Thursday, July 15, 2004
Triple Crown Immune to Offensive Inflation
Over the past few years, as baseball's offensive numbers have reached mind-boggling levels, purists have decried the dilution of certain standards of greatness. The 50-homerun season has become commonplace, dozens of players top the century mark in RBIs each year, and the 500 Homerun Club has welcomed one fourth of its 20 members in the past five years.
But as today's sluggers continue their onslaught on the record book, one exclusive club remains beyond their reach. In the history of Major League Baseball, only 17 times has a player won his league's Triple Crown, a remarkable feat that is accomplished by leading the league in batting average, homeruns, and RBIs.
This 15-player club (Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby turned the trick twice each) hasn't inducted a new member since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, and there are no signs that it will be opening its doors any time soon.
A quick perusal of the top ten in the three Triple Crown categories in each of the past nine years reveals that few players have even come close to this elusive goal. (Ten years would've been a good sample size, but it didn't seem right to include the strike-shortened 1994 campaign.)
Only 48 times has a hitter appeared in the top-10 of all three leaderboards in the same year, 24 times in each league. While this might seem like a high number, it's important to look at just how high these players ranked on each list.
By assigning points to the league rankings in descending order (10 points for first place, nine for second, etc., similar to the MVP voting), we can separate the great years from the good ones. Take a look at the top seasons below, and remember that a Triple Crown season would earn 30 points.
Player Year Total
1. Dante Bichette 1995 28
2. Larry Walker 1997 27
3. Albert Belle 1998 26
4. Todd Helton 2001 25
5. Manny Ramirez 1999 24
5. Todd Helton 2000 24
5. Barry Bonds 2002 24
8. Albert Belle 1995 23
9. Luis Pujols 2003 23
10. Andres Galarraga 1997 22
10. Sammy Sosa 2001 22
10. Alex Rodríguez 2001 22
Some of the above players earned their points without winning any of the individual categories. Four times in the past nine years, however, a player has actually led his league in two of the three Triple Crown categories while remaining in the top-10 in the third. Albert Belle (.317/50/126) and Dante Bichette (.340/40/128) in 1995, and Todd Helton (.372/42/147) in 2000.
Belle, however, finished 39 points behind Edgar Martinez in the American League batting race, and Bichette trailed Tony Gwynn by 28 points in the National League. Helton easily won the batting and RBI titles in 2000, but hit eight fewer homeruns than Sammy Sosa.
Timing plays a critical part in a hitter's pursuit of the Triple Crown. Not only does a hitter have to have a great season in all three categories (the average leaders over the past nine years have finished at .350/51/146 in the AL and .365/54/143 in the NL), he can't afford to have any other hitter put up big numbers. If Barry Bonds hits 73 homers or Nomar Garciaparra hits .372, the Triple Crown is almost impossible.
In fact, look at the lowest totals for the leaders over the past decade. The AL lows are .326 (Bill Mueller, 2003), 47 homeruns (Alex Rodriguez, 2003, and Troy Glaus, 2000), and 126 RBIs (Belle and Mo Vaughn, 1995). The NL leaders bottom out at .350 (Larry Walker, 2001), 40 (Bichette, 1995), and 128 (Lance Berkman, 2002).
Putting those together into two hypothetical seasons (.326/47/126 and .350/40/128) allows for an interesting comparison with the Triple Crown contenders over the past nine years. Only three players have had seasons that would top those numbers: Belle in 1998 (.328/49/152) in the American League, and Walker in 1995 (.366/49/130), and Helton in 2000 (.372/42/147) in the National League.
While it may seem that some of today's best hitters might have a shot at winning the Triple Crown, the proliferation of sluggers actually decreases the chances that any single player will top his league in batting average, homeruns, and RBIs. At the 2004 All-Star Break, for example, there are only two players (Manny Ramírez and Vladimir Guerrero) in the top-10 of all three categories.
And so who among today's players have the best chance of Triple Crowning? There are only four hitters, two in each league.
Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox: He consistently hits for high average, the Green Monster beckons in left field, and Boston's explosive lineup gives him plenty of RBI opportunities.
Vladimir Guerrero, Anaheim Angels: Pitchers can't pitch around Guerrero, because he swings at (and hits) everything. He also benefits from a high-scoring offense.
Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: This young hitter seems to get better each year. His average still hasn't recovered from an early-season slump, but his power numbers are as solid as ever.
Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies: Two words: Coors Field. In the past nine years, five different Colorado players (Helton, Walker, Bichette, Andres Galarraga, and Preston Wilson) have led the National League in at least one of the three Triple Crown categories, accounting for 12 of the 27 individual championships. 2002 was the only year without a Rockie atop any of the leader boards. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise to see Helton parlay this advantage into a Triple Crown.
But even as these four players and others strive towards the hitter’s holy grail, the current members of baseball's most distinguished club can rest easily. Long after the 500 Homerun Club has swollen into irrelevance, the Triple Crown Club's exclusivity will set it apart.