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Ah, spring: the popping of the catcher's mitt, the crack of the bat, the SportsCenter highlights taken with a single camera from behind the backstop ... With baseball season only a week from the opening bell, here's my AL preview (NL will follow next week).

AL East

The Boston Red Sox return several pieces that are crucial to a championship-caliber team. LF/DH Many Ramirez (.349/.450/.647 -- batting average/on-base percentage/slugging) can flat-out rake, SS Nomar Garciaparra (.310/.352/.528) is quietly the second-best at his position in the game, and RHP Pedro Martinez (2.26 ERA) is arguably the best in the game (or at least in the AL). While no one in Boston is satisfied with last year's 93-69 season, they also shouldn't be too upset about it. If anyone told Boston brass that they'd finish last season with a 13-23 record in one-run games, they would probably assume 93 wins was outside the realm of possibilities.

What to expect in 2003? A division title? Yes. This is the year Beantown will dethrone the Yankees. Last year's 13-23 record was combination of three factors, bullpen strength (or lack thereof), managerial decisions, and luck. This year, the bullpen will be better, manager Grady Little will be better, and luck has a way of evening itself out.

The New York Yankees have missed out on the last two World Series titles. This does not sit well with owner George Steinbrenner. So what to do about it? Naturally, throwing caution to the wind, he went out and bought every player he could. Despite the obvious talent wearing pinstripes, the team is still very old. And very old teams don't win the World Series.

Last year in the playoffs, Yankees manager Joe Torres commented that his team had gotten away from what made it so great in the late '90s: pitching, high on-base percentages, avoiding the strikeout, and solid, mistake-free defense. While New York still has great pitching, not one projected Opening Day starter is under 30 (unless 26-year-old Jeff Weaver gets a rotation slot). Also, other than at third base; Robin Ventura, (and maybe catcher Jorge Posada) no other position is home to a regular that is above-average defensively (yes, that includes SS Derek Jeter). Also, while the Yankee hitters still get on-base at a high rate, they also led the AL in strikeouts.

This year, the defense, the age of the pitching staff, and the lack of hitting depth will cost the Yankees their stranglehold on the AL East division.

The Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in a familiar spot, third place. Unfortunately for the teams above them, this might be the last year they finish this low in quite some time.

The Blue Jays still don't have much pitching behind staff ace, RHP Roy Halladay (2.93 ERA). But GM J.P. Ricciardi is cutting dead weight as quickly as he can identify it and thereby creating opportunities for players who can play.

Notice that the best run organizations don't overpay for talent. Instead, they fill easier roles with cheaper and younger players (especially ones with high upsides) to see if they can swim. Then, when free agency comes around, they'll either trade the player to someone who wants them or non-tender the player if replaceable talent can be easily found. Ricciardi is very quickly building this Blue Jay team with that philosophy.

To paraphrase an example found in Baseball Prospectus' 2003 Edition, when Ricciardi took over, the Toronto bullpen cost over $13 million -- this year, only one Blue Jay reliever is slated to earn over $1 million.

The Tampa Bay Devil Rays really don't have a very good chance of even reaching the playoffs in the next few years. That being said, Lou Piniella always seems to create a team where the sum is truly greater than the total value of the parts. Last year's D'Rays were a 55-win team. This team doesn't look much better in terms of talent, but with Sweet Lou in charge, maybe they'll win 70.

For Devil Ray fans, all hope is not lost. They do have some nice talent in the minors, but the team seems to eschew teaching plate discipline. Unfortunately for those same D-Ray fans, plate discipline is one of the best predictors of future hitting success.

It is possible that Piniella will get the team's developmental taskforce on track. But even if he does, it will take at least four or five years to see the fruit of his labor.

Wow! How the mighty have fallen. It was just 1997 that the Baltimore Orioles won 97 games and reached the playoffs. Now this team has announced that it is projecting David Segui (.263/.336/.368) and Jeff Conine (.273/.307/.448) to bat three and four in their lineup. Now, are things are really as bad as they seem? -- well, maybe they're worse -- but the Orioles do have some decent hitters, but why then are they batting two "has-beens" in the middle of the order? Are they playing for the first pick in the 2004 amateur draft?

Speaking of amateurs -- well, okay, minor-leaguers (close enough), Baltimore has to have one of the two worst collections of minor league talent (I use that word operatively) in all of baseball. As bad as things look for Tampa fans, they look worse for Baltimore's.

AL Central

Chicago kind of lucked their way into first place. Minnesota had a chance to improve their offense this season, but passed (more on that when we talk about the Twins). The White Sox have a young ace, Mark Buehrle, who pitched brilliantly for them the past two years. This offseason they lucked into adding Bartolo Colon to their staff. To make matters worse for the Sox' AL Central foes, they also have one of the top offenses in all of baseball.

Baseball's an easy sport (not really, but follow along). You have two goals: score runs and prevent your opponent from scoring runs. The White Sox pitch and hit as well or better than every other team in their division. As reward for performing those two tasks well, in late September, the White Sox will claim their second division title in three years.

The Minnesota Twins are a developmental juggernaut. Unfortunately for Twins fans, they don't put their best team on the field. Twins owner Carl Pohlad takes a lot of criticism for not investing in his team; and deservedly so. But this offseason, he authorized a two-year extension for LF Jacques Jones.

Now Jones is a good player, but he isn't a great one. Furthermore, one of his best abilities is playing defense in center field. In today's brand of baseball, you can no longer put offensive ciphers on the field just because they play good defense. While Jones is no cipher, he also doesn't have the hitting talent that is available on the Minnesota roster. Bobby Kielty, Dustan Mohr, and Michael Cuddyer are each better hitting options. The Twins should have looked to trade Jones to a team that needed defensive help in CF where Jones' bat would not have made him look bad. As a result of my suggestions, Minnesota would score more runs and Carl could line his pockets with more cash.

The Twins still have solid pitching, so a wild-card birth would not be out of the question. But they will find themselves looking up at the White Sox at the end of this campaign.

Third place should be locked up pretty easily by the Cleveland Indians. While Cleveland fans may not recognize the guys in the Indians uniforms, they'll be pretty happy and quite hopeful based on what they see on the field. 1B Travis Hafner is essentially a poor man's Jim Thome -- do you think former Cleveland GM John Hart, now the GM in Texas, felt bad about all the talent he let out the back door of Cleveland and traded Hafner to the Indians as retribution?

Me, either, I think he just doesn't spend enough time thinking things through.

Young Indians' pitchers C.C. Sabathia, Ricardo Rodriguez, and Cliff Lee should frontline this staff for years to come.

Expect the Indians to contend for a division title as early as 2005.

Kansas City fans must have sold their soul to the devil in the late-'70s and early-'80s. Now they're paying the piper. It's really amazing when you look at all the talent that has come out of KC over the last decade-plus. Of course, giving playing time to veterans like Chuck Knoblauch when you're trying to develop young talent smacks of idiocy.

This season Royal fans could watch both CF Carlos Beltran and 1B Mike Sweeny hit the road. But it could be worse for Royal fans ...

... They could be Tiger fans ... Detroit has a few exciting players this year. Okay, let me back up ... Detroit has an exciting player this year ... Carlos Pena should improve after a rough rookie campaign.

No, I'm being mean. Detroit does have a few pitchers who could be solid/useful big leaguers. They even a few future stars in the minor leagues. Unfortunately, they're about a lock to lose 100 games again this season.

They moved the fences in a little bit in Detroit's Comerica Field, but while the homerun total will rise, the win total will not.

AL West

I'm not going to break it down and get too specific (space doesn't permit it), but the Oakland Athletics doled out the majority of its DH at-bats to David Justice, Scott Hatteberg, and Ray Durham. While all three are solid contributors, none of them can hit like Erubiel Durazo (well, Justice used to be able to hit like Durazo can).

I think you get my point.

The American League DH rule allows teams to put a bruiser of a guy who can flat-out rake in their lineup without addressing his defensive deficiencies (Durazo can play 1B, but not much better than Jose Conseco could play outfield).

Adding Durazo to a lineup that already has reigning MVP SS Miguel Tejada, 3B Eric Chavez, and RF Jermaine Dye will make life very difficult for the opponents' pitching staffs.

Oh, and by the way, the starting pitching rotation and bullpen are better and deeper.

The reigning World Series Champions, Anaheim Angels head into 2003 with virtually the same cast of ragamuffins that Southern California fell in love on the way to last year's magical finish. And yes, that includes the Rally Monkey -- oh yeah, and they have a "For Sale" sign on their backs.

While there isn't one player that played so far above his head last year that it looked like an aberration, everyone but 3B Troy Glaus did play above projections. If those same players maintain last year's level and Troy plays like he did in last year's playoffs, then guys like me will have to rethink the Anaheim style of baseball.

That said, I don't expect every one of the Angels to play at that high level. Anaheim should again finish in second place, but this year, the wild card won't come from the West.

A few weeks ago, I said that Buck Showalter was the most astute managerial hire of the offseason. He'll vindicate my judgment by guiding the Texas Rangers out of the cellar.

Texas' pitching staff still leaves room for improvement (okay, lots of room). But under Buck's and pitching coach Orel Hershiser's tutelage, Ranger fans should see marked improvement. Furthermore, the Rangers have hitting talent to deal and solid pitching prospects on the cusp of The Show.

On the offensive side of things, Texas plays on a field about as small as the backyard we played in when we were 11. Add the greatest-hitting SS in baseball history, Alex Rodriguez, a Hall of Fame first baseman, Rafael Palmeiro, a two-time AL MVP outfielder, Juan Gonzalez, and the Rangers might finally score those 1000 runs we've been hearing about ever since they signed A-Rod (Texas scored 843 in 2002, and 890 in 2001).

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. I wonder if there has ever been another team like the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners won 116 games one year, 93 the next while missing out on second place, they will finished in the cellar in this, the third year. Just like I said last year about Texas, there are no bad teams in the AL West. In the Central division, Seattle could challenge for third and in the East, they'd be ahead of Baltimore and Tampa.

The reason I picked Seattle last is because DH Edger Martinez is old and brittle, and RF Ichiro doesn't hit many HR. In today's long-ball game, teams don't win without hitting homeruns and getting on-base. Compared to the other powerful lineups in the AL West, the Mariners are left wanting (and no, Seattle fans, I didn't forget about 2B Brett Boone and CF Mike Cameron).

To make matters worse, the once-vaunted Seattle pitching staff looks to be a shell of its former self. Help in on its way, but when the help gets there, the barn may be burnt to the ground.

***

In a week, I'll be back to preview the National League.

I may think this every year, but I am particularly excited about this season. Please feel free to write ([email protected]) if you like/dislike/or want to correct anything I've said.

Also, be sure to check out Peter's Inside Pitch, where Paul Reams and I write about our hometown Padres in a discussion format.

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