitted pursuing the first overall pick is the Chicago Blackhawks, themselves a rebuilding team loaded with plenty of young, affordable talent.
Once one of the most profitable and popular hockey markets in the United States, the 'Hawks have fallen on hard times in recent years, driving away their once-fanatical fans with years of mediocrity, bungled trades, and financial pettiness. Landing a player of Ovechkin's calibre would be a huge boost to the Blackhawks, for he could become the franchise player who brings back the fans. He'd also be a great fit on a team that, like him, is young and developing.
Blackhawks management obviously want to build their club following the model of this year's Stanley Cup finalists, the Calgary Flames and the champion Tampa Bay Lightning, and could visualize Ovechkin, teamed with the promising Tuomo Ruutu, leading the 'Hawks back to playoff glory.
But who would the Blackhawks part with to land the first overall pick?
Thus far there's been no names mentioned in the Chicago media, other than a report suggesting the only untouchable on the team is Ruutu.
The website BlackhawkZone.com suggested a major deal between the two clubs could be possible, citing an apparent friendship between Leonsis and 'Hawks owner Bill Wirtz.
To quote the report on the site, "they feel that Cam Barker and his sweet outlet passes plus two number two draft picks, along with Tyler Arnason, Kyle Calder, and Steve McCarthy's salaries help out the Capitals in the long run." In return, the report claims the Blackhawks would get the first overall pick which they'd obviously use to select Ovechkin.
A deal of that magnitude hasn't been seen since 1992, when the Philadelphia Flyers dealt six players (including Peter Forsberg, Mike Ricci, Ron Hextall, and Steve Duchesne), two first-round draft choices and $15 million to the Quebec Nordiques for Eric Lindros.
But will such a deal go off? Would the 'Hawks part with such a steep asking price for Ovechkin? Would the Capitals get cold feet and retain the pick after all? Could another team make a richer offer?
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